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ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh ECMWF Status Report Stephen English ECMWF.

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Presentation on theme: "ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh ECMWF Status Report Stephen English ECMWF."— Presentation transcript:

1 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh ECMWF Status Report Stephen English ECMWF

2 NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh Brief overview of ECMWF systems and activities Overview of operational satellite data usage / monitoring Research topics related to satellite observations Overview:

3 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Historical reanalysis for climate research Environmental monitoring and modelling Main areas of activity at ECMWF

4 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) HIRES + ENSMonthlySeasonal

5 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh Environmental monitoring and modelling Estimating greenhouse gas concentration and flux inversion Monitoring and forecasting trajectory of dust events Monitoring and forecasting trajectory of volcanic events

6 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh Re-analysis for climate research Trend analysis of climate parameters Improved climatology for process studies Cleansed historical observation data sets

7 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh Operational NWP

8 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh The forecast model

9 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh Grid structure of the Global operational NWP forecast model : (time step = 10mins) 91 levels in the vertical (surface to 0.01hPa) T1279 spectral resolution (~16km grid point spacing) 137 levels in the vertical (surface to 0.01hPa)

10 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh ~210km ~125km ~63km ~39km ~25km ~16km Evolution of ECMWF forecast skill

11 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh The Assimilation System

12 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh Operational 4D-Var Algorithm

13 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh Operational 4D-Var Algorithm VARBC term to correct observation bias Weak constraint term to correct model bias Flow dependent errors from EDA system

14 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh Overview of data usage

15 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh Ground based / launched observations

16 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh Overview of data usage SYNOP/SHIP/METAR: Meteorological/aeronautical land surface weather stations (2m-temperature, dew-point temperature, 10m-wind) BUOYS: Moored buoys (TAO, PIRATA) Drifters TEMP/TEMPSHIP/DROPSONDES: Radiosondes ASAPs (commercial ships replacing stationary weather ships) Dropsondes released from aircrafts (NOAA, Met Office, tropical cyclones, experimental field campaigns, e.g., FASTEX, NORPEX) PROFILERS : UHF/VHF Doppler radars (Europe, US, Japan) Aircraft : AIREPS (manual reports from pilots) AMDARs, ACARs, etc. (automated readings) Now within VarBC!

17 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh Satellite Observations

18 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh Overview of data usage

19 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh Overview of data usage Level-1 radiancesLevel-2 productsLevel-1.5 products AMSU-A, ATMS, MHS, MWTS, MWHS, HIRS, IASI, AIRS, CrIS, SEVIRI, MTSAT, GOES, SSMIS, TMI, SMOS, WindSat SBUV, OMI, GOME2 MLS, SEVIRI, GOES, MTSAT, FY, JASON RA, ENVISAT RA, MERIS, SCIA GRAS, GRACE, CNOFS, COSMIC, TERRASAR-X, ASCAT, OSCAT Level-2* products SST / SNOW / ICE CloudSat, Calipso Research

20 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh Radiances AMSU-A on NOAA-15/18/19, AQUA, Metop-A+B, ATMS on Suomi-NPP (from Sept 2012) AMSU-B/MHS on NOAA-19, Metop-A+B SSMIS on F-17, TMI on TRMM, Windsat on Coriolis HIRS on NOAA-17/19, Metop-A AIRS on AQUA, IASI on Metop-A, CrIS on Suomi-NPP MVIRI on Meteosat-7, SEVIRI on Meteosat-9, GOES-13/15, MTSAT-2 imagers SMOS imager Bending angles COSMIC-1, GRAS on Metop, GRACE-A, Terrasar-X, CNOFS Ozone SBUV on NOAA-17/18, OMI on Aura, AIRS, IASI, HIRS Atmospheric Motion Vectors Meteosat-7/9, GOES-13/15, MTSAT-2, MODIS on Terra/Aqua. FY2 Sea surface parameters Near-surface wind speed from ASCAT on Metop-A, OSCAT on OceanSat Significant wave height from Jason altimeters Overview of data usage

21 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh Automated Satellite Alert and Monitoring http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/monitoring/satellite/

22 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh Automated Satellite Alert and Monitoring http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/monitoring/satellite/

23 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh Automated Satellite Alert and Monitoring

24 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh Out of threshold anomalies trigger alerts on web site and launch emails to key personnel prompting action Automated Satellite Alert and Monitoring 24

25 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh New instruments: FY3 and Suomi-NPP CrIS 14µm ATMS Ch.9MWHS Ch.4 MWTS Ch.3

26 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh R+D activities relevant to NAEDEX

27 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh 27 1. Hyperspectral IR (McNally/Matricardi/Eresmaa) New sensors: CrIS Principal component assimilation Improved cloud screening Use of SW and O3 channels

28 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh 28 2. Microwave sounders (Bell/Lu/DiTomaso/Eresmaa/Bormann/English) Characterisation of bandpass drift in existing sensors Improved microwave surface emissivity New sensors: ATMS, FY3 Observation errors

29 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh 29 3. Microwave Imagers (Bell/Geer/Baordo/English) All sky assimilation including AMSU-A channel 4

30 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh 4. Satellite winds and Geo radiances (Hernandez/Bormann/Salonen/Lupu) AMV error model and understanding AMV QC All sky Geo Radiances Observing model error growth with Geo radiances

31 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh 31 EDA analysis spread for temperature at 100 hPa Tropics N. Hem S. Hem 5. GPSRO (Healy/Harnisch) Tangent point drift EDA experiments: sensitivity to number of observations Surface pressure Contributions to ROM SAF (ROPP)

32 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh Ops, 2010 - 2011 Ops, 2010 - 2011 Ops, 2011 - 2012 Ops, 2011 - 2012 +IR/O 3 +MIPAS No ENVISAT, 2011 – 2012 SBUV (21), 2011 – 2012 6. Ozone (Dragani) +SBUV21 Reference MLS

33 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh 7. Radar and lidar (Janiskova/DiMichele/Martins) Preparing for EarthCARE using CloudSat and Calipso Testing forward operator and adjoint assimilation code Validating model clouds and physical parameterisations Choices of observation error, QC and bias correction

34 ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh Summary Data volumes / instruments continue to increase Automated alert system now fully operational Early CrIS and ATMS results are encouraging Loss of ENVISAT was a major event, especially for ocean and ozone analysis Principal component assimilation has been demonstrated for cloud-free scenes FY3 characterisation led to very valuable re- analysis of errors in MSU and AMSU-A data record EDA techniques used to try to estimate sensitivity of system to number of GPSRO observations

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