1. Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads
TII Roadshow 2017
Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads
Eoin Gillard Head of Strategic & Transport Planning
Transport Infrastructure Ireland
Transport Planning Society
22nd November 2017

2. Introduction

3. Strategic & Transport Planning Section
What we do
Strategic & Transport Planning Section
Project Appraisal Guidance
Audit of National Roads Projects
Appraisal of Light Rail projects
National Transport Model

4. TII Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads
Objective:
To ensure consistent appraisal of all TII projects and compliance with DTTAS and DPER requirements
What is PAG?
‘How to’ guidelines
Detailed guidance on:
Transport modelling
Economic appraisal
MCA
Standard parameters for model inputs

5. TII Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads

6. Structure of PAG Unit Topics discussed Detailed Info 1.0 Introduction
2.0
Appraisal Deliverables
Project Appraisal Plan
3.0
Project Brief
PB Template
4.0
Consideration of Alternatives
5.0
Transport Modelling
Construction of Models
Data Collection
Forecasting
Sample TM Report
6.0
CBA
Scheme Costs
TUBA & COBALT
Sample CBA
Service Areas
Wider Impacts
Reliability & Quality
National Parameter Values
7.0
Multi-Criteria Analysis
MCA Guidance
PABS Template
8.0
Business Case
BC Template & Sample
9.0
Post Project Review
12.0
Minor Projects (€5m-€20m)
Simple Appraisal Tool
13.0
Walking & Cycling Facilities
14.0
Minor Projects(€0.5m-€5m)
Minor Project PABS Template
16.0
Data Analysis Techniques
Estimating AADT
Expansion Factors for Short Period Counts

7. Minor Projects (€5m - €20m)

8. Structure of PAG Unit Topics discussed Detailed Info 1.0 Introduction
2.0
Appraisal Deliverables
Project Appraisal Plan
3.0
Project Brief
PB Template
4.0
Consideration of Alternatives
5.0
Transport Modelling
Construction of Models
Data Collection
Forecasting
Sample TM Report
6.0
CBA
Scheme Costs
TUBA & COBALT
Sample CBA
Service Areas
Wider Impacts
Reliability & Quality
National Parameter Values
7.0
Multi-Criteria Analysis
MCA Guidance
PABS Template
8.0
Business Case
BC Template & Sample
9.0
Post Project Review
12.0
Minor Projects (€5m-€20m)
Simple Appraisal Tool
13.0
Walking & Cycling Facilities
14.0
Minor Projects(€0.5m-€5m)
Minor Project PABS Template
16.0
Data Analysis Techniques
Estimating AADT
Expansion Factors for Short Period Counts

9. Minor Projects (€0.5m - €5m) – Unit 14.0

10. Common Issues

11. Common Issues in Appraisals / Business Cases
Problem Definition
Objective Setting
Options and Alternatives
Multi-criteria analysis
Lack of consideration outside of Economic Evaluation

12. Challenges

13. Value of Time Dominates
Average Breakdown of Road Scheme Benefits
Time Savings are key
High volume routes => More Benefits
Potential Issues for scheme selection
AADT
Time Saving per user (hrs)
Total Time saving (hrs/day)
VoT
Total Benefit (€/day)
Annual Benefit (€)
M50
160,000
0.0167
2667 €
€ ,626.67
€ 11,543,733.33 M4
27000
450
€ ,337.00
€ 1,948,005.00 N5
5,600 93
€ ,106.93
€ ,030.67

14. Discount Rates – International Comparison
What is the value of €1M in 30 years?
Country
Discount Rate
Value
World Bank
12.0%
€37,383
New Zealand
8.0%
€107,328
Australia
7.0%
€140,563
USA
Ireland
5.0%
€242,946
Sweden
3.5%
€368,748 UK
Germany
3.0%
€424,346
Netherlands
2.5%
€488,661

15. Discount Rates – Alternative for Road Schemes?
TII research on the use of hyperbolic discounting as transport projects have a longer lifecycle
 M4/M6 Worked Example
Exponential 30 years
Exponential 60 years
Hyperbolic 60 years
Combined 60 years
PV Benefits
1,357
2,846
2,959
3,576
PV of Capital Costs
1,490
NPV
-133
1,356
1,469
2,086
BCR
0.91
1.91
1.99
2.40

16. Future Considerations
How to justify low volume road schemes in complex environments
Appraisal of technology in transport – is VoT the answer?
Cross cutting effects – transport influenced by or enabling other policies
Is transport appraisal a victim of its own success?

17. Thank You