1. Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater including Natural Hazards Anticipating research needs in the light of river basin management developments
Philippe QUEVAUVILLER
European Commission
DG Research
Directorate I ‘Environment’

2. Contents Climate change realities
CC Adaptation policies in the light of the WFD/GWD: highlighting the need for scientific bases
Scientific challenges
FP7 Environment programme
Example of RTD project of relevance to (ground)water policy
Need for strengthening the science-policy interfacing mechanism: CIS-SPI initiative
What’s next? Further networking

3. Why bothering thinking about climate change?
Uncertainties increase when aspects other than temperature increase are modelled, for example rainfall as shown in the above. Shows winter (left) and summer (right) rainfall at the end of the century relative to the start, and also gives an indication of the level of agreement or disagreement between different models. (In general at the global scale, since the overall circulation patterns are not expected to change, wet areas (e.g. ITCZ/equatorial) will get wetter and dry areas (e.g. tropics) will get drier – although there are many complexities (e.g. how El Nino/La Nina change, what happens to storm tracks across UK).
Note here that it is important for us to understand the range of results from different GCMs in order to take a risk based approach to adaptation. UKCIP08 will do this – suggest adding some outputs from UKCIP08 at this point once released in November
IPCC
Ar4

4. Regional rainfall projections
ANN
DJF
JJA
Changes in precipitation by the 2080s (top) and the number of models (out of 21) that project wetter conditions (lower panel). Source: IPCC AR4 (2007)

5. Global Drivers of Change: interactions
Climate
rainfall
Land cover
GHGs
Water
Resources
food
fuel
GHGs
Population,
Increasing
consumption
From Richard Harding, Centre of Ecology & Hydrology (WATCH)

6. But: there is considerable uncertainty
We know there will be changes in rainfall regimes
(it is arguable there already have) but the detail is unclear
There is good agreement that:
Globally rainfall will increase
Nearly everywhere temperatures will increase
Extremes will increase
Generally dry areas get drier and wet wetter
Sea level will rise
There is not good agreement:
Rainfall trends in many regions of the world
The magnitude of the changes are uncertain
Different hydrological models give different responses to rainfall drivers

7. Climate change impacts on water
Source: EEA

8. + WFD Parent legislation RBMP – 2009/2015 Adopted on 20.12.2000
(e.g. Flood Directive)
Anticipating – Feeding
with research outputs
linked to well defined
Poliy milestones
River basin districts
Delineation water bodies
2005
Analysis of pressures
and impacts
2005
Classification of bodies ‘at risk’
Design of monitoring
Programmes
2006
Account of classification:
Surveillance monitoring
Operational monitoring
(+ investigative monitoring)
6 years cycle / Review
RBMP – 2009/2015
GOOD STATUS
OBJECTIVE
Programmes of
Measures
2012

9. Will we be able to evaluate CC impacts on groundwater and how?
River Basin Management D R
societal system P S S S S I
CC impacts likely to occur at various levels of DPSIR

10. Climate change in the context of RBMP
River basin management plans should enable to tackle the climate change issues:
Clear objectives
Cyclical (with possibility for technical reviews)
Management of pressures, including climate-related ones
Development of partnership/networking
Links with flood risks and land use planning
Integration of cost figures through economic analysis
Integration of climate change into RBM means:
Adapting monitoring programmes
Reviewing pressures and impacts analyses
Design tailor-made programmes of measures

11. Some principles tackled at policy level
Anticipating changes to water bodies (both qualitatively and quantitatively) and how this affects WFD objectives
Understanding the extent and causes of variability and changes (e.g. regarding reference conditions)
Assessing direct and indirect influences on pressures due to climate change
Identifying and closely monitoring climate change “hot spots”
Favouring options that are robust to the uncertainty in climate projections
Testing for compatibility of actions with wider adaptation and mitigation objectives
Integrating cross-sectoral delivery of adaptation measures
Demonstrating integrated adaptation through representative case studies

12. EU Adaptation Framework
The EU Adaptation Framework building on the Green Paper will:
Strengthen the Knowledge/Evidence Base: recognition that sound scientific results are paramount
Mainstream climate Adaptation into key policy areas, improving reporting mechanisms which are presently fragmented
Advance work internationally on Adaptation
Work in Partnership

13. INITIATIVES LINKED TO ADAPTATION
EU + EXTERNAL
WATER- EU

14. EU white paper on adaptation
The proposed EU framework adopts a phased approach: Phase 1 ( ) to prepare an EU comprehensive adaptation strategy to be implemented in 2012 (Phase 2).
Phase 1 will focus on four pillars of action: 1) building a solid knowledge base, 2) integrating adaptation into key policy areas; 3) employing a combination of policy instruments (market-based instruments, guidelines, public-private partnerships…) and 4) strengthening international co-operation on adaptation.

15. Scientific Challenges I
Climate change and water results
Science
River Basin Management Plans
Information
Knowledge
Modelling
Uncertainty
Impacts and vulnerability
Different types of integration
Spatial & waterbodies
Impacts (hydrology, temperature)
Sectors (e.g. hydropower, reservoirs)
Source: EEA

16. Scientific challenges II
Adaptation to climate change or
Take climate change impact into account in measures
Water resource management
Flood risk management
Drought management plans
Water quality management/ pollution control
Climate checking of PoMs (Program of Measures)
Impacts and vulnerability
Source: EEA

17. Tackling scientific challenges through FP7
FP 7 has been organised in Specific Programmes. They constitute the five major building blocks of FP7:
Cooperation
Ideas
People
Capacities
Nuclear Research
The core of FP7, representing 2/3 of the overall budget, is the Cooperation programme. It fosters collaborative research across Europe and other partner countries through projects by transnational consortia of industry and academia. Research will be carried out in ten key thematic areas, including Environment (including climate change)

18. Some figures
Total FP7 budget: bn € (current prices)
Total budget for Environment Theme 1.89 bn €
Indicative breakdown:
Slight increase of budget in 2008, 2009 compared to 2007
Sharp increase only from 2011
In 2013 expenditure 60% higher than in 2006
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
225
224
229
233
246
281
318
356

19. Environment (including Climate Change)
Main drivers:
International commitments, protocols, initiatives concluded by the EU and its Member States
Existing and emerging EU environmental legislation and policies
Implementation of the 6th Environmental Action programme, associated thematic strategies and the action plans
Climate and environmental change, their consequences and the link to energy

20. Environment (including Climate Change)
Activities and sub-activities
Climate change, pollution and risks
Pressures on environment and climate
Environment and health
Natural hazards
Sustainable Management of Resources
Conservation and sustainable management of natural and man-made resources and biodiversity
Management of marine environments

21. Environment (including Climate Change)
Activities and sub-activities
Environmental Technologies
Environmental technologies for observation, simulation, prevention, mitigation, adaptation, remediation and restoration of the natural and man-made environment
Protection, conservation and enhancement of cultural heritage including human habitat
Technology assessment, verification and testing
Earth observation and assessment tools for sustainable development
Earth and ocean observation systems and monitoring methods for the environment and sustainable development
Forecasting methods and assessment tools for sustainable development, taking into account differing scales of observation

22. The WATCH Integrated Project
Example
The WATCH Integrated Project
Analyse and describe the current global water cycle
Evaluate how the global water cycle and its extremes respond to future drivers of global change
Evaluate feedbacks in the coupled system as they affect the global water cycle
Evaluate the uncertainties in the predictions
Develop a modelling and data framework to assess the future vulnerability of water as a resource

23. Coupling Climate and Hydrological models
WATCH products:
Global hydrological products (50km)
Regional products (12km)
Modelling and Downscaling tools
Scale
Model biases
Missing processes (biology, human intervention ...)

24. Downscaling – linking global models to catchments
Upper Guadiana Basin
GCM’s
Cell Size:
50*50 km2
RCM’s
10*10 km2
Hydrogeo. Model
2.5*2.5 km2
dynamic
statistical
Downscaling – linking global models to catchments
Global
Test basins
Regions: Europe,
India, W Africa

25. Environment (including Climate Change) Other examples
Flood risk assessment, prevention, preparedness
Large scale project: FLOODsite
Research on Flash Floods (FLASH, IMPRINTS)
Research on Urban Floods (Int. cooperation dimension)
Understanding climate change impacts
Research on CC impacts on water quality and quantity in vulnerable mountain environments (ACQWA)
Assessment of CC impacts in the Mediterranean, including on water resources (CIRCE)
+ Assessment or research needs and policy options in the area of drought (XEROCHORE)

26. Need to establish links with ‘science-users’
POLICY
DEVELOPMENT
DESIGN OF
POLICY
RESEARCH,
SCIENTIFIC PROGRESS,
POLICY INTEGRATION
POLICY
IMPLEMENTATION
POLICY
REVIEW

27. Communication involves two way exchanges of research information
who - is your audience or the users of the information?
what - do they need to know?
how - is it best presented?
when - do they need the information?
Courtesy of Peter Allen-Williams (IWRM.Net) & Bob Harris

28. Research results Four stages to implementation
Communication
Dissemination
Implementation
Uptake
EC FP7 PROJECTS
International / National / Regional Policy and Research
Research
Courtesy of Peter Allen-Williams (IWRM.Net) & Bob Harris

29. One route to find user’s ears: WFD Common Implementation Strategy
Strategic Steering Group “WFD and Hydromorphology”
Chair: DE, UK and Commission
Water Directors
Steering of implementation process
Chair: Presidency, Co-chair: Commission
Stakeholder Forum “Water Scarcity and Droughts”
Chair: Commission
Co- Chair: FR/ES/IT
Strategic Steering Group “WFD and Agriculture”
Chair: FR, UK and Commission
Strategic Co-ordination Group
Co-ordination of work programme
Chair: Commission
Art. 21 Committee
Drafting Group
“Objectives/Exemptions/Economics”
Chair: Commission and DK
Strategic Steering Group “CC Adaptation & WFD”
Chair: DE, UK, FR and Commission
Working Group A
“Ecological Status”
Chair: JRC, DE and UK
Working Group D
“Reporting”
Chair: Commission, EEA and FR
"GIS” Expert Network
Working Group F
“Floods”
Chair: Commission
Working Group C
“Groundwater”
Chair: Commission and AT
“Chemical Monitoring”
Working Group E
“Priority Substances”
Chair: Commission
“Chemical Monitoring”
Stakeholders, NGO’s, Researchers, Experts, etc.

30. A developed RTD-web platform: Links to WISE
Information Users
Research
Information
Policy
Effectiveness
Public/
Stake- holders
Member States
EEA
International
Conventions
WISE
COM
SoE
Trends An.
Data treatment
/ aggregation
Compliance
checking
Purposes for reporting
Member States
Data
Drivers for data collection

31. Interfacing webportal
Research & ICT technology
CatchMod projects
Data & knowledge
WISE-RTD:
Science-policy
Interfacing webportal
tools
pilots
OFFERS
PRB's
WFD Guidances
Experiences
Documents
DEMANDS
WFD implementation
Water managers

32. Ideally INTERFACE R&D, tools Research recommendations
When needed (short to long-term)
Scientific
knowledge
INTERFACE
Transfer & dissem.
“usability”
Data infrastructure
“memory”
POLICY-MAKERS
Member States
Commission
Demonstration, practical works
Interactive interface

33. Cross-cutting activities
CIS-SPI initiative (1)
Cross-cutting activities
Ensure efficient transfer of scientific knowledge to policy advisors, regulators and managers
Compile feedback from users and future research needs
Thematic activities
Specific themes to be selected with the aim to:
provide a state of the art of existing knowledge
identify related knowledge gaps and research needs and ensure inclusion in research agendas
ensure diffusion/relay to relevant users at the appropriate level(s)

34. Specific themes to be considered:
CIS-SPI initiative (2)
Thematic activities
Identify further research needs linked to key policy milestones
Provide state-of-the-art of existing knowledge of potential interest to policy implementers and stakeholders
Specific themes to be considered:
Ecological status, including hydromorphology
Priority substances
Floods
Groundwater
Water and agriculture
Water and climate change
Socio-economics
Water and renewable energy policies
Water and biodiversity
Water and the marine environment

35. Links with other activities
WISE-RTD
Web portal
PRB INBO, etc…
Identify WFD relevant projects and products of research
Support demonstration projects
Science-Policy Interface
Transfer technical solutions/best practices
National and EU R&D agendas
Support an evidence-based policy
IWRM-Net, WSSTP…
WSSTP, PRBs…
CIS working groups

36. Conclusions - Seen from a different angle:
RTD
WISE
IDENTIFICATION
OF RESEARCH NEEDS
DEVELOPMENT
DATA ACCESS
FP7
(EU scale)
ERA-NET
(National)
Data from projects
CIS-SPI
Expert Group
WISE-
RTD
Results (info / data)
directly usable/
transferable?
YES NO
INFORMATION
EXCHANGES
INFORMATION
ACCESS
Demonstration (e.g. PRBs, LIFE)
Capacity-building (e.g. INTERREG)
Networking (e.g. COST)
TRAINING
Education,
Training
OPERATIONAL SCIENCE-POLICY INTERFACE IN SUPPORT OF INTEGRATED RIVER BASIN
MANAGEMENT

37. What’s next?
Developing integrated approaches to tackle pressures on groundwater and design appropriate measures, including climate change impacts, will require a strong scientific knowledge base. A lot of uncertainties remain!
An operational science-policy interfacing is essential to ensure proper synergies and take-up of scientific results by “users”. Strengthened networking is a key aspect and WG C is at the heart of it as regards groundwater management.
Specific research needs have to be identified in relation to climate change impacts (and related extreme events) on groundwater (complementing and following-up ‘GENESIS’)