1. America’s Perfect Storm
Irwin Kirsch ETS
ABE Summer Institute
St. Cloud, MN
August 5, 2009

2. 11/24/2018
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3. Three Forces Are Changing Our Nation’s Future
The continuing evolution of the economy and the nation’s job structure, requiring higher levels of skills from an increasing proportion of workers
Inadequate literacy and numeracy skills among large segments of our student and adult populations
An ongoing shift in the demographic profile of our population, powered by the highest immigration rates in nearly a century
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4. A Changing Economy
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5. Mean task input as percentiles of
Changes in the Demand for Workplace
Skills 40 45 50 55 60 65
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Routine Manual
Nonroutine manual
Routine cognitive
Nonroutine interative
Nonroutine analytical
Mean task input as percentiles of
the 1960 task distribution
Source: Levy and Murnane, The New Division of Labor
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6. What are the new basic skills?
Non-Cognitive
ICT
Problem Solving
Cognitive
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7. change in millions of adults
Jobs associated with college-level skills and education accounted for two-thirds of the job growth between 1984 and 2000.
Occupational group
1984
millions
2000
Absolute
change in millions of adults
Percentage
change
All 16+
105.0
135.0
30.0
29.0
High literacy
34.0
54.0
20.0
57.0
Moderate literacy
70.0
80.0
10.0
14.3
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8. change in millions of adults
Jobs requiring high levels of education and skills are projected to account for almost half of the job growth over the next decade.
Occupational group
2004
millions
2014
Absolute
change in millions of adults
Percentage
change
All 16+
146.0
165.0
19.0
13.0
High literacy
49.0
58.0
9.0
18.0
Moderate literacy
97.0
107.0
10.0
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9. The expected lifetime earnings of males have changed dramatically
between 1979 and 2004 resulting in a growing inequality favoring
those with higher levels of education.
Educational Attainment
1979
(millions)
2004
Percentage
change
No HS diploma or GED
1.5
.96
-39.0
HS diploma or GED
1.8
1.4
-23.0
1-3 years of college; AA degree
2.0
1.7
-13.0
Bachelor’s degree
2.736
2.702
-1.2
Master’s or higher degree
3.0
3.5
15.0
All
1.879
1.902
1.2
Educational Attainment
1979
2004
HS vs. College
50%
96%
College vs. Grad.
11%
30%
HS vs. Grad
67%
254%
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10. Wage and salary earnings reflected a shared prosperity through 1975
Wage and salary earnings reflected a shared prosperity through Between then and now we have seen a growing inequality.
Percentage Change in Earnings Since 1961
Tabulations of annual March Current Population Survey Data, by David Ellwood, Harvard University.
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11. Inadequate Skill Distributions
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12. National Adult Literacy Survey (NALS, 1992)
Literacy surveys conducted by ETS have represented literacy along scales divided into 5 levels. National and international committees have judged that skills in Levels 3 and higher are needed for participation in modern societies.
National Adult Literacy Survey (NALS, 1992)
Less Proficient
More Proficient
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13. Literacy skills are related to level of educational attainment
350
336, graduate degree
322, 4-year degree
308, 2-year degree
Level 3
300
294, some college
270;268, HS Diploma; GED
Level 2
250
231, 9-12 years of schooling
Level 1
200
177, 0-8 years of schooling
< Level 1
150
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14. Adults in Levels 3 and higher had a better than 90 percent chance of passing the GED.98 88
Percentage- Passing GED 58 27 **
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Level 5
SOURCE: The Literacy Proficiencies of GED Examinees: Results from the GED-NALS
Comparison Study. (1995). Baldwin, J., Kirsch, I., Rock, D., & Yamamoto, K.
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15. Mean Prose Proficiencies of Employed U. S
Mean Prose Proficiencies of Employed U.S. Adults and Their Percentile Ranks on the International Prose Distribution, by Major Occupational Group
Occupational Group
Mean Score
Percentile Rank on International Scale
U.S. Rank Among 19 High-Income Countries
Managers and professionals
316
77nd
3rd
Technical and associated professionals
313
76th
2nd
Clerical and administrative support
291
62nd
10th
Service and lower-level sales
269
46th
15th
Craft workers
245
31st
16th
Assemblers and operatives
244
13th (tie)
Laborers and agricultural/fishery workers
242
30th
Source: IALS Survey. 1994
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16. Percentage of Adults 16-65 Years Old at:
Half of America’s adults lack literacy skills needed for the 21st century.
Percentage of Adults Years Old at:
Level 1
Level 1
Level 2
Level 2
Level 3
Level 3
Levels 4/5
Levels 4/5
All Adults
Asian
Black
Hispanic
White
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17. High School Graduation rates peaked at 77% in 1969 and have remained in the 70% range since 1995.
Graduates as a Percentage of 17-Year-Old Population
Graduates are of regular day-school programs. Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics
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18. Reading scores have remained flat since the release of A Nation at Risk report in Math scores have fared only slightly better than reading.
NAEP Assessment Years
Reading
1984
1990
1996
2004
Age 13
257
258
259
Age 17
289
290
288
285
Math
1986
1992
269*
273*
274*
281
302*
307
* Significantly different from 2004
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19. Average achievement gaps in both reading and math have remained stubbornly unchanged.
1984
1994
2004
White-Black
Age 13 26
31* 22
Age 17 32 30 29
White-Hispanic 23
30* 24 27 33
Math
1986
1996 28 19 25 21
* Significantly different from 2004
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20. U.S. Rank Among 29 Countries
The U.S. is not among the world’s leaders in any area of educational achievement.
Math
Reading
Science
U.S. Average Score
483
495
491
OECD Average
500
494
U.S. Rank Among 29 Countries
24th
15th
20th
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21. The Percent of Adults with an Associate’s Degree or Higher in the US and Other OECD Countries
Source: OECD Education at a Glance 2005
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22. What these and other data tell us is that America no longer leads the world in terms of high school graduation rates or in terms of acquired skills in key areas of achievement. And, we are losing ground in terms of the percentages of our graduates who go on to attain a post-secondary degree.
“In a global economy where the most valuable skill you can sell is your knowledge, a good education is no longer just a pathway to opportunity - it is a pre-requisite.”
President Barack Obama, February 2009
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23. Shifting Demographics
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24. America’s labor force will grow more slowly over the next 20 years, with almost none of the growth expected to come from native-born workers.
Growth
Growth
Natives, 25-54, All races
26.7
0.0
Natives 55+, All races
2.7
13.3
Immigrants
9.3
6.0
TOTAL
38.7
19.4
Numbers represent millions of adults
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25. Immigration is projected to account for more than half of our population growth between now and 2015.
Time Period
Population
Growth
(millions)
Net
International
Migration
Net Immigration as a
Percentage of
Population Change
April 2000 – July 2005 (Actual)
15.0
6.3 42
2005–2010 Projected
13.4
6.7 50
Projected
7.1 53
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26. Immigration patterns have changed dramatically over the past 100 years
Immigration patterns have changed dramatically over the past 100 years. New immigrants to the U.S. are quite diverse with respect to their country of origin.
100%
80%
Asia
Central/South America
60%
Proportions
Canada
Europe
40%
Australia and New Zealand
Africa
20% 0%
1820–1940
1951–60
1971–80
Years
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27. Educational Attainment
Between new immigrants 18 years of age and older entered the U.S. with a broad range of educational backgrounds
Educational Attainment
Number (millions)
Percentage
1-12 years, no diploma
1.7 34
high school diploma or GED
1.1 23
13-15 years .8 15
Bachelor’s degree 17
Master’s or higher degree .6 11
Total
5.0
100
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28. Educational Attainment Master’s or higher degree
44% of births to women under 30 are out of wedlock. The majority of these births take place among women with either no high school diploma or no postsecondary education
Educational Attainment
Total
Births
Out-of-Wedlock
Percentage Out of
Wedlock
<12 or 12, no diploma
563,288
350,847
62.2
12 years, diploma or GED
743,151
381,060
51.3
13-15 Years
666,328
242,920
36.7
Bachelor’s degree
268,238
33,669
12.6
Master’s or higher degree
62,313
2,691
4.3
All
2,298,318
1,011,077
44.0
Source: 2004 American Community Surveys; public-use files; tabulations by authors.
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29. What might the future look like?
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30. Distribution of Literacy Scores Found in the National Adult Literacy Survey (1992)
70 million adults
in levels 1/2
Less Proficient
More Proficient
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31. Average literacy scores are expected to decline between 1992 and 2030, with an increase in the amount of inequality.
70 million increase
to 119 million
in 2030
Less Proficient
More Proficient
Less Proficient
More Proficient
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32. The Need for a New Human Capital Agenda
“…every American will need to get more than a high school diploma. And dropping out of high school is no longer an option. It's not just quitting on yourself, it's quitting on your country - and this country needs and values the talents of every American.”
“by 2020, America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world.“
President Barack Obama, February 2009
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33. Percent among adults who are now 36-43 years old
Reading and math scores in high school have a strong influence on the likelihood of completing 16 or more years of schooling.
Percent among adults who are now years old
Decile
All
Men
Women
White
Black
Hispanic
Total
26.46
25.77
27.18
30.25
14.92
14.57
2nd decile
2.20
1.73
2.72
0.67
4.26
2.60
4th decile
8.84
6.40
11.04
6.26
15.07
12.94
6th decile
15.35
9.01
20.95
13.61
26.54
19.91
8th decile
32.75
31.49
33.98
33.05
44.13
10th decile
76.15
75.76
76.72
76.53
72.13
79.47
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34. President Obama noted in his State of the Union address:
“I reject the view that says our problems will simply take care of themselves; that government has no role in laying the foundation for our common prosperity.”
“We are a nation that has seen promise amid peril, and claimed opportunity from ordeal.”
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35. Our history reminds us that at times of economic turmoil and transformation, our nation has responded with big ideas and bold action.
In response to the Industrial Revolution we developed the best free public education system in the world.
We also created the world’s best system of colleges and universities and after World War II, through the GI Bill, educated a generation which helped create the most educated and productive workforce in the world.
This workforce put a man on the moon and helped develop an explosion of technology that still shapes our world.
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36. what will happen, but give us the determination
Let us not be content to wait and see
what will happen, but give us the determination
to make the right things happen.
— Horace Mann I
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37. For more information contact: Irwin Kirsch ETS Princeton, NJ 08541
Office: (609)
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