1. The Modern Revolution

2. Index
Part A: The Modern Revolution Part B: The Industrial Revolution Part C: 20th and 21st Centuries Part D: The Future

3. Part A: The Modern Revolution
Since 1750 the world has been transformed!
This transformation is as fundamental as
The appearance of Agriculture
The appearance of Civilizations
It created the world we live in today
We call this transition: the ‘Modern Revolution’
We are still in the middle of it so we
cannot see it so clearly

4. Some Features of the ‘Modern Revolution’
End of old, agrarian lifeways
Rapid population growth & longer lives
Technological innovation & increased productivity
Transformed communications systems
Increasing power of states
Transformed lifeways, dominated by towns
New ways of thought
Acceleration in the pace of change

5. Rates of Population Growth in different Eras of Human History
The ‘doubling time’ is how long it takes populations to double
What was it in the Paleolithic Era?
c. 8-9,000 years
In the Agrarian Era?
c. 1,400 years
In the last 250 years?
c. 85 years
stumpers

6. How do we Explain these Astonishing Transformations?
Begin with a clear strategy:
If we can explain population growth
Perhaps that will help us explain many other features of the ‘Modern Revolution’
Can we explain the sharp rise in population of recent centuries?

7. Population Growth Depends on Technological Innovation
Throughout history, innovations have allowed humans to extract more resources’ and feed and support more people
To explain population growth, we must explain why the rate of innovation accelerated in the last two centuries
So, why did the pace of
innovation accelerate
so sharply after c. 1750?

8. Expansion of Commerce and Capitalism?
Adam Smith argued that as markets expand, innovation increases
Most modern economists would agree with him
Karl Marx argued that …
capitalist social structures encourage innovation
while those of ‘Tributary’ societies do not
Therefore, where there existed early capitalist societies, expanding commerce would encourage innovation, as Smith had predicted!

9. Capitalist v. Tributary Societies?
In Tributary Societies:
Wealth is exacted largely through the threat of force: ‘tributes’
Power is the key to wealth, not commercial skill
In Capitalist Societies:
Wealth is extracted through commerce
Selling cheap is the key to success
To sell cheap you have to innovate
So Capitalist Societies encourage ‘cost-cutting’ innovation
Modernity must be linked to the rise of Capitalism
How can we explain the rise of Capitalism?

10. Ironically, during the pre-modern period traditional tributary empires reached their largest size

11. But the future was to belong to small independent city-states that became important centers of commerce and capitalism
In areas such as W. Africa and Europe, where there were no large, tributary empires
Small states depended largely on trade
Society as a whole became more commercialized
And early forms of capitalism thrived
Some commercial cities, such as Venice, or Genoa become surprisingly powerful
Occasionally, commercial city-states became powerful enough to challenge the great tributary empires

12. e.g. Venice, a purely commercial power, dominated much of the Mediterranean
The Doge’s palace, Venice (building started c. 1340)

13. The ‘Discovery’ of the Americas and Expansion of Exchanges Networks was the next stage
The pace of collective learning depends on the variety, size and efficiency of exchange networks
For thousands of years, the different ‘world-zones’ were separate from each other
In the 16th century, they were brought together
This created:
the largest zone of exchange that had ever existed
The most dynamic system of exchange that had ever existed
These processes gave a sharp stimulus to:
Commerce
Capitalism
collective learning

14. Columbus’ 4 voyages:

15. The first voyage around the world: Magellan’s voyage: 1519-22

16. Three main World Zones before 1500 CE
Exchanges were confined to each zone

17. Exchange networks after Columbus were global for the first time
Commerce could operate on a much larger scale

18. THIS TRANSFORMED THE POSITION OF EUROPE
- 2,000 years ago Europe was at the edge of civilization
- 1,000 years ago it was a region of new civ at the edge of Afro-Eurasian exchange networks
- After Columbus, it became the center of the largest system of exchanges that had ever existed!

19. Exchange networks before Columbus
Europe at the edge

20. Exchange networks after Columbus
Europe at the center

21. From being provincial backwaters, Europe and the Americas became the main hub of global exchanges
Suddenly,
Europe found itself at the
center of
The largest
Most dynamic
System of exchanges that had ever existed
New wealth and new information stimulated innovation as never before

22. The impact on European Thought
Educated Europeans became aware of a whole range of new cultures and ways of thought
These forced them to question former ways of thinking
And ask new questions about the world
How could knowledge be tested to prove it was true?
Were there universal principles that were true of all parts of the world?
These questions are the start of modern science

23. Modern Science: Galileo
Galileo Galilei ( ), argued that knowledge can be tested by making careful use of observation
This is one of the telescopes he used to study the solar system. Using telescopes he discovered that the moon had craters, and Jupiter had many moons

24. Science: Sir Isaac Newton
( )
Newton showed that the laws of gravity applied to the solar system as well as the earth. This meant that, in principle, the entire Universe could be understood using scientific principles discovered on earth.

25. The impact of Globalization on European Society
European states, though newer and smaller
than the great tributary empires
Became very wealthy from commerce
Because they fought continuously amongst themselves, they pioneered new military techniques based on gunpowder
They became more powerful
Commercially
Militarily

26. But by the 18th Century, how much had changed?
The world seemed on the verge of the next great ‘modern’ revolution!
A single, global, network of exchanges of wealth and information was in place.
The world was more ‘capitalistic’: Commercial expansion
had stimulated commerce and capitalism throughout the world
had made Europe particularly ‘capitalistic’ and powerful
But much remained the same:
Agrarian Civilizations and Tributary empires still dominated
Most people still lived as peasants
Rates of innovation remained low

27. Industrialization! What was Missing? By 1750 all the ingredients for
rapid innovation and deeper
globalization seemed present
Yet rates of innovation and speeds of communication remained slow by modern standards
What was needed to ‘spark’
the next revolutionary change?
What happened after 1750?
Industrialization!

28. Part B: The Industrial Revolution. An Overview
1. Statistics on production show a sharp increase from 1750 to the present
- Global industrial potential rose about 85 times between 1750 and 1980
Economic power continued to shift from the old tributary empires of Afro-Eurasia to the Atlantic world
- The old economic heartlands declined
- The Atlantic region became the most
productive region the world had ever seen

29. A shift in the Geography of Economic Power
= Hub Regions of Era of Agrarian Civilizations
= New Hub Region of Modern Era

30. 3. As the economic balance of power changed, so did the military & political balance
By 1800: States of the N. Atlantic region controlled c. 35% of the earth’s surface
By 1914: States of the N. Atlantic region controlled c. 85% of the earth’s surface
4. Within the Industrialized world, leadership shifted from ..
Britain to W. Europe and then to the USA during the 19th century

31. The Industrial Revolution Goes Global
5. The Industrial Revolution spread throughout the world during 5 waves of innovation 1. From Britain, late 18th century 2./3. To Europe and Eastern N. America, early and mid-19th century 4. To Russia, Japan, and more of N. America in late-19th century 5. To much of the rest of the world late 20th century, uniting globe into a single system

32. Britain modernized first in three interconnected revolutions:
1. Social
2. Agricultural
3. Industrial
British Industrial Revolution: Three Revolutions in One

33. Social Revolution: By 1750 British society was already capitalistic
Most ordinary people dependent on wages
Elite groups engaged in commerce
Governments supported commercial activity
PLUS …
Britain lay at the
center of the
largest, most
dynamic, system
of exchange that
had ever existed
The British Empire in 1850
: home.12move.nl/ ~sh829487/London/hop.htm

34. An Agricultural Revolution
Changes in Britain’s social structure revolutionized agriculture
Government passed laws to drive small farmers off the land and allow wealthy commercial farmers to purchase their fields
In the 18th C these commercial farmers, seeking profits, introduced innovations to make farming more efficient
By 1850, British agriculture was the most efficient the world had ever seen
An Agricultural Revolution
English agricultural heartland

35. After 1750 entrepreneurs began to invest in industry: Why?
Agricultural Revolution 
More people seeking wage work
More people needed to buy food and produce
Food was becoming cheaper
Government support
Protected markets in the colonies
Efficient banking system based on the ‘Bank of England’ (above 1890)
Geography Europe at the hub of new ideas
Results? An Ideal situation for entrepreneurs:
Labor costs falling
Demand rising
Capital cheap
New ideas abundant

36. Innovations quickly appeared in the textiles and coal industries
Fewer people making their own clothes, demand expands, entrepreneurs begin to innovate
Productivity increased with new machines
Coal:
Early steam engines were used to drain coalmines from early in the 18th century
James Watt invented a more efficient version in the 1760s that could be used as a ‘prime mover’ in other industries, such as textiles
chap4/4gin.htm

37. Factories also raised productivity
literature/images/
Early British steel factory, 19th Century
By bringing many workers together in large ‘factories’, Adam Smith argued that …
Labor Discipline could be increased
More efficient methods could be introduced
All machines could be powered by a single ‘prime mover’ (e.g. a watermill or steam engine)
This idea was further developed by Henry Ford!

38. Increasing production: 1770-1830 – Take Off!!

39. The Spread of Industrialization
PERIOD
NEW AREAS
NEW TECHS
Late 18th c.
Britain
Coal, iron, steam
2) Early 19th c.
W. Europe, East N. America
Railways, steam engines
3) Mid 19th c.
Chemicals, electricity, steel
4) Late 19th c. – 1st ½ 20th c.
Russia, Japan, more of N. America
Internal combustion engine, planes, oil

40. The 2nd Wave: Early 19th C. The Industrial Revolution
‘takes off’ in W. Europe
and Eastern N. America
Railways were a crucial ‘prime mover’
made land communication faster, and cheaper
increased demand for iron and coal
attracted huge sums of investment capital
In large countries like the US and Russia, their impact was revolutionary

41. The 3rd Wave: Mid 19th C.
Still confined mainly to W. Europe and Eastern North America
Britain challenged by Germany and USA
New Technologies:
Chemicals (particularly dyes and artificial fertilizers)
Electricity
Steel making
New approaches:
Science applied to production
Mass production using
interchangeable components (US)
Industrialization of agriculture (US)

42. The 4th Wave: Early 20th C.
Industrial Revolution spreads to Russia and Japan
New technologies include:
The Internal Combustion engine
Airplanes
New approaches include:
Large corporations combining production and marketing (like General Electric)
Mass production on assembly lines

43. 1927: 15 millionth Model T!

44. Part C: 20th and 21st Centuries The Modern Revolution Goes Global
Following WWII the world economy became a truly global entity for the first time in history
Ideas, goods, money could now be exchanged rapidly throughout the world – instant collective learning
This is the heart of the modern phenomenon of ‘globalization’
The Modern Industrial Revolution has spread across the globe, creating today’s interconnected world
And more change occurred in this one century than in all of preceding history combined!

45. After WWII - The 5th & 6th Waves of Industrialization
5th wave: mid to late 20th century
Geography: Industrialization spread quickly to E. Asia, C. and S. America, the Middle East & other areas
Characteristics: Multi-national corporations; mass consumer markets
New Technologies:
Electronics (accelerating information exchanges)
Atomic/solar/wind/hydro power
Genetic engineering
6th wave: end of 20th, early 21st centuries
Geography: Capitalism  former communist countries
Technologies: computers, genetic engineering
Characteristics: accelerating global exchanges

46. 20th C. Acceleration! Change on a New Scale
Change has been faster than ever before!
Acceleration in
Population growth
Density of settlement
Energy use
Industrial production
Travel and information exchanges
Global environmental impacts
Impacts of war

47. Population Growth In the 20th century, world populations rose from
In the 20th century, world populations rose from
C. 1.6 billion, to
C. 6 billion people
It took 200,000 years to reach 1 billion people
It took just over 100 years to add another 5 billion people!

48. Supporting more people means producing more goods
Increasing Productivity:
Modern technologies can feed, clothe and equip far more humans in a given area
This is why populations have risen so sharply!
(e.g. between 1900 and 2000 global grain production increased five fold: from 400 million tons to 2,000 million tons)

49. Global Changes in Capitalism
In less industrialized countries:
The gap between rich and poor countries widened during the 3rd and 4th waves
In the 5th and 6th waves, many ‘third world’ countries began to industrialize, and living standards in some areas began to rise
But the gap between rich and poor countries remained
In industrialized countries:
For most people, living standards declined at first
In the 20th century, they began to rise fast
Today, ordinary people in the developed countries live like aristocrats in the past
But the gap between rich and poor remains large

50. Consumer Capitalism and Ethics
From a world in which
Increasing consumption was regarded as a vice
And restraint was a virtue for most people
To a world in which
Increasing consumption is necessary for the system to keep running
And consumption is a virtue (listen to the ads)
wifor/zaeslin

51. Transformed Lifeways The changing position of women
In most agrarian societies,
women were subordinate to men in public
childbirth and rearing limited their options
In industrial societies,
women have more control over reproduction, and
more resources, so childbirth does not limit their choices to the same extent

52. Capitalism and the ‘Quality’ of Life
Is life better today? Are people happier?
Yes! Billions of people are
Healthier, more affluent and more secure than ever before
No!
Poverty: Millions still live in dire poverty
Work: Most people work harder than ever before
Stress: Psychological problems may have increased
New Dangers: The world is still threatened with obliteration through the use of nuclear weapons

53. In the 20th century, environmental change may have been the most important phenomenon of all
John McNeill [‘Something New under the Sun’, p. 4] ‘The human race, without intending anything of the sort, has undertaken a gigantic uncontrolled experiment on the earth. In time, I think, this will appear as the most important aspect of twentieth-century history, more so than World War II, the communist enterprise, the rise of mass literacy, the spread of democracy, or the growing emancipation of women.’

54. Finally, what we can we say about the future!
Okay, so today’s world began to emerge just 250 Ys ago and look where we are now! A species that can manipulate an entire biosphere
Finally, what we can
we say about the future!
What would an alien visitor make of these lights?

55. Part D: The Future Historians normally think about the past
Let’s conclude by looking at the future
We can do nothing about the past
But we can do something about the future!
So, though it’s not easy, we have to think hard about the future

56. What we do today will affect the future
Decisions taken today
about economic growth,
the environment,
about war and peace
Will affect how our children
and grandchildren live
So we have to try to think seriously about the consequences of what we do today
If we see dangerous trends, we need to change them. If we see hopeful trends, we need to encourage them

57. Four Dangerous Trends Population Growth
Increasing Consumption of Resources
Pollution and Global Warming
Inequality and Conflict
media
sunsite.berkeley.edu

58. Estimate in 85 ys
time

59. Will we be able to feed 10 billion people?
Food production has kept up with rising populations so far
But
There is hardly any free land to cultivate
Fisheries are reaching their limits
Fertilizers are becoming less effective
Irrigation is becoming harder as water supplies are over-used

60. Dangerous Trend 2: Increasing Consumption
Consumption will increase in today’s developing world and developed countries
If the entire population of the world begins to consume resources like residents of our region do today …
The world will have to produce 5-10 times as much as today
And will produce much more pollution!
crops.html

61. Dangerous Trend 3: Damaging the Environment that Sustains Us
Extinctions:
Rates of extinction are faster than ever before in human history and accelerating
Military technology:
Nuclear weapons have the ability to
Destroy much of the world
Release toxic gases and radiation which would damage large areas of the world

62. Climate Change: Most dangerous trend of all!
3. The Atmosphere:
The atmosphere controls the temperature at the surface of the earth
Without an atmosphere, earth would be icy cold
Exact mix of gases determines the temperature
Some gases trap the sun’s warmth, e.g. Carbon Dioxide
So temperature at surface depends on the amount of these ‘greenhouse’ gases in the atmosphere

63. Carbon Dioxide and Global Warming
Getting the Balance right:
Burning fossil fuels pumps carbon dioxide into the atmosphere
Trees and oceans take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere
Upsetting the Balance:
Currently we pump out carbon dioxide faster than trees and seas can soak it up
And we are reducing the number of trees
Result?
Amounts of carbon dioxide increase
Global Warming

64. The impact of global warming
We know some of the likely effects:
Sea levels will rise, flooding
low lying lands, which will
become uninhabitable
Weather patterns will become
more erratic
But some of the changes we
cannot predict, and they
could occur very fast:
Eg, Atlantic Gulf Stream could
switch paths, leaving E. Coast of
US and much of Europe in a new
Ice Age (Day After Tomorrow)

65. Florida Today
Florida in your kids’ lifetime?

66. Will the Great Lakes exist 100 years from now??
Lakes were
here!
Will the Great Lakes exist 100 years from now??

67. Dangerous Trend 4: Inequality and Conflict
Environmental problems will strike hardest at poorer countries, through:
shortages of food, water or oil
global warming
This may trigger more conflict between rich and poor countries
Small military groups can now acquire powerful weapons
Terrorism will seem like the only strategy available to the poorest regions
Its consequences may be devastating
The Stinger shoulder-fired missile can be fired from the shoulder.
It can bring destroy both military and civilian aircraft

68. Some Hopeful Trends
The first hopeful sign is that ….. we know what needs to be done!
Population growth must slow
Consumption of resources must slow
Production of waste products and greenhouse gases must be reduced
Inequalities between rich and poor
must be diminished
Societies must co-operate to
solve problems that affect the
entire world

69. Changing Attitudes to the Environment
50 years ago, environmental issues were not taken seriously
Today, there is much more consciousness of their importance
Most governments take them seriously
We can now see the dangers coming

70. Can Capitalism and Sustainable Development Co-exist?
Capitalism is the most powerful force shaping economic development today
Capitalists seek profit!
Will ‘sustainable development’ automatically undermine profits? Not necessarily, if
Demand for sustainable technologies increases rapidly enough to generate large profits
Consumption in poorer countries rises rapidly enough to fuel (sustainable) growth

71. But … is the political will there for change?
Governments can affect the pace of change
By taxing unsustainable technologies (in return for
reducing income taxes)
By subsidizing sustainable technologies
Globally, 3% of taxes worldwide are now governed by ecological considerations
What sort of cars would you buy if governments began to tax gas heavily (like Europe, Australia etc)?
But do democratic governments (particularly in the US) have the will to take hard decisions?

72. In the distant future humans will migrate beyond the Earth
Humans once migrated from Africa all around the earth
Humans will eventually
migrate beyond
the earth
To colonize the Moon
and Mars and exploit
the mineral resources of
asteroids
And live in artificial
space colonies

73. Living in artificial planets?
This design of this space colony turns slowly so each of its three ‘continents’ gets its share of day and night

74. A Tipairua of Tahiti by Herb Kawainui Kane
Beyond the Solar System: Will stellar migrations echo the epic Polynesian migrations?
Travel beyond our solar system will require entirely new technologies
But eventually, we may migrate to nearby star systems, echoing the achievements of the great Polynesian navigators
A Tipairua of Tahiti by Herb Kawainui Kane

75. Stellar Migrations and the Human Species
If humans travel beyond our solar system, they will become separated from each other
Once again, human history will take place in many different ‘worlds’
As human populations become isolated, our species will slowly split into different species, like our hominine ancestors

76. The Remote Future Millions and billions of years into the future
On very large scales, prediction becomes easier because
astronomical changes are simpler than social changes
We have a pretty good idea of the future of the earth
and of the Universe

77. Plate Tectonics: The Geography of the Earth will Continue to Change
In 200 million years,
the Pacific will have shrunk,
Papua New Guinea will be off the coast of Alaska,
… and Australia and Antarctica will be next door neighbors for any surviving Californians!

78. The Future of the Earth In 3-4 billion years
The Sun will run out of hydrogen and become unstable
It will heat up and swell into a ‘red giant’
The Earth will be ‘sterilized’ of life and the seas will boil away
Eventually, the earth will be inside the Sun
The Sun will expand and contract several times, obliterating the Earth
The Future
of the Earth

79. The Future of Our Galaxy? The Milky Way …..
At about the time our Sun dies
our galaxy will collide with its neighbor, the Andromeda galaxy

80. Colliding Galaxies: from Hubble Space Telescope 1997

81. The Future of the Universe
The future of the Universe depends on a simple relationship between
The Mass and Gravity of the entire Universe
(i.e. how much stuff there is)
The speed of expansion of the Universe
(i.e. is it expanding enough to escape the pull of its own gravity?)
Will the Universe achieve ‘escape velocity’?
The Future of the Universe

82. An Open Universe and a Slow Death
In the late 1990s, it was found that …
the rate of expansion is increasing
This means the Universe will achieve ‘escape velocity’, and keep expanding for ever
In an endlessly expanding Universe …
The second law of thermodynamics means that less and less energy will be available to make complex things like us
Expansion means that objects will be further and further apart

83. The Future of the Universe?
Billions and billions of years in the future …
All stars will die
The Universe will be full of cold, dead objects
Much of it will slowly turn into iron
Eventually, Black holes will gobble up the remaining matter
Then Black holes will evaporate
Then …Zilch!
Artist’s conception of a Black Hole gobbling up stars, time and space

84. Humans and the Universe?
So, what is our role in all this?
At first sight, we are tiny and short-lived
We are utterly insignificant!
But, perhaps there is another answer
Human society is the most complicated thing we are aware of in the Universe!
And we have no evidence that creatures capable of collective learning live anywhere else in our galaxy

85. Humans at the Center of Modern Cosmology?
Can we even say that:
Humans are perhaps the most complex phenomenon created by our Universe?
In its youth (the first few billion years)
When it had enough energy to create complex things

86. Our place in the universe?
So the history of our species and each of us is very important in the modern creation story; but it is up to us to determine the future! We
Matter!

87. At the end of a world history course you should all have a sense of …
What it means to be human
An understanding of history through a ‘view from the moon’
And how we can transform our world in the present and the future
Ultimately this is why …