1. Minority Government Has the SNP made it work?
Learning Intentions: To examine whether a minority Government can deliver its flagship policies.
Has the SNP made it work?

2. The Maths The SNP, with 47 MSPs, is the majority party.
But it is in the minority if all the other parties vote against it!
The Government has had to pass its legislation on an “issue by issue” basis or “by the strength of argument, rather than the strength of numbers”
The SNP, with 47 MSPs is the is the majority party. But it is in the minority within the parliament. On paper it faces 82 MSPs in opposition.
The SNP can forget Labour’s 46 MSPs supporting them on most issues.
But the Conservatives, Lib Dems, Green and Independent MSPs can all be won over on an issue by issue basis.
The SNP has successfully passed its budgets. It had to make compromises with the the other parties . It has been Labour who has struggled most with the new minority politics, failing to have a coherent strategy for opposition.

3. First Minister in control of chamber
Alex Salmond has, to date, commanded the Scottish Parliament at FMQ.
He has seen off two Scottish Labour leaders and one Liberal Democrat.
This has raised the morale of the minority Government and undermined the opposition.
The First Minister is a superb debater in the Parliament. He has, quite simply, ran rings round the opposition. First Jack McConnell resigned as Scottish Labour leader in the Scottish Parliament, than Wendy Alexander. In July 2008 Nicol Stephen resigned as Lib Dem leader. One would think it was the Opposition who were in the minority, not the Government!
First Minister’s Questions

4. Salmond’s step by step approach
Alex Salmond’s approach to independence is to promote the Scottish identity within the Scottish public (e.g. via The Homecoming) and increase the powers of the Scottish Parliament “step by step”.
The SNP’s aim is to change the Scottish public’s “fear” of independence. It seeks to increase the national consciousness of the public through, for example, promoting Scottish culture. The Homecoming campaign of 2009 was a major part of this “softening up” strategy. So was the name change from Scottish executive to Scottish Government. While the SNP did not participate in the Calman Commission, as Calman would not consider independence, Alex Salmond will welcome all increases in the Scottish Parliament’s powers as further steps towards full independence. The first four years of the SNP’s government of Scotland was as much about proving the party’s competence to govern, at the same time as nudging the Scottish public’s opinions towards giving the Scottish Parliament more powers….. towards ultimate independence.

5. Quality not Quantity in Ministerial team
The SNP has opted for a smaller ministerial team than previous administrations;
Cabinet Secretary for Justice Kenny MacAskill
Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Sustainable Growth John Swinney
Cabinet Secretary for Health & Wellbeing Nicola Sturgeon
First Minister Alex Salmond
Cabinet Secretary for Education & Lifelong Learning Mike Russell
Cabinet Secretary for Rural Affairs & the Environment Richard Lochhead
The Cabinet are (l to r): Cabinet Secretary for Justice Kenny MacAskill, Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Sustainable Growth John Swinney, Cabinet Secretary for Health & Wellbeing Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister Alex Salmond Cabinet Secretary for Education & Lifelong Learning Mike Russell, Cabinet Secretary for Rural Affairs & the Environment Richard Lochhead.
Scottish Cabinet meetings around the country

6. Early defeat: 2007, Edinburgh Trams
The scheme was voted through by 81 votes to 47 after parties joined forces against the SNP.
The Government would have stopped the construction and spent the funds on improvements to dangerous roads e.g. A9 to Inverness.
And we still don’t have the trams!
Edinburgh Trams
The scheme was voted through by 81 votes to 47 after parties joined forces against the SNP.
The Government would have stopped the construction and spent the funds on improvements to dangerous roads e.g. A9 to Inverness.
Edinburgh Trams. Value for Money?

7. But legislation is not needed for everything
The SNP Government does not need legislation to pass all of its policies.
First Minister Alex Salmond can use his Executive powers to introduce new policies e.g. the phased abolition of prescription charges.
The SNP Government does not need legislation for all its policies. E.g. the phased abolition of prescription charges. By 2011 all prescription fees in Scotland will be free. A popular, headline grabbing move, especially as there are exemptions and discounts for many.
Phased abolition of prescription charges

8. Achievement : Abolition of Bridge Tolls
Tolls have been abolished on all of Scotland’s road bridges.
The SNP Government is trying to raise funds for a replacement Forth Road Bridge.
In the new era of budget cuts, would tolls funds have come in useful?
The SNP has made some very popular (populist?) changes. E.g. the ending of road tolls on Scotland’s bridges.

9. Achievement: Abolition of Graduate Tax
In 2008, the SNP Government abolished the Graduate Endowment, saving graduates paying the £2,289 tax.
The bill was supported by the SNP, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, Margo MacDonald and one Labour MSP, Elaine Smith.
The Opposition argued that the £17 million cost could have been put to better use.
There is a speculation that a new Graduate Tax could be on the agenda……
The abolition of graduate fees was a popular move, but the promised “abolition” of student debt contained in the 2007 SNP manifesto won’t happen.

10. Balanced by failure to cancel student debts
“We have to recognise that there are a number of restrictions, outside this Government’s control, which may prevent us fully delivering on all of our commitments.” (then) Cabinet Secretary for Education & Lifelong Learning Fiona Hyslop
She said:
In the run up to the 2007 election, the SNP had a three-tiered manifesto promise to tackle student debt.
Firstly, they committed themselves to abolishing the graduate endowment, which has been achieved.
However, the other two tiers, which were both more ambitious and costly, have been significantly watered down. 
In addition to the replacement of student loans with grants, the SNP initially pledged to service existing graduate debt. 
In November 2007, this policy was among the first to be dropped as the new administration became starkly aware that it could not afford to keep its promises.
Lastly, grants are now to be means-tested, rather than available to all students as initially promised.

11. The Concordat
The Concordat agreed between the SNP Scottish Government and COSLA in 2007 is based upon:
Reducing “ring fencing” of projects by the Scottish Government
Freezing Council Tax increases
Establishing Single Outcome Agreements (SOAs)
Some local authority leaders feel that they have been given insufficient funds to meet Concordat commitments on class sizes and free school meals for P1-P3
The concordat between the SNP Scottish Government and COSLA was agreed in 2007.
It agreed to freeze Council tax increases for three years, allow local authorities more control over how they spend their money (reducing “ring fencing” and introduce Single Outcome Agreements (SOAs) in which the Scottish Government and local authorities would work together to meet the 15 national outcomes related to services.
The concordat has been criticised by Scottish Labour as a con, despite the fact that it was a Labour Councillor, Pat Watters, who negotiated the deal on behalf of COSLA, with John Swinney to fund key Scottish Government policies such as free schools meals for P1-P3 and the lowering of class sizes. With council tax frozen, many local authorities are having to cutback on services in order to protect Scottish Government policies. The result is that local authorities are being blamed for cutting services, while the national Government appears to be escaping the wrath of tax payers.

12. The Council Tax Stays!
The SNP’s proposed Local Income Tax has been abandoned.
The opposition parties refused to support it.
It’s back to the drawing board.
In March 2009, John Swinney abandoned the Government’s plans to scrap the council tax in favour of a local income tax, a key manifesto promise.
The UK Labour government said that existing Council Tax benefits would not be paid for the new tax, leaving a shortfall in revenue for the Government’s planned tax.
Scottish Labour favours a property tax as does the Conservatives.
The Lib Dems favour a local tax for each of the 32 local authorities.
The SNP’s local income tax wasn’t really a local income tax as everyone in Scotland would have paid another 3p in the £ no matter where in Scotland they lived.
Its back to the drawing board for local government finance. But, the council tax freeze remains as part of the Concordat.
In the light of budget cuts putting further pressure on local authorities, will COSLA continue to support the Concordat?

13. Parliamentary Opposition
Scotland’s three main Opposition parties are opposed to independence and also to having a referendum on independence.
Labour has 46 MSPs, the Conservatives have 17 and the Liberal Democrats 16.
This means that the SNP’s Referendum Bill can be easily outvoted unless one of the parties can be won over.
The SNP has to find a Scottish parliamentary majority to hold a referendum on Scottish independence. Scottish Labour, under Wendy Alexander’s leadership famously said “bring it on” when asked about a referendum. Labour under Iain Gray is now against a referendum and so are the other main Scottish parties. The SNP will have to try and come up with a referendum proposal that can win the support of the one of these parties, perhaps via the wording of the referendum (making independence seem more negative) offering a federal option (which the Lib Dems would like) or promising to drop future referendum plans for a generation should the independence option fail (which may win over Labour or the Conservatives).

14. Failure of Key Policies
The maximum class size of 18 in P1-P3 is now an “aim”, rather than a “pledge”.
The Scottish Futures Trust has been criticised as little different from PPP.
The Alcohol Bill, is in danger after Opposition parties defeated plans for minimum pricing.
While the SNP Government has been very successful and popular with some policies, ironically, it has been its big, “flagship” policies which the party has run into trouble with.
Scottish local authorities are finding it difficult to fund the drop in class sizes and there has been speculation that the Scottish Government and COSLA have more or less abandoned its full scale implementation.
In March 2009, Finance Minister John Swinney abandoned plans to abolish the Council tax claiming that, given the parliamentary opposition to it, his bill would have been a waste of time. Perhaps, but who knows? Perhaps some compromise may have won over the Liberal Democrats?
Lastly, the Scottish Futures Trust was eventually unveiled in April It was intended to be a replacement to Public Private Partnerships (PPS) in building and maintaining large public assets. It was been criticised by both business and opposition parties as being little different from PPP.

15. Opinion Polls
The Scottish public’s mood towards independence is difficult to measure.
Opinion poll answers depend on the wording of the question!
There has been no clear majority for independence….yet
It is difficult to accurately assess Scottish public opinion on independence because of the often widely varying results of the polls. Poll results often differ wildly depending on the wording of the question, with the terms such as "break up" and "separation" often provoking a negative response.
For example, an opinion poll published by the The Scotsman in November 2006 revealed that a "Majority of Scots now favour independence". However, a poll conducted by Channel 4 only two months later reported that "The figure in support of Scottish independence had seemingly dropped".
In a poll in 2007 commissioned by The Scotsman newspaper it said Scottish independence was at a 10 year low with only 21% of people in support for it.
When polls give three options, including an option for greater devolution or a new federal settlement, but stopping short of independence, support for independence significantly declines. In a poll by The Times, published in April 2007, given a choice between independence, the status quo, or greater powers for the Scottish Parliament within the United Kingdom, the last option had majority support.
Polls show a consistent support for a referendum, including amongst those who support the continuation of the union. Most opinion polls performed have a figure of in-principle support for a referendum around 70–75%.
However, the bad news for the SNP is that the credit crunch and the recession have lowered public support for independence. In March 2009, the Sunday Times published the results of a YouGov survey on Scottish support for independence. Support for a referendum in principle was found to have fallen to 57% of respondents, with 53% of respondents stating they would vote against independence and 33% stating they would support independence.