1. Optimization   for Sustainable Water Resources Management (OPTIMA)
Presentation of Jordan Case Study
Zarqa River Basin
to the
Third Management Board Meeting
May 18-19, 2006
Gumpoldskirchen, Austria

2. Project Team Name Specialty Gender Muhammad Shatanawi Water Resources
Male
Jawad al-Bakri
GIS and Land use
Maisa’a Shammout
Natural Resources
Female
Sawsan Naber
Irrigated Agriculture
Nedal al-Afayfah
GIS in Land and Water

3. Requirements and Constraints
Contribution to WP 01
Requirements and Constraints
FEEM
Level of Efforts by UJO 2 m/m
Activities:
Stakeholders were identified
Gender information were obtained
Source of information were identified
Data availability against requirements were defined
Data constrains were identified
Status:
D01 (D1.1 and D1.2) were submitted by FEEM

4. Socio-Economic frame work; objectives, criteria and indicators
Contribution to WP 02
Socio-Economic frame work; objectives, criteria and indicators
IRMCO
Level of Efforts by UJO 1 m/m
Activities:
Hydrological Map, Main Cities and Towns, Land Use of 2002, The location of the Basin in Jordan and some photos were sent to IRMCO for the Poster.
Challenges, water issues, gender issues and other related information were also sent
Status:
D02 were submitted by IRMCO

7. Analytical tools: simulation and optimization models
Contribution to WP 03
Analytical tools: simulation and optimization models
ESS
Level of Efforts by UJO 1 m/m
Activities:
Hydrological data were collected and used to validate the WRM.
Many problems were solved with the model using problem reporting.
Wastewater treatment node needs to be treated not like geometry node.
Status:
D03 were submitted by ESS

8. Techno-economic data compilation and analysis
Contribution to WP 04
Techno-economic data compilation and analysis
INTERGEO
Level of Efforts by UJO 1m/m
Activities:
The link to this WP has been opened
Needs time to understand and enter required data.
Many items were found missing; need updating regarding technologies used in UJO CS.
Status:
D04 (D4.1 and D4.2) are due in July 2006

9. Land use change: remote sensing and GIS data
Contribution to WP 05
Land use change: remote sensing and GIS data
NCRS
Level of Efforts by UJO 1 m/m
Activities:
GIS data for the followings were sent to NCRS: DEM, TIN, LU2002, area location, contours, wells, surface water bodies, administration boundaries, cities, towns and villages, main roads, streams, soils, rainfall and metrological stations, runoff gages, wastewater treatment plants.
Status:
D05 (D5.1) is due in July 2006

11. System integration and implementation
Contribution to WP 06
System integration and implementation
ESS
Level of Efforts by UJO 1 m/m
Activities:
Able to use the WRM from web server at ESS.
Use the forum, problem reporting, access to deliverable and other tools.
Status:
D06 (D6.1) is due in July 2006

12. Jordan Case study: Zarqa River Basin
Contribution to WP 10
Jordan Case study: Zarqa River Basin
UJO
Level of Efforts by UJO 30 m/m
Activities:
The basin was divided into 6 sub-basin considering topography, rainfall variation and urbanization.
Water supply for each sub-basin was obtained or determined in quantity, time series and location
Water Demand for each sub-basin was obtained or determined in time series and in quantity for each sector.

13. Jordan Case study: Zarqa River Basin
Contribution to WP 10
Jordan Case study: Zarqa River Basin
UJO
Activities:
Data on supply and demand for each node were entered and stored as time series.
WRM is now operational for the base-line scenario.
Land use/ cover change were assessed from till 2002 using Markov chain model.
Results of the base line scenario are obtained.
Status
D10.1: Jordan problem analysis due July 2006
D10.2: Optimization results due May 2007.

25. Case study: Zarqa River, Jordan
Contribution to WP 10
Case study: Zarqa River, Jordan
Milestone:
M3 PM18:
The case study have been implemented
WRM is operational for the baseline scenario
The results of the baseline scenario have been discussed with the stakeholders
M4 PM24:
Analysis of optimization scenario will start after the 3rd board meeting
Performance:
The baseline scenario has been defined based on compiling all data and operating all tools.

26. Case study: Zarqa River, Jordan
Contribution to WP 10
Case study: Zarqa River, Jordan
Impact Indicator:
The stakeholders expressed their satisfaction on the approach and results of the baseline scenario.
However, some constructive remarks have been raised and will be considered in the process of updating the scenario.
The stakeholder have suggested some guidelines to build the future scenarios to be incorporated in the optimization strategy.

27. Land Use Changes

28. Land use/cover
Visual interpretation of Landsat TM (1992,1998 and 2002) following CORINE scheme
GIS- analysis
Area of each LU/C
Transition matrices (probability of change)
Prediction of future Land use in the basin:
Using Markov chain
Based on the rate of change in the period

29. Land use/cover classification scheme
Definition
Class
Areas occupied by dwellings and buildings used by administrative/public utilities, including their connected areas (associated lands, approach road network, parking lots) (111,1)
Continuous Urban Fabrics
Artificial areas
 Areas occupied by dwellings and buildings, most of the land are covered by structures which occupy discontinuous but significant surfaces. Buildings, roads and artificially surfaced areas associated with vegetated areas and bare soil are also included in this class. (112,2)
Discontinuous Urban Fabrics
Areas with an open-pit extraction of construction material (sandpits, quarries). Spaces under construction development.  (131,3)
Mineral Extraction and Construction Sites
Rainfed wheat in the high rainfall areas and barley in the low rainfall areas.  (211,4)
Non-irrigated arable lands
Arable lands
Agricultural areas
Crops irrigated permanently or periodically, most of the crops that cannot be cultivated without an artificial water supply.  (212,5)
Permanently Irrigated lands
Areas of annual crops associated with permanent crops on the same parcel, annual crops and orchards. This class also included agro forestry areas in Jarash. (240,6) 
Heterogeneous agricultural areas
Areas of forests and woodlands used mainly for recreation.  (310,7)
Forests
Forests and semi-natural areas
Scree, cliffs, rock outcrops, exposed rocks and limestone. (332,8) 
Bare rock
Open spaces with little or no vegetation
Heavily grazed open shrub and herbaceous rangeland. (333,9)
Sparsely vegetated areas
King Talal Dam and Khirbat Assamra wastewater treatment plant. Natural or artificial stretches of water including Qa’a (mud field) and small earth dams were water is harvested.  (512,10).
Water bodies

30. Accuracy of mapping Accuracy Confusion class Mis-interpretation
Accurate interpretation
# of
samples
Class
93.3%
class 2 1 14 15
Continuous urban fabrics
100.0%  - 10
Discontinuous urban fabrics 4
Mineral extraction sites
85.7%
class 9 6 7
Non-irrigated arable lands
84.9%
class 4,6,6,8 and 9 5 28 33
Permanently irrigated lands
Heterogeneous agricultural areas
Forest
75.0%
class 5,9 and 9 3 9 12
Bare rocks
83.3%
class 8
Sparsely vegetated area
Water bodies

31. Land use map of 2002

32. Land use of 2002 9.9 urban 10.5 Irrigated 13.2 Agricultural 2.0 Forest%
Class
6.1
Continuous urban fabrics
2.1
Discontinuous urban fabrics
1.6
Mineral extraction sites
11.6
Non-irrigated arable lands
10.5
Permanently irrigated lands
Heterogeneous agricultural areas
2.0
Forest
35.1
Bare rocks
29.1
Sparsely vegetated area
0.2
Water bodies
4120.0
Total area
9.9
urban
10.5
Irrigated
13.2
Agricultural
2.0
Forest
64.1
open spaces
0.2
water

34. Probability matrix between different classes, period 1992-2002 (10 years period).
512
333
332
310
240
212
211
131
112
111
Code
0.07
0.02
0.03
0.00
0.05
0.21
0.19
1.00
0.01
0.04
0.76
0.36
0.09
0.10
0.11
0.39
0.06
0.59
2002
0.83
0.17
0.12
0.69
0.25
0.20
0.65
0.08
0.24
0.43

35. Predicted land use Predicted in 2022 Predicted in 2012 LU in 2002 11.1
11.1
8.6
6.1
Continuous urban fabrics
4.8
3.6
2.1
Discontinuous urban fabrics
2.0
1.6
Mineral extraction sites
11.2
11.6
Non-irrigated arable lands
9.9
10.3
10.5
Permanently irrigated lands
3.2
2.5
Heterogeneous agricultural areas
2.7
2.4
Forest
29.6
31.9
35.1
Bare rocks
25.2
26.8
29.1
Sparsely vegetated area
0.2
Water bodies

36. Summary of predicted land use
2022
2012
2002
18.0
14.2
9.9
urban
14.4
13.2
Agricultural (rainfed and mixed agr. areas)
10.3
10.5
Irrigated
54.9
58.7
64.1
Open spaces (non-cultivated)
2.7
2.4
2.0
Forest
0.2
Water bodies

37. Non irrigated arable land (211,4)
Permanently irrigated land (212,5)

38. Forest; al-Alouk forest (310,7)
Bare rock, open spaces (333,9)

39. wastewater treatment plant
Water bodies (512,10)
Water harvesting
In Qa’a Khana
Khirbat es-Samra
wastewater treatment plant

40. Structure of the Problem Analysis Report
Due in July, 2006
(Deliverable No 10.1)
Description of the case study
Water management issues
Stakeholder participation
Institutional arrangement
Water allocation among sector

41. Structure of the Problem Analysis Report
Due in July, 2005
(Deliverable No 10.1)
Building baseline scenario
identify and defining basin objects
Collecting input data for supply node
Verifying time series data
Incorporating inter basin transfer
Exporting data into the main server
Building the topology features of the WRM
Comparison of calculated results of the mass balance with that observed at control stations (nodes).

42. Structure of the Problem Analysis Report
Due in July, 2005
(Deliverable No 10.1)
7. Baseline evaluation and analysis:
direct and indirect cost
Cost benefit ratio
Constraints and instrument
Stakeholder view of the baseline scenario
Modification needed to baseline scenario

43. Structure of the Problem Analysis Report
Due in July, 2006
(Deliverable No 10.1)
8. Land use changes:
Land uses by sector
Evaluation of changes from
Prediction of changes for the next 15 years
Recommendation on land use
Next step
Future scenario
Optimization strategy
Water technologies

44. Evaluation post-optimal analysis
Contribution to WP 14
Evaluation post-optimal analysis
COR
Level of Efforts by UJO 1 m/m
Activities:
X Not yet
Status:
D14.1: Decision analysis report due May 2007
D14.2: Stakeholder involvement report due May 2007

45. Comparative analysis: generic lessons and best practice
Contribution to WP 15
Comparative analysis: generic lessons and best practice
ELARD
Level of Efforts by UJO 3 m/m
Activities:
X Not yet
Status:
D15.1: Case study comparative analysis due May 2007
D15.2: Best practices report due May 2007

46. Dissemination, networking and exploitation
Contribution to WP 16
Dissemination, networking and exploitation
IRMCO
Level of Efforts by UJO 2 m/m
Activities:
Data on stakeholder were sent
Maps and pictures were sent for poster production
A paper on “Water Management in Zarqa Basin” was presented in WATMED2 in Marrakech, Morocco, Nov., 2005.
The project has been announced under UNESCO chair web page within the University site.
The Project has been introduced to the stakeholder in the workshop on May 16, 2006.

47. Dissemination, networking and exploitation
Contribution to WP 16
Dissemination, networking and exploitation
IRMCO
Status:
D16.1: project website due June 2007
D16.2: Guidelines for local participation due June 2007
D16.3 Regional dissemination workshop due June 2007
D16.4 Dissemination report due June 2007

48. Stakeholders Workshop

49. AGENDA 09:00 – 09:15 Registration and Interaction 09:15 – 09:30
Welcome Session, workshop agenda
09:30 – 10:20
Oral Presentations
OPTIMA project and the Zarqa Basin case study, Shatanawi
Land use change model, al Bakri
The participative approach, corridoio.zero
Introduction to the Baseline Scenario, Shatanawi and Shammout
10:20 – 10:40
Coffee break
10:40 – 11:50
Working Session I (Plenary)
Sharing and understanding the baseline scenario
Planned actions and expected changes
11:50 – 12:10
12:10 – 13:20
Working session II (Parallel Groups)
Problems and issues
From problems to objectives
Actions and instruments
13:20 – 14:30
Working Session III (Plenary)
Introduction of the results
Sharing objectives and priorities
14:30 – 15:30
Lunch

50. Thank you