1. Prof. Em. Nuclear Civil Engineering
Sustainable Electricity Supply in the World by 2050 for Economic Growth and Automotive Fuel
Paul Kruger
Prof. Em. Nuclear Civil Engineering
Stanford University
FIEM

2. Outline Introduction Appropriate Technology
Electricity Demand for Hydrogen Fuel
Electricity Demand for an Electric Vehicle Fleet
Energy Resources for a Sustainable Electricity Supply
Conclusions

3. World Energy Consumption per Capita
Energy Population Intensity
Year (EJ) (billion) (GJ/cap)
Increase x x x

4. World Electricity Intensity 1980 – 2005 – 2030

5. World Electric Energy Intensity 1980 - 2030
Electricity
Generation Population Intensity
Year (PWh) (Billion) (MWh/cap)
Ratio X X X

6. Start of Official Environmental Awareness in the U.S.A.
NEPA,1969, First Law of the New Decade, Signed into law 1 January 1970
as recognition of a National Policy
for the Environment
Considers such Broad Problems as
Population Growth
Resource Exploitation
Appropriate Technology

7. Specific Energy of Major Fuels

8. Appropriate Technology as f(Specific Energy)
For Large Numbers of Distributed
Small-Scale Applications:
(e.g., Energy for Individual Buildings)
→ Low-Specific Energy Resources
For Small Numbers of Central
Large-Scale Applications:
(e.g., Energy for Metropolitan Cities)
→ High-Specific Energy Resources

9. Electricity for a HFCV Fleet ?
New and Future Demands for Electricity:
• Information technology (the Internet)
• Mobile cell phones (and apps)
• Home management systems
• Homeland security
• Electric vehicle fleet
• Hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle fleet

10. Electricity and Hydrogen Fuel Demand Model, World Input Parameters 2008
Parameter Initial Value Units
Population Billion
Vehicle fleet Million
Travel distance TVKT
Fuel economy var km/gal
Electricity demand TkWh

11. World Vehicle Fleet 2010 – 2050

12. Ford Motor Co. Production 1903-1923

13. World HFuel Requirement

14. World Electricity Demand

15. Electricity for an Electric Vehicle Fleet
Electric vehicles as a transitional or permanent replacement of fossil fuels for automotive vehicles?
Appropriate Technology for Electric Vehicle and/or Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Vehicle Fleets?
Issues for Non-Cost Consideration:
Lag time for production to meaningful fleets
Maximum storage of motive “fuel”
Maximum driving range; Minimum mass
Fuel-cycle environmental impacts

16. Electricity Demand for BEV Recharging 2010 - 2050
Parameter Initial Value Units
Initial No. vehicles 10,000
Mean annual GrRate %/a
Daily vehicle travel mi/day
Annual days of travel days/yr
Charge depletion rate 0.25→ kWh/mi
Recharge efficiency kWh/kWh

17. Electricity Consumption by Local Travel w/ Hydrogen and Electric Fuel Vehicles

18. Comparison of Electricity Consumption between BEV Fleet and HFCV Fleet
Fleet EFleet HFleet Ratio
Year (106) (TWh) (TWh) (HFlt/EFlt)

19. Sustainability of Electricity Supply for a Growing Population ?
The Increase in electric energy demand can be forecast by estimating the Integral of the Business-as-Usual growth in demand for Current and New Technologies and
the Decrease in demand by estimating the Integral of Technical and Regulated Conservation.
∆ED = ∫(B.a.U.)0 egt dt – ∫(Cons)0 ect dt

20. Distribution of Major Energy Resources
Forecast Forecast Fossil On-Line
DOE Model Renew Fuels Nuclear
Year (PWh) (PWh) (PWh) (PWh) (PWh)
magr
n/a X Y

21. Resources for a World Electricity Supply of 36 PWh/a by 2050
Electricity Supply No. Units
Resource (PWh) (%) Needed
Solar conversion 25
Residential PV million
Structural PV million
Thermal farms ,000
Wind turbines ,000
Nuclear reactors ,800
(Fossil fuel energy = 18 PWh x (X/50%)

22. World Nuclear Electricity

23. Nuclear Production of Hydrogen
Nuclear electricity for reforming of natural gas
Off-Peak utilization of electricity for
electrolysis of heated cooling water
High-Temperature electrolysis of
steam
Thermochemical dissociation of water

24. Conclusions
Under B.a.U. (or smaller) growth rate, world electricity demand will grow from
20 to ~ 36 Trillion kWh/a by 2050.
(2) The lag time to replace fossil fuels with significant amounts of alternative energy resources will be ~ 15 to 25 years.
(3) Renewable energy is best suited for large numbers of small-scale distributed installations; Nuclear energy is best suited for smaller numbers of large-scale centralized installations.