1. Forecasting and Applications in Hydrology
Inf 2.3
Forecasting and Applications in Hydrology
Paul Pilon
Chief Hydrological Forecasting and Water Resources Division

2. Overview Flood Forecasting Initiative (FFI)
Flash Flood Guidance System (FFGS)
Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP)
Associated Programme on Flood Management (APFM)
Links to Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)

3. WMO Flood Forecasting Initiative (FFI)
Resolution 21 (Cg-XV) endorsed the WMO Flood Forecasting Initiative
enhance cooperation between National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for improving flood forecasting.
Resolution 15 (Cg-XVI)
Scope of the FFI
Created its Advisory Group (FFI-AG)
Has met twice

4. Flood Forecasting Initiative – Advisory Group
Undertook comprehensive review of the FFI Strategy and Action Plan and its Supplement
need to strengthen the focus on forecasting, short to medium range
Viewed SAP as being overwhelming and confusing
Agreed on 6 proposed actions
Develop a generic list of requirements/best practices of flood forecasting taking into account high priority actions;
Develop flood forecasting system capabilities;
Use the IFM HelpDesk to promote the implementation strategy
Develop a new implementation strategy based on projects, training programmes, promotion…

5. Flash Flood Guidance System (FFGS)
CG-XV endorsed its implementation
Concept developed jointly with CBS
In collaboration with US NWS, USAID/OFDA, HRC
9 FFGS Projects having different levels of completion
Recent meeting in South America, with interest to implement it therein
Growing interest to increase its functionality

6. FFGS – New Functionality (Continued)
The enhancement outlined include:
Urban flash flood forecasting;
Riverine discharge forecasting;
Landslide susceptibility mapping;
Multiple mesoscale model ingestion;
Satellite inundation mapping and surface soil moisture observations to correct FFFGS soil water.

7. Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP)
Joint activity with JCOMM
Multi-hazard early warning system for coastal areas
Four sub-projects underway
Bangladesh, Dominican Republic, Fiji and Indonesia
EC-68 tasked the FFI-AG to ensure that all major demonstration projects (including CIFDP) reflect best practices for effective and sustainable flood forecasting
Mr Yuri Simonov, member of the Advisory Working Group, has been appointed co-chair of the Project Steering Committee (PSC) that oversees the CIFDP
Mr  Graeme Smart, OPACHE member, has also been appointed to the PSC

8. WMO/GWP Associated Programme on Flood Management (APFM)
Continued the development of several publications
Several training events
Very active HelpDesk
Considered an exemplory model
GWP seconded expert for APFM and IDMP
Independent Peer Review of APFM

9. APFM Peer Review Directed by the APFM Management Committee (MC)
large focus on assessing performance and building a sustainable future
17 major findings
“The APFM was the best kept secret”
Regardless of Website, training, advocacy
Underutilized for reducing flood losses
MC adopted an approach that would advance the implementation of End-to-End Early Warning Systems for Flood Forecasting and broader water management
through the IFM HelpDesk
linked to the Community of Practice on EWS for Flood Forecasting that will be presented upon and discussed tomorrow
Consistent with the guidance of the FFI-AG

10. Links to Disaster Risk Reduction
Expert Forum “Lessons Learned about Lessons Learned”
Adoption of the Antalya Statement, with 6 calls-to-action
“Early Warning Systems (EWSs) developers and operators are called to pay more attention to the systems’ weaker links”.
As part of the WMO Roadmap for DRR
Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (MHEWSs)
Promoting the International Network for MHEWSs (IN-MHEWS)
Supporting the International Conference on MHEWSs (IC-MHEWS)), from May 2017, in Cancun, Mexico.

11. DRR
Resolution 9 (CG-17)
Develop identifiers for cataloguing weather, water, and climate extreme events
Promote interoperability among datasets and facilitate Members’ efforts to assess risk and track losses and damages
Useful for for the Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses

12. Thank you
Merci