1. Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes by Clark and Eddy, 2017
Summary of Chapter 10
The Computer Scientist: Artificial Intelligence
by Charles Tappert, CSIS, Pace University

2. Book Title and Authors

3. Authors

4. Synopsis

5. Contents – Part 1

6. Contents – Part 2

7. Chap 10 The Computer Scientist: Artificial Intelligence link to PDF
Predicted sequence of events
Weak AI – where we are now
Strong AI – coming
Singularity – coming
Superintelligence – coming
End of humanity – maybe?

8. The Computer Scientist: Artificial Intelligence – Definitions
AI – a computer program that can perform a task that normally must be done by a human
Weak AI – the type of AI that runs everyday devices like computers, smartphones, cars, etc.
Strong AI – AI that can do what a human does
The Singularity – when machines become as intelligent as humans
Superintelligence – an AI smarter than humans
Intelligence Explosion – era of superintelligence

9. The Computer Scientist: Artificial Intelligence – Warning
Nearly all AI scientists predict the intelligence explosion will occur in the next 70 years
Most predict it will happen by 2040
Stephen Hawking warns – “likely to be the best or worst thing ever to happen to humanity, so there’s huge value in getting it right”
Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk echo the concerns
Eliezer Yudkowsky is terrified!
He is the Cassandra here

10. The Computer Scientist: Artificial Intelligence – Cassandra
Eliezer Yudkowsky – images video
Dropped out of school after 8th grade
Founded Machine Intelligence Research Institute
Focuses on foundational mathematical research to ensure that AI has a positive impact on humanity
He is pretty sure he will fail – humanity is doomed!

11. The Computer Scientist: Artificial Intelligence – Demon
Humans will relentlessly pursue the creation of superintelligence because it holds unimaginable promise to transform the world
A superintelligence will recursively self-improve to levels of intelligence that we may not comprehend
Carve new paths of discovery in undiscovered fields
Fueled by perpetual improvements to its own source code and the creation of new robotic tools
May be the last invention humans need to make

12. The Computer Scientist: Artificial Intelligence – Solution
Yudkowsky
Superintelligence must be designed with ethics
Checks and balances to ensure AI growth is controllable
Once AI can reprogram itself it will be too late
A “wait and see” approach not reasonable
Birth of superintelligence could be 5 years out, 40 years out, 60 years out, nobody knows
By the time you know, it will be too late to do anything about it

13. The Computer Scientist: Artificial Intelligence – Form
What form will a superintelligence take?
Many envision a super intelligent robot
More likely is a “disembodied AI”
No discrete, tangible location in a single machine
Program on interconnected computers located anywhere
Attempts to contain potentially dangerous AI will fail

14. The Computer Scientist: Artificial Intelligence – When
In 2013, 550 of the world’s leading AI experts were polled – they predicted human-level AI
10% chance by 2022
50% chance by 2040
90% chance by 2075

15. The Computer Scientist: Artificial Intelligence – Videos
Elon Musk Nick Bostrom Ray Kurzweil Superintelligence - Feb 2017
Elon Musk and other panellists talk AI and answer the question: “If we succeed in building human-level Artificial general intelligence (AGI), then what are the likely outcomes? What would we like to happen?”
Elon Musk – Nick Bostrom – Ray Kurzweil