1. Geography Lesson 2: Birth and Death Rates

2. about natural population changes and how to calculate them
Learning Intentions
We are learning…
about natural population changes and how to calculate them
about the factors that affect natural population levels
how natural population changes vary in less economically developed countries (LEDCs) and more economically developed countries (MEDCs)
AfL
Share these AfL learning intentions with pupils in your introduction to the lesson.
Share and negotiate success criteria with pupils.
Examples of success criteria
Pupils will be able to:
calculate examples of natural population changes;
explain the effect of birth and death rates on world population; and
investigate how the natural population change of LEDCs and MEDCs differ.

3. Change in world population
Visit this population website to observe how world population is changing in real time:
Worldometers: Current World Population
This website shows births, deaths and total world population today, changing in real time.
Ask pupils to note the total world population before closing the site. They will check the figure again at the end of the lesson.

4. Birth and death rates
Birth rate measures the number of people being born.
Birth rate = number of people born per 1000 of the population.
(Births per 1000)
Death rate measures the number of people dying.
Death rate = number of people dying per 1000 of the population. (Deaths per 1000)
Ask pupils to consider why the population of the world might be increasing.
Discuss how the world population is increasing because more people are being born than are dying.

5. Change in population For the world population:
if birth rate > death rate, population will increase
if death rate > birth rate, population will decrease
AfL
This part of the lesson uses the following strategies:
effective questioning; and
scaffolding reflection by asking for feedback from pupils.
Check that pupils are familiar with < and > signs and the terms increase and decrease.
Ask them to consider the question on the slide.

6. Natural population rate
The natural population rate ignores any migration of people. It is always written as a percentage.
AfL
This part of the lesson uses the following strategies:
scaffolding reflection by asking for feedback from pupils.
Check that pupils are familiar with the term migration.
Discuss what effects immigration and emigration might have on population.

7. Natural population change: Part 1
Look at this natural population change example for the UK in 2012.
Birth rate = 12.3 births per 1000
Death rate = 8.9 deaths per 1000
Rate of natural population change = 12.3 – 8.9 = 3.4
However, this figure is per 1000 of the population. We want it to be a percentage.
AfL
This part of the lesson uses the following strategies:
effective questioning; and
scaffolding reflection by asking for feedback from pupils.
Check that pupils understand the term natural population change.
Discuss with pupils how to change a rate which is per 1000 into a percentage.
Give them a hint, with a reminder that percentage means out of 100.
Ask pupils if they are expecting a bigger or smaller answer and then whether they need to divide or multiply by 10. Then ask pupils to perform the calculation to find the percentage for the example on screen.

8. Natural population change: Part 2
This is a positive number, which means there is a natural population increase.
AfL
This part of the lesson uses the following strategies:
effective questioning; and
scaffolding reflection by asking for feedback from pupils.
Show pupils the model answer to calculate the percentage from the example on the previous screen. Give them each a printed copy of Resource 2a: How to Calculate Natural Population Change, which shows the full worked example.
Ask them what a negative rate of population change might mean.
(Make sure they understand that a negative example means the birth rate is lower than the death rate, so when they subtract birth rate from death rate and divide by ten to calculate the percentage, they will get a negative number).

9. Population – natural change
Write down the names of two MEDCs and two LEDCs. Record the birth rates for those countries for 2012.
Record the death rates for the same countries for 2012.
Use the link below and scroll through the countries.
Calculate the natural population change for each country.
AfL
This part of the lesson uses the following strategies:
effective questioning; and
scaffolding reflection
by asking for feedback from pupils; and
by encouraging peer and self-assessment.
Review the terms MEDC and LEDC and discuss examples of each.
Ask pupils to choose the names of two MEDCs and two LEDCs for this activity.
If pupils are using tablets, ask them to visit the links above and follow the instructions on the slide to record birth and death rates for their chosen countries and calculate the natural population change for each chosen country. Some pupils may ask why the data is for 2012 and not more recent. This is a good opportunity to discuss how data like this is collected and processed.
If pupils do not have tablets or internet access is a problem, distribute copies of Resource 2b which shows birth and death rates for all countries in a table (results in this resource, please note, show statistics from the year 2013). Ask them to find the birth rates and death rates for their chosen countries in this printed table, and calculate the natural population change for each.
Encourage pupils to use different countries from the pupils around them so that you can draw a more robust conclusion using information from the whole class.
For those struggling to get started, remind them to use the worked example for the UK (in Resource 2a) as a guide.
UN Data: Crude death rate (per 1000 population)

10. World population
Revisit this population website and calculate how many more people are in the world since you last visited the website.
Worldometers: Current World Population
AfL
This part of the lesson uses the following strategies:
effective questioning; and
scaffolding reflection
by asking for feedback from pupils; and
by encouraging peer and self-assessment.
Ask pupils to note the total world population again and calculate how many more people are in the world since they checked the website the last time.