1. Tweet about this presentation #TransitGIS
Using GIS Analysis to Develop Transit Market Areas
Kyle O’Donnell Burrows
Metro Transit
Title
Speaker Information
Tweet about this presentation #TransitGIS

2. Local Context 186 Cities and Townships 96 in Capital 7 Counties
Levy District
7 Counties
81 in Metro Transit
Service Area
15 served by
STAs }{

3. The Problem
How can we allocate our limited resources in a fair, efficient, and cost-effective manner?
While maximizing ridership and providing transit access across the region
How can we communicate those decisions in a way that:
Is clear and understandable
Is not personal
Provides communities with a way forward

4. Transit Market Areas What are Transit Market Areas? Methodology
Application
Planning Tool
Communication Tool
Caveats and lessons learned

5. Transit Market Areas – What are they?
A classification tool
used to:
identify relative propensity to use transit across the Twin Cities region
guide allocation of transit resources – what types and levels of service can a given area support?
based on:
an index of demographic and land use factors
Population density
Employment density
Intersection density
Auto deficit density

6. }{

7. Past Transit Market Index formula
Population + 1/3(Employment) + Auto Avail.*
TMI =
Developed Acres
*Auto Availability = Total population over 16 – available automobiles

8. Update to the Transit Market Index
Are population, employment, and automobile deficit the best available indicators of a propensity to ride transit?
Are the specific factors equal in importance – or should they be weighted, when considered together?
Should additional factors be considered – particularly relating to the built form?

9. Methodology
Determine predictor variables to include in Transit Market Index (TMI)
Calculate Transit Market Index for each U.S. Census defined Block Group in our region
Combine Block Groups based on TMI values to form distinct Transit Market Areas
Review and refine Transit Market Area boundaries using geographic smoothing

10. Regression Analysis of Possible Predictors
Response variable: stop-level bus transit boarding and alighting data from Automated Passenger Counters on-board vehicles (for local routes)
Possible predictor variables: drawn from past research, industry knowledge/expertise, local desire to include indicator of built form
Controlled for level of existing transit service (sum of daily transit trips on distinct routes by direction)

11. Potential predictor variables tested
Employment density
Population density -or- Net housing density
Automobile availability -or- No vehicle households per developed acre
Commercial buildings floor area ratio
Intersection density
Land use diversity index
Centrality – number of jobs within a 5 mile radius

12. Best Fit Model
𝐿𝑁 𝑇𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑃𝑜𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 =4+0.64∗𝐿𝑁 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠 +0.20∗𝐿𝑁 𝐸𝑚𝑝𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠 +0.11∗𝐿𝑁 𝑉𝑒ℎ𝐷𝑒𝑓𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠 +0.23∗𝐿𝑁 𝐼𝑛𝑡𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠 +1.65(𝑀𝑆𝑃𝐴𝑖𝑟𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡) Log-log regression model used so coefficients = elasticities

13. Best Factors to Include in TMI
Every 1% increase in…
Results in a theoretical ridership increase of…
Population Density…………...
Intersection Density………….
Employment Density………...
Auto Avail. Density……
0.64% 0.23% 0.20% 0.11%

14. Transit Market Index formula
0.64*Population Density
0.23*Intersection Density
0.20*Employment Density
0.11*Auto Deficit Density
TMI =

15. Population Density
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑑 𝐿𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑠

16. Employment Density
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐸𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑑 𝐿𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑠

17. Intersection Density
𝑊𝑒𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑑 𝐿𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑠

18. Auto Deficit Density
𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟 16 −𝐴𝑣𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝐴𝑢𝑡𝑜𝑠 𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑑 𝐿𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑠

19. TMI Block Groups }{ Highest Potential Ridership Approx. 2X previous
Lowest Potential Ridership
Approx. 2X previous
Approx. 2X previous
Approx. 2X previous }{

20. }{

21. Transit Market Areas as a Planning Tool
Form the basis of the regional Route Design Guidelines providing recommendations regarding:
Route spacing
Frequency
Span of service
Etc.
Provide guidance for the types and levels of service that are typically appropriate in a given area

22. Transit Market Areas as a Planning Tool
Typical Transit Service
Market Area I
Dense network of local routes with highest levels of service accommodating a wide variety of trip purposes.
Market Area II
Similar network structure to Market Area I with reduced level of service as demand warrants.
Market Area III
Primary emphasis is on commuter express bus service. Suburban local routes providing basic coverage.
Market Area IV
Peak period express service is appropriate as local demand warrants.
Market Area V
Not well-suited for fixed-route service.

23. Transit Market Areas as a Communication Tool
Simple way to show how potential transit ridership is distributed throughout the region
Communities and planners can see what they can reasonably expect relative to the rest of the region
Objective measure – they do not take politics or community boundaries into account
Educational tool – how can communities develop to support the transit levels they want?

24. Transit Market Areas as a Communication Tool
Market Area I
Market Area II

25. Transit Market Areas as a Communication Tool
Market Area III
Market Area IV

26. Caveats and Lessons Learned
Regional tool – does not replace planning at the route-level
Based on US Census Block Groups – Market Areas are determined by those boundaries
Regression analysis allows us to better calibrate the Transit Market Index formula to our region

27. Kyle O’Donnell Burrows Transit Planner kyle.burrows@metrotransit.org
THANK YOU
Kyle O’Donnell Burrows
Transit Planner