1. Global Cocoa prices Kakao Konek – 6 Dec 2017 Simon Bakker
Kennemer Foods

2. Key Determinants of Global Prices
Annual production
Weather and climate
New hectarage
Geopolitical issues
Supply
Demand
Consumption in US / Europe
Emerging markets
Rise in per capita income

3. Developments over last year
Prices decreased last year

4. Developments over last year
Prices decreased last year
Current prices still depressed

5. Developments over last year
Prices decreased last year
Current prices still depressed
Main causes:
Unexpected big harvest in Ivory Coast
Weaker demand in emerging markets Russia and Brazil

6. Developments over last year
Prices decreased last year
Current prices still depressed
Main causes:
Unexpected big harvest in Ivory Coast
Weaker demand in emerging markets Russia and Brazil
Where do we go from here?

7. Developments over last year
Prices decreased last year
Current prices still depressed
Main causes:
Unexpected big harvest in Ivory Coast
Weaker demand in emerging markets Russia and Brazil
Where do we go from here?

8. INDUSTRY Outlook – DEMAND SIDE

9. Trends: Demand Outlook
Demand resurgence in traditional markets

10. Resurgence in Traditional Markets
Source: CCS Cocoa, 2017

11. Trends: Demand Outlook
Demand resurgence in traditional markets
Consumption picking up significantly in emerging markets
Russia
Turkey
Brazil
China and India

12. Significant pick up in Emerging Markets
Source: CCS Cocoa, 2017

13. Chocolate Sales Outlook (Growth 2014-2022)
Source: Euromonitor, 2017

14. Trends: Demand Outlook
Demand resurgence in traditional markets
Consumption picking up significantly in emerging markets
Russia
Turkey
Brazil
China and India
Overall positive outlook

15. INDUSTRY outlook – SUPPLY SIDE

16. Trends: Supply Outlook
Ivory Coast – expected revert to “normal” production
Ghana – production steady

17. Trends: Supply Outlook
Ivory Coast – expected revert to “normal” production
Ghana – production steady
Indonesia– continuous dramatic decline

18. Indonesia in dramatic decline
Indonesia Main Crop Trend
Source: CCS Cocoa, 2017

19. Trends: Supply Outlook
Ivory Coast – expected revert to “normal” production
Ghana – production steady
Indonesia– continuous dramatic decline
Minor Origins
Ecuador: bright spot
Not replicated in other minor origins

20. Minor Origins Ecuador Cocoa Production Brazil Cocoa Production
Nigeria Cocoa Production
Cameroon Cocoa Production
Source: CCS Cocoa, 2017

21. Trends: Supply Outlook
Ivory Coast – expected revert to “normal” production
Ghana – production steady
Indonesia– continuous dramatic decline
Minor Origins
Ecuador: bright spot
Not replicated in other minor origins
Lower prices reducing new planting

22. Conclusion Much brighter prospects in medium to long term Philippines
Building cacao industry resilience
Short term volatility
Increasing yield is key
Raising Philippine brand as high quality origin

23. 15,000 Our cacao farmers….. and counting…..
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