1. James Kendell Acting Chair, EGEDA Vice President, APERC
The 49th Meeting of APEC Expert Group on New and Renewable Energy Technologies (EGNRET49) Tokyo, Japan Tracking APEC’s Renewable Energy Doubling Goal
James Kendell
Acting Chair, EGEDA
Vice President, APERC
Traditionally, the chair of the Expert Group on Energy Data and Analysis would give you an overview of EGEDA activities, including data collection, publication, and training.
This morning, I’m going to do something different. I’m going to talk about how to calculate the renewable doubling goal. Our lead shepherd is pressing EGNRET to move forward with the doubling goal, but we still aren’t sure what goes in the numerator and the denominator. So, that’s what I’m going to talk about today.
This is the first time I’ve talked about how to do the calculation. So, I might not have identified all the issues. As I go through this, please note any other issues that I haven’t talked about. I hope that we’ll have a chance to talk more about this tomorrow afternoon.

2. APEC’s renewable energy (RE) doubling goal
Outline
APEC’s renewable energy (RE) doubling goal
Considerations in tracking progress
APEC renewable energy data collection
Renewable energy in primary energy supply
Renewable energy in final energy consumption
Recommendation for tracking the renewable energy doubling goal
Here’s the outline of my talk. I’m going to discuss: …

3. APEC’s renewable energy doubling goal
EMM : “Doubling the share of renewables in the APEC energy mix, including in power generation, from levels by 2030.”
Energy ministers instructed the EWG through the EGNRET to develop the road map
Leaders’ meeting 2015: reaffirmed the doubling goal
Let’s start with the goal itself, which you are all well aware of.
In 2014 the energy ministers set a goal of: … It’s important to remember that the goal is to double the share, not just the absolute quantity of renewables, because doubling the share is harder. …

4. APEC renewable energy data collection
APERC collects annual data on all energy products from the 21 member economies including the following:
Hydroelectricity
Geothermal heat and electricity
Solar heat and electricity
Wind electricity
Biomass (fuelwood, wood wastes, agricultural waste, etc.)
Liquid biofuels
Biogases
Wastes
By way of some more background, let me give you an idea of the renewable energy data collected by APEC. These data are collected annually from the member economies by the Energy Statistics and Training Office in Tokyo. ESTO is located in APERC and is the secretariat for EGEDA.
So, ESTO collects data on…
I’ll refer to these data as APEC data.

5. Considerations in tracking progress
In tracking progress, What data should be used? IEA or APEC data?
APERC energy outlook uses IEA data
In tracking progress in energy intensity reduction, APERC uses APEC data (final energy consumption without non-energy use divided by
Should APEC data be used in tracking RE share?
What to measure? Share in total primary energy supply (TPES) or total final energy consumption (TFEC)?
TPES can be calculated using three different methods resulting in different values
TFEC always has the same value for all the three methods
There are several issues that must be resolved in defining the renewable doubling goal, including the data source, at what point the measurement is made, and what is included in renewables.
First is the data issue. In the 6th edition of the APEC outlook APERC used IEA data to calculate the 2010 base and then the projections to Recently in the Overview, APERC used APEC data and in a few slides, I’ll show you some calculations with APEC data. I should also note that the last EWG meeting decided to use APEC data to calculate energy intensity. The trade off here is between more complete IEA data with more estimation, and less complete APEC data with more official approval.
Second is the issue of at what point should the measurement be made—on the supply side or the demand side? Should renewables be calculated as a percentage of primary energy supply or as a percentage of final energy consumption? For now, I’ll note that there are at least three ways to calculate primary energy supply, but only one way to calculate final energy consumption.

6. Considerations in tracking progress
Traditional biomass, exclude or include?
Three member economies are not able to report consumption of this energy source
It is possible that some member economies cannot disaggregate biomass into modern and traditional biomass
Large hydro
Except for pumped-storage hydro, UN IRES definition consider hydro regardless of size of the power plants as renewable energy
Geothermal
UN IRES consider geothermal as renewable energy
The third issue is what to count as a renewable. Here I’d like to talk about three issues: biomass, hydro and geothermal.
Biomass is further divided into traditional and modern biomass. Traditional biomass is used for mainly for heating and cooking at home, and is often not a marketed energy source. Because it’s not marketed, it’s often hard to count. Three member economies--China, Malaysia and Papua New Guinea—don’t currently have official estimates of traditional biomass. Modern biomass is specially prepared, used mainly by power plants, and is a marketed energy source. Some economies may not be able to statistically separate traditional and modern biomass.
The second source is hydro. Although there’s been some question about whether large hydro should be included, United Nations International Recommendations for Energy Statistics of the UN Statistical Commission include it, as do most energy analysts. Pumped hydro is a different story however, because that energy could be the product of burning fossil fuels.
The third source is geothermal. The UN Statistical Commission includes that in renewables because geothermal energy is considered stored energy from the sun.

7. Renewable energy in primary energy supply
ESTO prepares the energy balances using the physical energy content method*
In this method, the normal physical value of the primary energy form is used for the production figure
For hydro, solar PV and wind, the primary energy form is the electricity output
For electricity generation from primary heat such as: nuclear, geothermal and concentrating solar; heat is the primary energy form
Since it is difficult to measure the heat flow to the turbines, UN IRES recommends that an estimate of heat input be used based on an efficiency of 33% for nuclear and concentrating solar, and 10% for geothermal
The other methods are substitution method and direct equivalent method
Now let’s look at the supply side. If we decide to track the renewable energy share on the supply side, we can choose from at least three methods—the physical energy content method, the substitution method, or the direct equivalent method.
ESTO uses the physical energy content method for calculate energy balances. In this method, the physical value of the primary energy is used. Primary energy for hydro, solar PV, and wind is the electricity output. For electric generation from the heat of nuclear, geothermal and concentrating solar, a standard efficiency rate is used to calculate the physical energy content.
* UNSD International Recommendations on Energy Statistics. New York.

8. Primary RE supply calculated using three methods
Unit: ktoe
This table shows the calculation for 2010 and 2015 for three supply side methods.
You’ll notice that the data are different in the lines highlighted in yellow. So, in the most extreme case, the values for geothermal can be 10 times a different method.
As a result, the renewable share in 2015 varies from 7.2% to 12.4%. And the percentage growth from 2010 to 2015 varies from 16% to 22%.
Note: Thermal efficiency used in the substitution method is 33%. Traditional and modern biomass are included. Unreported biomass is excluded.
Source: APEC data.

9. Renewable energy in final energy consumption
Including all biomass
Excluding traditional biomass
Unit: ktoe
Now, let’s move to the demand side. This table shows renewable energy consumption as a percentage of total final energy consumption. If you compare this table with the previous table, you’ll see that these numbers are smaller, because these numbers do not include the heat of transformation in refineries and power plants.
This table is calculated two ways—with and without traditional biomass. You can see that all the numbers in the table are the same, except the biomass numbers. In 2015 the renewable share varies from 8.2% to 9.4%, rising 1.2 to 1.4 percentage point. In terms of percent the renewable percentage rises 15% for all biomass, and 21% for just modern biomass. These five years represent 25% of the time between 2010 and 2030.
I spoke before about the problems of counting traditional biomass. Another problem is that modern biomass use is increasing, while traditional biomass use is decreasing. This is because the efficiency of cooking and heating with traditional biomass is increasing and because people are moving toward marketed energy sources and away from traditional biomass.
Note: Consumption of electricity and heat from renewables is calculated from the share of total electricity and heat production. Unreported biomass is excluded.
Source: APEC data.

10. Findings
The quality of data on traditional biomass is non-OECD APEC economies may not be reliable yet and three economies are not able to report consumption of this energy source
There are different ways of calculating primary energy from non- combustible sources resulting in different values while final energy consumption are the same using the same methodologies
It would therefore be reasonable to:
Exclude traditional biomass in the calculation of total consumption and renewable energy share
Track the renewable energy doubling goal as a share in final energy consumption
So, in summary….

11. Recommendation for tracking RE doubling
ESTO would like to recommend that the share of renewable energy in total final energy consumption excluding traditional biomass should be the indicator that should be used to track progress in the doubling goal
6.8%
8.2%
Therefore, …
This should be taken as a preliminary recommendation. Some of you may have other issues or considerations that you’d like to discuss. Some of you might want to see more calculations.
If we don’t get a chance to talk about this today, I hope that we can discuss this tomorrow afternoon, so that we can have something to report at the EWG in a few weeks.
Note: Renewable energy includes electricity and heat generated from renewable energy sources.
Source: APEC data.

12. Thank you for your kind attention
In conclusion, I’d like us to remember the old cliché that if it doesn’t get measured, it doesn’t get done. In other words, we have to be able to track the renewable doubling goal in order to determine our progress.