1. Data Highlight: 8th Grade Cohort
Julie Eklund
Interim Assistant Commissioner
Strategic Planning and Funding
Thank you Mr. Jenkins.
Ms. Polden has just outlined our ambitious plan for promoting 60x30TX to external stakeholders; we also have a lot of work ahead internally to further develop our understanding of the data around our new goals and targets. This presentation will, I hope, be the first in a series of data highlights that I will bring to share our work and its possible implications.

2. 8th grade cohort tracked for 11 years
Most cohort students who complete earn a bachelor’s degree; very few students earn certificates
Degree and award completion vary considerably by economic status
When controlling for economic status, race and ethnicity differences diminish, except for Asian students
Economically disadvantaged students who earn a bachelor’s degree are more likely to earn a certificate or associate along the way than their non-economically disadvantaged peers
CB has tracked cohorts of 8th graders for several years
The data I am sharing today highlights our 8th grade cohort. We’ve tracked cohorts of 8th graders since 1998 and it has helped us to understand and track improvements in our K-12 through higher education pipeline.
Today I will share some data that show more about, what many would say are surprisingly low certificate completion levels for cohort participants
The data also indicate considerable differences by economic status both in terms of student progress through the pipeline and, for those who do complete, the patterns of award completion 2

3. The CB tracks student progress and outcomes several ways
Some data is cohort-based; a defined group is tracked over time. Graduation rates are cohort-based outcomes
For our traditional graduation rate, we include first-time, full-time (FTFT) college students and follow them to see how many graduated in 4, 5, and 6 years
For example, 60.5% of the 2008 university FTFT cohort graduated within six years
We also report on other outcomes by cohort, such as persistence and transfer rates
Some data we refer to as snapshot – for example, fall enrollments in fall 2016.
Tracked over time is usually forward, although sometimes we track backwards, such as students who graduate in 2014 tracked back to add up their SCH.
61,514 at universities and 54,601 and XX at other 2-years for 120,000 FTIC vs. 64,000 enrollees of whom
172,555 enrolled in HE and 38% earned a degree or certificate.
We do a graduation and persistence rate.
59.2 % earned a bachelor’s degree. 3

4. Of 325,000 8th Graders in
100% started in the cohort (enrolled in grade 8)
94% enrolled in grade 9
69% graduated from high school
53% enrolled in higher education in Texas
20% earned degree or certificate by 2014
Here are some basics from our most recent cohort. Of those students who were in eighth grade in 2004, you can see that only twenty percent earned a degree or certificate. This is, by the way, up from a little under 18% for the 1998 cohort.
Note that of those 53% who enroll (about XXX,XXX students) about 18,000 were not Texas public high school graduates. 4

5. Of the 20% who received a postsecondary award*
15% earned a bachelor’s degree or higher
4% earned an associate degree
1% earned a certificate
*Highest degree earned
In terms of degree and award completion, we highlighted these statewide breakouts in our most recent Texas Higher Education Almanac. As you can see, the certificate completion rate is quite low. Of our 100 percent who start in 8th grade, only 1 percent have earned a certificate. 5

6. Data request and 60x30TX plan inspired “deeper dive” into the 8th grade cohort data
Data inquiry led to breakouts by
Type of award by economic status, race/ethnicity and region
Targets Under Completion Goal include
Increasing completions for economically disadvantaged students (Pell recipients)
Increasing the percent of public high school graduates who enroll immediately in higher education
A recent data inquiry and our new focus on the targets and goals in the new plan inspired a deeper dive.
This inquiry led to breakouts of type of award in our data so that we can now see those award patterns by economic status, race and ethnicity, and region
Spending the time to do these new breakouts was important for the plan, as well, because we have a target to increase completions for economically disadvantaged students and one to increase the percent of students who enroll in higher education soon after high school graduation. 6

7. Economically disadvantaged students are much less likely to complete
Count in Grade 8
Graduated from HS
Enrolled in college
Earned a degree or certificate
Total
324,000 8th graders
69%
53%
20%
Econ. Dis.
159,000 8th graders
60%
40%
10%
Non-Econ. Dis.
165,000 8th graders
79%
66%
30%
So first, taking a look at our 8th grade cohort in 2004, you can see that the number of economically disadvantaged students, defined s those receiving free and reduced lunch, is almost the same as are non-disadvantaged students.
Only 10 percent of the disadvantaged students, as shown of the bottom, complete a degree or certificate within 6 years of high school graduation 7

8. Economic status matters for type of award, too
Of all economically disadvantaged 8th graders
1% earned a certificate
3% earned an associate degree
6% earned a bachelor’s degree
Of non-disadvantaged 8th graders
2% earned a certificate
4% earned an associate degree
24% earned a bachelor’s degree
In looking at our new data by type of degree, we see that that patterns differ by economic status.
Shown graphically, 8

9. Certificate and associate completion is similar for econ
Certificate and associate completion is similar for econ. disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged students*
One can see that the certificate and associate award completion rates for these two groups are fairly similar. The difference is in the bachelors degree completion levels 9
*Highest degree earned

10. Econ. disadvantaged students may be more likely to “build-up” to a bachelor’s degree
Percent of 8th grade cohort bachelor’s degree recipients who also completed a certificate and/or associate degree
Econ Dis
Non-Econ Dis
16% 7%
This led us to look at students earning multiple degrees by economic status. Up to now, we have shown the data for the highest degree completed, students in the cohort who are economically disadvantaged who earn a bachelor’s degree or higher in this time frame are more likely to earn a degree or certificate on the way. This difference in the completion pathways could help us shape policies that will help more economically disadvantaged students complete. We’ll have to look into whether this is an economic choice, etc.
1.7 (disadvantaged) and 2.2 (advantaged) if you look at all certificate completions not just certificate only.
Associate degree
14%
13% 10

11. Students complete at similar rates when shown by economic status and race/ethnicity/gender
For the State:
For all major ethnic groups, economically disadvantaged male and female students in the cohort complete a degree or certificate at similar rates
Exception is Asian students who complete all degrees at much higher rates
For certificates only, Hispanic and white males are similar at 1.5% and 1.6% earning that credential (respectively)
So we also have a target in the plan to increase male completion and African American and Hispanic completion
Bullet one – For economically disadvanted students, 8 percent white and Hispanic males, 6 percent AA males and 25 percent other males earn a certificate or degree in the cohort. Females are at 11 AA, 12 white, 13 Hispanic and 35 percent “other.
For certificates only, the completion rate for economically disadvantaged white and Hispanic males is almost the same. It is slightly lower for African Americans 11

12. Statewide data on awards by age informs 8th grade cohort results
FY 2014 undergraduate degree completion by age
Finally, as very often happens when we are in data detective mode, looking at all of this data led to some questions that could not be answered with the 8th grade cohort data alone.
The one that many of us looking at this data had relates to the low certificate completion levels for this cohort. So we decided to look at see what our certificate completion rate looks like for all students by age.
The average age for certificates is 31, for associates is 28, and for 26 12

13. Some take-aways
8th grade cohort students who do complete a postsecondary award are most likely to earn a bachelor’s degree; younger degree earners will have more time to build careers and reach financial goals
Economically disadvantaged students are more likely to build on other degrees; certificates and associates don’t have to be an end point
We need a more developed understanding of the leaks in the pipeline and how to help more students succeed
There is much room for growth in certificate and associate completion
Future 8th grade cohort results could reflect changes to high school graduation options through increased completion rates or changes in award patterns
So, in conclusion, there is much food for thought in this data and it is important to think about what it might mean for policy and practice and for reaching our state goals 13

14. 8th Grade Cohort
Questions?