1. Geospatial analysis of near-term potential for carbon-negative bioenergy in the U.S.
Professor Sally M. Benson
Department of Energy Resources Engineering
Stanford, CA
Hi everyone,
My name is EJ and I am a graduate student here at ERE working with Sally. Today I will be talking about a project that we in collaboration with some other people in university conducted on the near-term potential for carbon negative bioenergy in the U.S.
CMI Meeting
April, 2018
Geospatial analysis of near-term potential for carbon-negative bioenergy in the United States, Ejeong BAIK, Daniel L. SANCHEZ, Peter A. TURNER, Katharine J. MACH, Christopher B. FIELD, Sally M. BENSON, PNAS, 2018.
Near-term Potential for Carbon-Negative Bioenergy in the United States and Pathways of Meeting the Potential, Ejeong BAIK, Daniel L. SANCHEZ, Peter A. TURNER, Katharine J. MACH, Christopher B. FIELD, Sally M. BENSON, International Conference on CO2 Negative Emissions, May 22-24, 2018.

2. Takeaways
Near-term BECCS potential limited by transportation (~ co-location of resources)
Approximately 30% of the biomass potential in the U.S. overlaps with a storage site
Resulting negative emissions potential in the U.S.:
Mt CO2/yr in 2020
Mt CO2/yr in 2040
BECCS potential is widespread
Small scale of typical transportation-limited BECCS lacks economies of scale
Helps define the near-term opportunities that minimize social and economic barriers to BECCS deployment

3. Components of BECCS Biomass Transport (Biomass) Capture
Transport (CO2)
Storage
Energy

4. This study

5. Distribution of biomass production per county in 2020
1. Biomass availability
Distribution of biomass production per county in 2020
This is a map showing the distribution of biomass and geologic storage sites, as well as exiting CO2 pipeline in the US
WE use biomass data from the US DOE Billion Ton Study and Storage Site Data from the USGS national assessment of geologic carbon dioxide storage resources
Biomass production density is by county- and you can see here that it is heavily skewed to below 0.1 Mt of biomass a year per county
This translates to a total CO2 content of ~ in 202 and in 2040.
The USGS estimated aggregated storage capacity is approximately ~3000 Gt CO2 per year
Aggregate storage capacity is likely not a problem and this is a conclusion that several other studies have come to..
Biomass Data: U.S. DOE Billion Ton Study

6. 1. Biomass availability 2020 Projection 2040 Projection
Biomass (~ Mt CO2/yr)
2040 Projection
This is a map showing the distribution of biomass and geologic storage sites, as well as exiting CO2 pipeline in the US
WE use biomass data from the US DOE Billion Ton Study and Storage Site Data from the USGS national assessment of geologic carbon dioxide storage resources
Biomass production density is by county- and you can see here that it is heavily skewed to below 0.1 Mt of biomass a year per county
This translates to a total CO2 content of ~ in 202 and in 2040.
The USGS estimated aggregated storage capacity is approximately ~3000 Gt CO2 per year
Aggregate storage capacity is likely not a problem and this is a conclusion that several other studies have come to..
Biomass (~ Mt CO2/yr)

7. 2. Storage capacity varies widely
Storage Site Data: USGS National Assessment of Geologic Carbon Dioxide Storage Resources
Estimated aggregate storage capacity:
Aggregate storage capacity is not likely a limiting factor for BECCS deployment
Regional storage capacities vary widely
~3,000 Gt CO2

8. 2. Storage Capacity is Large Compared to BECCS Potential

9. 3. Injectivity varies widely
Low injectivity indicates higher risks of pressure buildup and leakage
Calculate storage injectivity given porosity, permeability, and depth of each storage site
Regional injectivity widely varies

10. Combine components

11. Resulting negative emissions potential in the U.S.
>1,000 counties
Negative Emissions Potential
[Mt CO2/yr]
2020
2040
Total
1,040-1,780
with co-located storage
with sufficient storage capacity and injectivity
What we’ve done here is show the co-located biomass and storage sites-in other words, the areas that would be the most suitable for near-term BECCS deployment b/c of the presence of both biomass and storage sites, without the need of transportation infrastructure. About a third of the biomass producing counties were also co-located with a storage site, which translates to about 1000 counties.
If the total available was ~ Mt CO2/yr, there are only Mt CO2/yr that are co-located with a storage site, and ifw e also consider biomass that overlays only suitable storage sites, we see that the total engative emissions potetnail in 2020 are Mt CO2 yr
BECCS in Highest 200 production counties -> negative emissions potential of approximately 50 Mt CO2 /yr

12. Resulting negative emissions potential in the U.S.
Cumulative CO2 from biomass from counties in 2020 and 2040
What we’ve done here is show the co-located biomass and storage sites-in other words, the areas that would be the most suitable for near-term BECCS deployment b/c of the presence of both biomass and storage sites, without the need of transportation infrastructure. About a third of the biomass producing counties were also co-located with a storage site, which translates to about 1000 counties.
If the total available was ~ Mt CO2/yr, there are only Mt CO2/yr that are co-located with a storage site, and ifw e also consider biomass that overlays only suitable storage sites, we see that the total engative emissions potetnail in 2020 are Mt CO2 yr
BECCS in Highest 200 production counties -> negative emissions potential of approximately 50 Mt CO2 /yr

13. Comparison with integrated assessment models
BECCS [Gt CO2/yr]
*Taken from Peters and Geden (2017)
Negative Emissions Potential [Mt CO2/yr]
2020
2040
Total
1,040-1,780
with co-located storage
with sufficient storage capacity and injectivity
Without Energy Crops
2040 Negative Emissions Potential: Mt CO2/yr

14. Power Generation Potential With BECCS
Current U.S. biomass electricity generation: ~0.2 EJ
>1,000 counties
2020
2040
Negative Emissions Potential [Mt CO2/yr]
Corresponding Energy [EJ]
0.3
1-2
Corresponding Capacity [GW]
10-12
40-70
We briefly discuss the implications of trying to meet all the negative emissions potential.
We look at the corresponding energy and capacity of that negative emissions potential.
The total negative emissions potential of Mt CO2/yr translates to 0.3 EJ in energy and GW for generating capacity. Given that current U.S> biomass generation is aobout 0.2 EJ, capturing all the potential would imply more than doubling the electricity generated from biomass in the U.S> by 2020, andincrease almost tenfold by 2040.
Furthermore, given that we are considering a transportation constrained world, if we assume a BECCS powerplant in each county of co-located biomass and storage site, half of the power plants would have a capacity of less than 12 MW, and we would have to install more than a 1000 power plants, which is a significant investment.
Based on this map, we also highlight areas of high biomass production and suitable storage to highlight areas that would be the most suitable for near-term BECCS deployment. Those three areas are the Gulf region, Illionis Basin, and Western North Dakota.
The BECCS demonstration project is in the Illinois basin, and there is also another BECCS project in prepration in western North Dakota, showing that are results are cosnsitent or reflective of the real opportunities that exisit.
Going beyond discussing potential, studies like this can help define the enxt steps of achiveng that potential.
And help inform near-term opportunities that minimize social and economic barriers to BECCS deployment.
Currently in the U.S.:
11 GW capacity of biomass electricity
approximately 300 biomass power plants with a median capacity of 23 MW
BECCS power plant capacity [MW]
5th percentile
50th percentile
95th percentile

15. Local Transportation Option: ~50 Mile Radius
2020 BECCS Potential
6500 mi2 collection area
100 Mt/yr potential in 2020
231 projects
Mean power plant size: 105 MW (range of 1 to 240 MW )
Mean emissions per project: 0.5 Mt/yr
236 injection wells needed

16. Conclusion
Approximately 30% of the biomass potential in the U.S. is overlapping with a storage site
Resulting negative emissions potential in the U.S.:
Mt CO2/yr in 2020
Mt CO2/yr in 2040
BECCS potential is widespread
Helps define the near-term opportunities that minimize social and economic barriers to BECCS deployment