1. Wheat Scenario : Global & India
Khalid Khan
ITC Limited – Agri Business Division

2. World Wheat – 2017/18
World wheat production up ~ 11% since with a CAGR of 1%
World Wheat consumption up ~ 15% since with a CAGR of 1.5%
Ending stocks as on are expected at 268 million MT; 12% up over last year
Highest increase in Demand: Asia
IGC came out with global production of 742 million MT, a fall of 15 million MT year on year
Source: FAO

3. Market Scan – World Wheat
+15%
-36%
+1%
-1%
-15%
-24%
*All figures in million MT
*Prices CIF Tuticorin
Australia, Canada & USA has seen decline in Production
Russia is up by 15% balancing the decline
Black Sea prices stable - July to Dec’17
Spread between APW and Ukrainian wheat widened significantly

4. India Wheat Scenario – 2017/18
Marketable surplus (65%)
64 MMT
Remaining 34 MMT retained by farmers for self-consumption and seed purpose
Production 98 MMT
Govt. 31 MMT
Opening: 8 MMT
PDS
25.2 MMT
OMSS
0.4 MMT
Unorganized
18 MMT
Organised
15 MMT
Bulk processors
11 MMT (Maida)
Brand owners
4 MMT (Atta)
Carry forward 13.1 MMT

5. Uttar Pradesh Punjab INDIA : WHEAT 2018/19 Haryana TOP 5 PRODUCERS
Madhya Pradesh
Rajasthan
TOP 5 PRODUCERS
Govt purchase price would be 1,735 rupees ($27.10) per 100 kg compared with 1,625 rupees a year ago
State-set prices to build stocks to run a mammoth food welfare programme which covers about 75 percent of its 1.3 billion people – Food Subsidy for FY 2018/19 raised to Rs 1.69 Lakh Crs. (21% up from last year)
Favorable condition during February’18 to decide the final production numbers (estimated at 93 million MT)

6. Wheat Crop Outlook – 2018/19
Crop Year 2017
State
State wise
Target
Crop Year 2018
% Inc / - Dec
in Production
vs. LY
Area
Production
(Lakh Hec)
(Lakh MT)
64.22
179.39
Madhya Pradesh
49.06
53.16
148.50
-17%
30.68
89.98
Rajasthan
32.00
30.00
88.00
-2%
100.52
300.58
Uttar Pradesh
99.15
98.13
293.43
9.96
27.43
Gujarat
12.50
10.56
29.08 6%
35.00
164.41
Punjab
34.90 0%
25.38
115.24
Haryana
25.23
25.26
114.70
22.95
50.85
Bihar
23.25
22.87
50.67
10.52
16.72
Maharashtra
10.70
8.96
14.24
-15%
3.39
9.30
West Bengal
1.54
1.16
3.18
-66%
1.74
1.60
Chhattisgarh
1.97
1.65
1.51
-6%
3.59
7.04
H.P.
3.60
7.06
2.31
4.73
J&K
2.45
2.44
5.00
2.08
4.29
Jharkhand
2.41
2.21
4.55
1.57
1.68
Karnataka
2.16
1.89
2.02
20%
8.77
Uttarakhand
3.58
8.74
0.33
1.02
Others
0.60
0.25
0.78
-24%
317.82
983.02
Total
305.10
300.72
935.88
-5%
Sowing Completed – 5% Sowing down, 301 Lakh Hec. against 318 Lakh Hec. of LY
Considering yield ~ LY, the Production is expected to be million MT (Govt. estimates: ~100 million MT)

7. Government Wheat Stock – Comparison
All figures in Lakh MT
Stocks as on 1st Jan'17
State
Stocks as on 1st Jan'18
% Inc./Dec
2.57
Bihar
3.19
24%
1.72
Delhi
1.95
13%
4.46
Gujarat
2.79
-37%
24.39
Haryana
41.47
70%
19.80
Madhya Pradesh
41.95
112%
33.43
Punjab
52.81
58%
14.77
Rajasthan
12.81
-13%
15.67
Uttar Pradesh
16.90 8%
5.11
West Bengal
6.54
28%
0.14
Assam
0.11
-21%
15.40
Others
15.10
-2%
137.47
Total
195.62
42%
Government Opening Stock as on 1st April 2018 estimated at 13.1 million MT Vs 8 million MT as on 1st April 2017

8. WHEAT IMPORTS 10% Import duty To be reviewed 20%
Imported Wheat made the Indian Wheat Price inflation under control
FCI off-take through OMSS* did not pick up
April – Oct. ’17
To be reviewed
February ’18
1.5 million MT wheat imports till date from Ukraine & Australia
Govt. may further increase duty to 40% post Wheat procurement, to off-load excess stocks through OMSS
20%
November ’17
To boost domestic sowing
Prices did not pick up due to huge stocking by Millers
*OMSS – Open Market Sale Scheme

9. Thank You