1. Rainer Froese, Kathleen Kesner-Reyes and Cristina Garilao
Changes in
Species Composition
in the Oceans
Rainer Froese, Kathleen Kesner-Reyes and Cristina Garilao

2. What is AquaMaps?
A collection of standardized digital distribution maps for 25,000 aquatic species
Preliminary maps are computer-generated based on niche modelling of environmental suitability given the known preferences of a species
Experts review, edit and approve maps (so far about 2,000)
If species maintain their environmental preferences, then future distributions can be predicted
Marine AquaMaps: Ready et al., Ecological Modelling, (2010)

3. Environmental predictors:
depth
sea temperature
salinity
primary production
ice concentration
distance to land

4. How does AquaMaps work?

5. Step 1: Getting Model Input Data
depth range
habitat (demersal, pelagic, oceanic, ..)
bounding box coordinates
FAO areas
occurrence points
Photo by K. Nilsson
Atlantic cod
Gadus morhua Linnaeus, 1758
Sources:
FishBase – fishbase.org (fishes)
SeaLifeBase – sealifebase.org (nonfishes)
GBIF – gbif.org (geo-referenced occurrence data)
Online biodiversity information systems are primary sources of key minimum input data.

6. Bounding Box N/S/W/E extent of native range
FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department (FI), 2017
N/S/W/E extent of native range
Derived from published maps or description of distribution
Limits accepted points to native range

7. FAO Areas UN Fishery statistical areas status = native or endemic
In the absence of a bounding box, we use the limits of the FAO areas where a species is reported as native or endemic, as a proxy for bounding box.
UN Fishery statistical areas
status = native or endemic
proxy for bounding box

8. Step 2: Selecting “Good Point Data”
Bounding box or FAO area limits serve as independent verification of the validity of occurrence records.

9. Step 3: Calculating Environmental Tolerances
Global grid of 259,200 half degree cells
Good cells are used to extract the range and frequency of environmental parameters within the species’ native range.

10. Step 3: Calculating Environmental Tolerances (cont’d)
Environmental envelope
Min = 25th percentile * interquartile or absolute minimum in extracted data (whichever is lesser)
Max = 75th percentile * interquartile or absolute maximum in extracted data (whichever is greater)
PrefMin = 10th percentile of observed variation in an environmental parameter
PrefMax = 90th percentile of observed variation in an environmental parameter
Surface values for species with min depth ≤ 200m
Bottom values for species with min depth > 200m
2050/2100 modeled sea temperature, salinity and ice concentration (IPCC SRES A2 scenario)
The environmental envelopes describe tolerances of a species with respect to each environmental parameter.

11. Step 4: Estimating Probability of Occurrence
Predictor
Preferred
min
max
Min
Max
PMax
Relative probability of occurrence
Pc = Pbathymetryc x Ptemperaturec x Psalinityc x Pprimary productionc x Pice concentrationc x Pland distancec
The overall probability of species occurrence in a given half-degree cell is product of the probabilities of each individual environmental parameter.

12. Step 5: Mapping Probability of Occurrence
Present native range
All suitable habitat

13. Step 5: Mapping Probability of Occurrence in Year 2050
2100
A2 emissions scenario assumes:
independently operating, self-reliant nations
continuously increasing population
regionally oriented economic development
IPCC A2 emissions scenario
AquaMaps assumes species’ environmental preferences remains the same
Predicted range by 2050

14. Using AquaMaps to show future changes in species composition

15. Overall predicted change in 2050, based on the IPCC scenario A2 and preliminary environmental preferences of 25,000 species (Jaccard distance).
Color coding follows a power scale, with yellow indicating about 10% change, and dark red indicating % change. Changes south of Greenland, in the eastern Mediterranean, the center of the Oceans, and the Antarctic are mostly due to loss of species. Changes in the central Mediterranean and the Arctic are mainly due to new species. Blue areas indicate lack of data. Vertical bands in the eastern Pacific are artefacts from preliminary species maps that will be corrected. Some areas (e.g. Sea of Okhotsk) need to be examined to understand unexpected strong change in species.

16. Predicted loss in 2050, based on the IPCC scenario A2 and preliminary environmental preferences of 25,000 species.
Color coding follows a power scale, with yellow indicating about 10% change, and dark red indicating % change.

17. Predicted gains in 2050, based on the IPCC scenario A2 and preliminary environmental preferences of 25,000 species.
Color coding follows a power scale, with yellow indicating about 10% change, and dark red indicating % change.

18. Work Required Before Publication
Find, review and fix „problematic“ species maps
Use most likely IPCC scenario with most recent data for 2050 prediction of environmental conditions
Rerun AquaMaps to create current and 2050 maps for 25,000 species
Publish

19. Rainer Froese, Kathleen Kesner-Reyes and Cristina Garilao
Thanks
Rainer Froese, Kathleen Kesner-Reyes and Cristina Garilao