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Validation of High-Resolution Precipitation Products over the U.S.

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Presentation on theme: "Validation of High-Resolution Precipitation Products over the U.S."— Presentation transcript:

1 Validation of High-Resolution Precipitation Products over the U.S.
John Janowiak Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS Workshop on the Evaluation of High Resolution Precipitation Products World Meteorological Organization Geneva, Switzerland December 3-5, 2007

2 Typical Rain Gauge Distribution

3

4 Summer CMORPH Hydroestimator NCEP Model (GFS)

5 Winter CMORPH Hydroestimator NCEP Model (GFS)

6 Statistics are performed on a continental scale
- useful - manageable - but …

7

8 JJAS Standard Deviation 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
Note the relative smoothness in Persiann pattern

9 Standard Deviation JJAS

10 CORRELATION JJAS

11 CORRELATION JJAS

12 CORRELATION DJFM

13 CORRELATION DJFM

14 BIAS JJAS

15 BIAS JJAS

16 Precipitation Frequency Ratio: (est./gauge) JJAS (2004-2006)

17 Ratio of # of precip. events > 25 mm/dy for JJAS (2004-2006)

18 Probability of Detection
JJAS

19 Probability of Detection
JJAS

20 Probability of Detection
DJFM

21 Probability of Detection
DJFM

22 Differences due to Sampling
CMORPH(3h) - CMORPH 3B42RT - CMORPH Differences between CMORPH & 3B42RT are due to more than sampling, i.e. the manner in which the daily sums are computed Note better performance of 3B42RT in 1st 2 weeks of June “CMORPH(3h)” means daily totals made from 3hr instantaneous estimates, i.e. not the sum of the six 30 minute periods

23 Findings Relevant to Workshop Goals
Recommendations to IPWG & IGWCO If they find the PERHPP results are useful then those entities should raise awareness to other relevant projects/initiatives

24 Findings Relevant to Workshop Goals
How can PEHRPP link to other precip. activities? PEHRPP has a natural link to int’l programs such as GPCP and the validation effort for GPM Recommendation: effort should be made to keep GPM & abreast of PEHRPP activities and results

25 Findings Relevant to Workshop Goals
Continuation & Direction of PEHRPP Considerable time & effort expended already & infrastructure exists – Recommend continuing Data & statistics generation/collection impressive but analysis to date is ad hoc Recommend a direction that focuses on analysis of results, specifically to investigate occurrences of disagreement among satellite/NWP estimates in time and space

26 Extra Slides

27

28 Standard Deviation DJFM

29 Standard Deviation DJFM

30 RMSE JJAS

31 RMSE JJAS

32 RMSE DJFM

33 RMSE DJFM

34 BIAS DJFM

35 BIAS DJFM

36 False Alarm Ratio JJAS Note ‘color reversal’ i.e. reds are low not high values, but LOW is GOOD for FAR

37 False Alarm Ratio JJAS

38 False Alarm Ratio DJFM

39 False Alarm Ratio DJFM

40

41

42

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