1. R/Evolution of SmartDrivingCars in the US Where did we come from;
Where are we?
Where are we going? by
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor, ORFE
(Operations Research & Financial Engineering) Director, CARTS
(Consortium for Automated Road Transportation Safety)
Faculty Chair, PAVE
(Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering)
Princeton University
Presented at
2018 World Transport Convention
June 19, 2018
Beijing, China

2. Have You Noticed??? Google/Waymo’s Buying Spreeby
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor, ORFE
(Operations Research & Financial Engineering) Director, CARTS
(Consortium for Automated Road Transportation Safety)
Faculty Chair, PAVE
(Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering)
Princeton University
Presented at
ITS America 2018
June 5, 2018
Detroit, MI

3. Dynamics of Google/Waymo’s Deployment of Driverless
Year
10K
100K 1K 1M
10M
100 10 1
Cars “Purchased”
In 2009 Google/ Waymo went to the local Lexus Dealership and “purchase” about 2 Priuses
2009

4. Dynamics of Google/Waymo’s Deployment of Driverless
Year
10K
100K 1K 1M
10M
100 10 1
Cars “Purchased”
In 2012 Google/ Waymo went back to the local Lexus Dealership and “purchase” about 20 Lexus
2009
2012

5. Dynamics of Google/Waymo’s Deployment of Driverless
Year
10K
100K 1K 1M
10M
100 10 1
Cars “Purchased”
In about Google/Waymo built about 200 “Fireflies”
2009
2012
2014-5

6. Dynamics of Google/Waymo’s Deployment of Driverless
Year
10K
100K 1K 1M
10M
Cars “Purchased”
Late in 2016, Google/Waymo bought about 2,000 Fiat-Chrysler Pacificas
2009
2012
2015
2017

7. Dynamics of Google/Waymo’s Deployment of Driverless
Year
10K
100K 1K 1M
10M
100 10 1
Cars “Purchased”
Early this year They ordered 2,000 Jaguar I-PACE electric cars
2009
2012
2015
2017
2018.2

8. Dynamics of Google/Waymo’s Deployment of Driverless
Year
10K
100K 1K 1M
10M
100 10 1
> 10X
every 2 years
(Waymo’s Kornhauser Law)
Cars “Purchased”
A few weeks ago They ordered 60,000 more Fiat-Chrysler Pacificas. This curve is starting to look like a “hockey stick”! But it is a semi-log plot which means that the growth is greater than “exponential”. In the “Moore’s Law” context of continued rapid growth, I’ve suggested Waymo’s “Kornhauser Law”: Waymo’s Purchase of Driverless Cars grows by 10 times every two (2) years. That implies that in “2020” they’ll order 200,000 driverless cars and in 2022 they’ll order 2 million and by 2025 they’ll order enough to serve essentially every person Trip in the US during a typical day (about 20 Million autonomousTaxis would readily serve the about 1Billion vehicular personTrips that take place on a typical day. To do that well, the service must serve many personTrips on a shared ride basis and must complement existing high quality urban public transit and intercity rail and airplane services. More on that later.
2018.5
2009
2012
2015
2017
2018.2

9. + 60,000 Chrysler Minivans

10. + 60,000 Chrysler Minivans

11. Where will Waymo Deploy 20,000 + 60,000 autonomousTaxis
Maybe they’ll “Spread the Mobility Experience”
Start by operating 1K in 20 different “cities”
Geo-fenced “communities of ~ 300,000” (serve 5% of personTrips)
Add 2K to 1st 20 (grow to 15% personTrip share) + 1K in 20 more “Communities of 300k

12. Where will Waymo Deploy 20,000 autonomousTaxis
Maybe they’ll “Spread the Mobility Experience”
operate 1K in 20 different “cities”
How about “Central New Jersey” ?
Microcosm of USA
Pop: ~300K
Intra-area Trips/day: ~ 1.0M/day
1K aTaxis would serve ~ 5% personTrips
Numerous Mobility Disadvantaged
whose quality-of-life would be improved substantially! h

13. Discussion!
Thank You