1. GEOS-5 Data Assimilation and Forecast Impacts for Concordiasi
GEOS-5 configuration:
GEOS-5 AGCM + GSI analysis (~0.5° L72)
20 Sep – 20 Dec 2010
6-h assimilation cycle, 3D-Var
NCEP observation set, ~2.5 million obs assimilated / 6 h
Adjoint-based observation impacts:
24-h forecasts at 00z and 12z (89 Drop cases)
Dry total energy norm: 60°S-90°S, sfc – 50 hPa
Dry adjoint model physics*
* impacts of moisture observations likely under-represented in current results
and should be interpreted with proper caution

2. GEOS-5 24-h Forecast Error Measure for Concordiasi
Average for October − Vertically Integrated Energy
Background Forecast Error
Analysis
Forecast Error
Analysis – Background Forecast Error
(Observation Impact)

3. GEOS-5 24-h Forecast Sensitivity for Concordiasi
Average for October − Vertically Integrated Energy
Background Sensitivity
Analysis
Sensitivity
Analysis - Background Sensitivity
(Observation Impact)

4. GEOS-5 24-h Observation Impact for Concordiasi
Average for October − Area Averaged Energy TE KE
APE TE KE
APE
Analysis – Background h Fcst Error Measure
Analysis - Background h Fcst Error Sensitivity

5. GEOS-5 Observation Impacts for Concordiasi
Average for All Drop Cases − Global Observations
Total Impact
Impact Per Observation
Observation Count
% Beneficial Observations

6. GEOS-5 Observation Impacts for Concordiasi
Average for All Drop Cases − 60°S-90°S Observations
Total Impact
Impact Per Observation
Observation Count
% Beneficial Observations

7. GEOS-5 Observation Impacts for Concordiasi
Average for All Drop Cases − Global Observations
Data Type
Impact
Impact per-ob
Count
10-3 Jkg-1
10-6 Jkg-1
AIRS
-4.44
-0.12
38,319
AMSUA
-44.22
-0.91
48,368
Aircraft
-0.13
-20.51 6
Dropsnd
-1.65
-4.85
341
GPSRO
-17.18
-2.59
6,624
HIRS
-0.35
-0.04
9,665
IASI
-7.97
61,414
LandSfc
-1.11
-2.96
373
MHS
-0.17
1,293
MODIS
-4.10
-0.29
14,339
Raob
-9.00
-6.21
1,450
SatWind
-0.06
-4.29 13
ShipBuoy
-1.25
-32.15 39
WINDSAT
-0.18
-1.36
131

8. GEOS-5 Observation Impacts for Concordiasi
Average for October − All Levels
Drop u
Drop v
Drop T
Drop q
(×20)

9. GEOS-5 Observation Impacts for Concordiasi
Average for October − All Levels
Drop u,v,T,q
Raob u,v,T,q,ps
ShipBuoy u,v,T,q,ps
LandSfc ps

10. GEOS-5 Observation Impacts for Concordiasi
Average for October − 60°S-90°S Observations
Dropsonde
Raob
MODIS
GPSRO
1000
10-3 J/kg 10 30 50 70
100
150
200
300
500
700
400
600
800
1000
10-3 J/kg 10 30 50 70
100
150
200
300
500
700
400
600
800
1000
10-3 J/kg 10 30 50 70
100
150
200
300
500
700
400
600
800
1000
10-3 J/kg 10 30 50 70
100
150
200
300
500
700
400
600
800 u v T q u v T q u v

11. GEOS-5 Observation Impacts for Concordiasi
Time Series of All Drop Cases − 60°S-90°S Observations
DROP
DROP
SHIP/BUOY
RAOB
Improved cases: RAOB-79%, SHIP/BUOY-72%, DROP-67%

12. GEOS-5 Observation Impacts for Concordiasi
Time Series of All Drop Cases − 60°S-90°S Observations
DROP
MODIS
GPSRO
DROP
IASI
AMSU-A
Improved cases: AMSUA-100%, IASI-85%, GPSRO-81%, DROP-67%, MODIS-55%

13. GEOS-5 Observation Impacts for Concordiasi
Average for October − 60°S-90°S Observations
U-wind
Scatter of Impact vs. Innovation
Raob
Drop
Count
23,270
5,883
O-F ave
-0.30 ms-1
-0.32 ms-1
O-F rms
3.12 ms-1
2.76 ms-1
% O-F < 0
54 %
55 %
% O-F > 0
46 %
45 %
Impact/ob
(O-F < 0)
-2.14
10-5 J/kg
-1.11
(O-F > 0)
+0.60
-0.02
Raob u
Drop u

14. GEOS-5 Observation Impacts for Concordiasi
Average for October − 60°S-90°S Observations
Temperature
Scatter of Impact vs. Innovation
Raob
Drop
Count
17,058
5,881
O-F ave
0.28 K
0.37 K
O-F rms
1.87 K
1.91 K
% O-F < 0
47 %
36 %
% O-F > 0
53 %
64 %
Impact/ob
(O-F < 0)
-1.73
10-5 J/kg
-1.46
(O-F > 0)
-0.23
+0.33
Raob T
Drop T