1. 2010 High Plains Crop Update
Dr. Randy Boman
Texas AgriLife Extension Service
Texas AgriLife Research and Extension Center, Lubbock

2. Q: What was planted. A: Continued Grower. Gravitation to
Q: What was planted? A: Continued Grower Gravitation to Technology in 2010

3. 2010 USDA-AMS Cotton Varieties Planted
Lubbock:
67% FiberMax, 10% Americot/NexGen, 4% All-Tex, 3% Deltapine, 1% Stoneville, <1% PhytoGen, <1% FiberMax 958 conventional, 15% Unidentified other
Lamesa:
43% FiberMax, 12% Americot/NexGen, 9% Deltapine, 6% Stoneville, 10% FiberMax 958 conventional, 1% All-Tex, <1% PhytoGen, 21% Unidentified other

4. Identifiable Technologies Planted (Unable to Ascertain “Other”)
Bollgard 2 insect resistance for caterpillar pests
Lubbock: 46%
Lamesa: 60%

5. Identifiable Technologies Planted (Unable to Ascertain “Other”)
Roundup Ready Flex (herbicide tolerant)
Lubbock: 85%
Lamesa: 69%

6. 2010 Challenges and Possible Production Modifiers
Input costs lower due to excellent late winter/spring precipitation
Generally good start; waited on rainfall for dryland in some areas
Low rainfall in June; irrigation initiated by many
Extremely wet July; record rainfall and flooding south of Lubbock
“Yellow cotton” problems after July rainfall
Likely caused by N, Zn deficiencies, perhaps S
Hot, dry August resulted in significant dryland stress in many areas
Hot and dry finish, temperatures similar to 2007

7. Near Tahoka July 4, 2010

8. unsprayed
sprayed
with Zn

9. sprayed
unsprayed low area

10. sprayed
with Zn
unsprayed

11. Pest Pressure Thrips early, especially up north
Seedling disease in some counties where localized heavy rainfall occurred (Swisher/Hale)
Bollworm year for non-Bt varieties in some areas
Bt cotton helping significantly
No documented weed resistance to herbicides yet
Verticillium wilt a continuing and growing challenge
Variety effects
Genetics only source of relief

12. Lubbock LTA (1971-2000) vs. 2010 Rainfall
July (7.14)
18.69” ”
Through April
LTA ”
2010 – 21.52”
Through July
Precipitation (inches)
Source:

13. Lubbock Air Temperatures May, 2010
Temperature (F)
Day of month
313 HU or 7% above
normal (293) for May

14. Lubbock Air Temperatures June, 2010
Temperature (F)
629 HU or 22% above
normal (515) for June
Day of month

15. Lubbock Air Temperatures July, 2010
Temperature (F)
Day of month
539 HU or 13% below
normal (619) for July

16. Lubbock Air Temperatures August, 2010
Temperature (F)
Day of month
627 HU or 13% above
normal (555) for August

17. Lubbock Air Temperatures September, 2010
Temperature (F)
445 HU or 33% above normal (334) for September
Day of month

18. Lubbock Air Temperatures October, 2010
Temperature (F)
Day of month
133 HU or 30% above
normal (103) for October 1-19

19. Lubbock 30-Yr Long Term Average (1971-2000) vs
Lubbock 30-Yr Long Term Average ( ) vs Cotton Heat Unit Accumulation From May 1 through July 31
Heat units (DD60s)
4% above normal
(1480 vs 1426) for 2010
season from May 1
through July 31
1-Aug
Date

20. Lubbock 30-Yr Long Term Average (1971-2000) vs
Lubbock 30-Yr Long Term Average ( ) vs Cotton Heat Unit Accumulation From August 1 through October 31
Heat units (DD60s)
22% above normal from
August 1 through
October 19
Date

21. Harvest Aid Challenges

22. Rest of these are not updated

23. Rest of these are not updated

24. Rest of these are not updated

25. Rest of these are not updated

26. Rest of these are not updated

27. Rest of these are not updated

28. 2010 Crop Quality? Early 2010 crop classing indicates good color
If no rainfall, color should remain good to excellent
No freeze in forecast; wouldn’t likely affect maturity now due to hot September and October thus far
Likely a low bark year; significant rainfall, freeze and weathering may modify this
Leaf grades should be good (avg 2.5 now)

29. 2010 Crop Quality?
Genetics planted should result in good to excellent average staple (maybe about 36)
Hot, dry August and September will likely reduce staple somewhat compared to other recent years
Micronaire should be better than 2008 and 2009 but maybe not quite as good as 2007 (avg 4.1)

30. High Plains Average Staple 1969-2009
2008
All-time
record
Staple (32nds)
Year
2009 Through Jan 15, 2010
Source: USDA-AMS

31. Micronaire Distribution 2004-2009 Percent by Category
Lubbock through Oct 15 at 8% low micronaire on 175,000 bales
Lamesa <1% on 37,000 bales

32. High Plains Average Fiber Strength 1980-2009
2007, 2008 were records
Fiber strength (g/tex)
Year
2009 Through Jan 15, 2010
Source: USDA-AMS

33. 2010 Crop Size?
If TASS estimates hold up, we will harvest 6.16 million bales in 1N and 1S
Estimate is nearly 2.6M bales larger than last year’s crop
1.17 M more standing acres than in 2009

34. High Plains (TASS 1N and 1S) Total Bale Production 1969-2010M
Record! M
Oct estimate
Bales (x 1M)
Average = 2.2M
Year
Source: USDA-NASS

35. NASS Estimate - October 8, 2010
Total 1N acres planted = 810,000
Total 1N acres standing = 760,000
1N abandoned acres = 50,000
1N percent abandonment = 6%
Total 1N bales = 1,670,000
Total 1S acres planted = 2,950,000
Total 1S acres standing = 2,840,000
1S abandoned acres = 110,000
1S Percent abandonment = 4%
Total 1S bales = 4,490,000
Total 1N and 1S (~High Plains) bales = 6,160,000

36. Cotton Yield – 1N and 1S 2007-2009 Actual and October 2010 NASS Estimate?

37. High Plains (TASS 1N and 1S) Planted Acres 1993-2010M
Oct estimate
Acres (x 1M)
Year
Source: USDA-NASS

38. High Plains (TASS 1N and 1S) Total Harvested Acres 1993-2010M
Oct estimate
recent record
Acres (x 1M)
Year
Source: USDA-NASS

39. High Plains (TASS 1N and 1S) Abandoned Acres 1993-2010
Acres (x 1M)
2010 Oct
Estimate of 4.2%
recent record
low
Year
Source: USDA-NASS

40. Questions??