1. Ch 9 Campaigning Hmmmmm……
Is the job of U.S. President the most demanding job in the world – 8 years later….
Hmmmmm……

2. American Presidential Campaigns
Long and grueling – many candidates run for nearly 2 years (average campaign globally is 2 months – either by law or practice). Always campaigning – running scared
Expensive: Both Romney and Obama raised and spent over $1 Billion
Unbelievable scrutiny into your private life
Presidential candidates are risk takers and self confident

3. Learning Target 9.1
Evaluate the fairness of the presidential primary and caucus system.
Students can explain how primaries and caucuses are different from one another and how each selects the winner during the nomination portion of the election.

4. Two types of campaigns
For the parties nomination: Nomination campaigns
Between the two parties: Election campaigns
Each campaign is costly. Fortune magazine estimates that running in just the first 4 primaries and caucuses will run each candidate between 40 and 60 million dollars

5. Deciding to Run Risk takers Background – informal qualifications
Willing to put in the effort
Able to raise the money
Electable
What about candidates that have little chance?

6. As we have seen
Anybody can run

7. But to win the nomination game

8. You are looking to win:
The nomination: or the party’s official endorsement of a candidate for office
By manipulating money, momentum and media – aka – your campaign strategy.

9. We didn’t always select the candidate’s this way
Parties sent delegates to the convention – these delegates were the party elite (the party bosses)
The delegates nominated and voted until they agreed on who they would support
What did we do??? We waited…until they decided who would run. Soooooo
Could Trump or Carson or Sanders have run then?

10. So why the change?
In 1968 People showed up at the democratic convention
People who weren’t the party elite
What people?
Young
Women
Blacks

11. Party Platform – 1968 Chicago Fight Vietnam War
Unruly behavior in and outside the convention hall

12. McGovern-Fraser Commission
We must find a new way to include the voices we left out.
The commission said Party Leaders could not pick who went to the convention – the people had to pick
That way – it wouldn’t be just the elite party people (read “old white guys”) casting votes at the convention.

13. How does that work? I mean – I want to go and vote at the convention – but everyone can’t just go – that would be chaos.
Every state had to figure out who they would send and how the delegates would be picked.
Easiest thing to do – have a primary.
Another possibility – have a caucus.

14. Time for a Candy Caucus And then a Candy Primary
Go in the hall and wait till I call you back in….

15. Still though – how does that work?
There were 3 candidates running for the Dems – we have a primary and you vote for one of them. In MI the results are:
Clinton gets 41%
Sanders gets 51%
That other guy gets 8%
Clinton gets 41% of the delegates that are obligated to vote for her at the convention
Sanders gets 51% and O’Malley gets none because you have to get at least 15% to get any

16. What about the Republicans
Because STATES run elections – when the Dems changed it up – the Republicans pretty much had to change as well because we couldn’t have 2 sets of rules
Republicans have different rules in different states regarding proportional/winner take all representation but recently ruled that no contest prior to April could be winner take all.

17. So then what the heck is a Superdelegate?
About 14 – 15% of all the delegates going to the Democratic Convention are delegates that have a powerful position in politics already like governors, senators and members of the HOR.
About 8% of the Republican delegates are superdelegates.
They are “unpledged” and can vote for whomever they like. In a tight race they could decide the nominee.

18. The invisible primary Who is winning supporters
Money
Endorsements
Who is making gaffes they cannot recover from?

19. Nominating a Presidential Candidate A Race for the majority of delegates to the national convention
Process controlled mostly by party rules
For primaries – some state laws have an impact
Presidential caucus
Presidential primary

20. Presidential Caucus States
Iowa 1st
Nevada next
Lower participation (under 15%)
Party run
No secret ballot

21. Presidential Primary States
New Hampshire is 1st
South Carolina is next

22. Frontloading
Frontloading
Super Tuesday

23. Getting the big MO Momentum means money
Getting more of it than your opponent
Debate performance can give you momentum
The convention tends to bump your momentum
Bad press can turn your momentum around the other direction

24. Evaluating our presidential nomination process –– What are the problem areas?
Disproportionate attention goes to the early caucuses and primaries
Prominent politicians find it difficult to take time out from their duties to run
Money plays too big a role in the caucuses and primaries
Participation in primaries and caucuses is low and unrepresentative
The system gives too much power to the media

25. National Convention Mania
Coverage of conventions has gone down since primaries/caucuses now pre-determine who the candidates will be. But back in the day….

27. Key Note Address – Obama 2004 sets up his run for the presidency
RNC in 2016 – NO KEYNOTE – because Republicans were not big fans of The Donald
DNC – Elizabeth Warren

28. Party Platform: The statement of the goals and policies for the next 4 years
written before convention
If 20% of convention disagree – plank can be replaced
Don’t want disagreements on TV
Work it out behind the scenes

29. Orchestrated Free Publicity
Results are foregone

30. Learning Target 9.2 Describe campaign methods and strategies
Students can explain what the most important campaign strategies are and how candidates use them.

31. 3rd hour (28) 16 Kit Kat 26 Twix 10 Reese’s 1 M & M
To Hershey Convention To Mars Convention
1st hour (21) 14 Reese’s M & M
7 Kit Kat Twix
1 Skittles
2nd hour (27) 13 Kit Kat 27 Twix
13 Nestle’s Crunch
1 Reese’s
3rd hour (28) 16 Kit Kat 26 Twix Reese’s 1 M & M
2 Twizzlers 1 Skittle
4th hour (24) 16 Reese’s 12 Skittle
7 Kit Kat 9 Twix
1 Twizzler 3 M & M
Harteland (26) 18 Kit Kat 16 M & M
8 Reese’s 10 Twix
Caucus (18) 9 Kit Kat 11 Twix
9 Reese’s 7 M & M
Total (144) 70 Kit Kat 93 Twix
58 Reese’s 37 M & M
13 Nestle’s Crunch 14 Skittles
3 Twizzlers

32. Could superdelegates change the outcome of our candy election?
To Hershey Convention To Mars Convention
1st hour (21) 14 Reese’s M & M
7 Kit Kat Twix
1 Skittles
2nd hour (27) 13 Kit Kat 27 Twix
13 Nestle’s Crunch
1 Reese’s
3rd hour (28) 16 Kit Kat 26 Twix Reese’s 1 M & M
2 Twizzlers 1 Skittle
4th hour (24) 16 Reese’s 12 Skittle
7 Kit Kat 9 Twix
1 Twizzler 3 M & M
Harteland (26) 18 Kit Kat 16 M & M
8 Reese’s 10 Twix
Caucus (18) 9 Kit Kat 11 Twix
9 Reese’s 7 M & M
Total (144) 70 Kit Kat 93 Twix
58 Reese’s 37 M & M
13 Nestle’s Crunch 14 Skittles
3 Twizzlers
Could superdelegates change the outcome of our candy election?
(21 SD)

33. Modern High Tech Media Driven Campaigns
TV is #1 for campaigns – mass media campaigns cost big bucks – 50% of presidential campaign budget GOTV
2012 – 1 million ads - $1,000 per undecided voter
Any value to ads? They are the #1 source for learning about the candidate’s stance on issues
TV news focus is more on polling – the horse race

34. Use of the Internet
Now rivals TV for source of information for young voters
Obama 2008 nearly reinvented presidential campaigns –
over 70% of funds raised via smaller donors on the internet
Volunteers recruited – signs and T shirts sold – events organized via barackobama.com

35. Twitter is his social media of choice
New record set by Sanders in primary season – OVER 5 million dollars raised.

36. Direct mail is #2 campaign technique
Direct mail fundraising appeals

37. Computer Databases Revolutionize Campaigning
Micro-targeting for contributions and votes
Databases are only as good as the data on voter
Direct voter contact via door to door and/or phone is the source for most data.
Demographic data to predict voter behavior
GOTV in the last 5 days before the election – persuadable and sporadic voters

38. Most important goal is to get attention
One way is through your own campaign expenditures
The other is to get the media to cover you for free
Where should I eat
Who do I have up on stage with me
When do I announce policy proposals
Everything is calculated to get the most
FREE media attention possible

39. Organizing A Campaign
Campaigns have too much to do and too little time to do it.
Major campaigns – President, Senator, Congressman, and governor – require all of these specialists

40. Campaign Roles Campaign manager Fund-raiser Lawyer/counsel
Media consultants
Coordinator of volunteers
Advance Workers – get it all set up for campaign to arrive
Researchers and policy advisors
Pollsters
Press secretary
Website webmaster

41. Learning Target 9.3
Identify how the financing of federal campaigns is regulated and evaluate the influence of money in elections.
Students can explain the various mechanisms for gaining money and the laws that govern those collections.

42. The Rising Cost of Campaigns

43. Two Ways to Contribute Money
Campaign contributions to the candidates’ campaigns/parties that go directly into the politicians or parties bank accounts and can be used any way they want.
Donations to groups that make independent expenditures. These groups use this money to indirectly support a campaign but CANNOT coordinate with the campaign.

44. Regulations on campaign contributions
Federal Election Campaign Act (1974)
Must disclose who has contributed money to the campaign
Must disclose how the money has been spent
Limited individual contributions
Limited amount a PAC* can contribute
* Political Action Committee – groups that raise money and contribute it to candidates the group supports

45. A new way to donate…
McCutheon v FEC in 2014 allowed for the creation of Joint Fundraising committees. It doesn’t allow you to donate more – it just makes it easier to write one giant check.
Presidential candidates and their respective political parties form a number of joint fundraising committees to collectively raise money. Donors write one large check, usually so they can attend an event headlined by the candidate, and the money then gets allocated according to predetermined formulas and contribution limits. Typically, when a contributor makes a five-figure donation, the candidate gets the maximum allowed by law for an individual donor; the national party takes a cut; and the remainder is split among state parties. Donors to these joint fundraising committees, or JFCs, are among the biggest fish in political fundraising.

46. Who makes sure the limits are upheld?
Established the FEC (Federal Election Commission)
3 Democrats
3 Republicans
4 votes to get anything done…ummmm…gridlock???
Wanna know who donated money to The Donald, Hillz or are you feeling the Bern?

47. Presidential Election Campaign Fund
Tax return $3 check-off (only 7% check the box)
John McCain and Palin last to use it
Limits private donations that a candidate can accept
Take the money or not?
With $1 billion raised by each candidate in 2012 – what’s the future?

48. SCOTUS contributes to the mess
Buckley v. Valeo – Part of the Federal Election Campaign Act is struck down. If you wanna spend your own Benjamins’ on your own campaign – you have at it…

49. Anything Else??

50. The guy that created them
Soft Money Donations
Party building activities
GOTV, voter registration
Ads and literature that promote the party slate
Unlimited for some time
The guy that created them
Donated 7 Million for a new headquarters building for the Democrats

51. McCain Feingold Act in 2002 The last effort to control the influence of money on politics
Limited individual donations to $2,000 per person – indexed to inflation
PAC’s can give up to $5,000 (also indexed to inflation)
Limited donations to political parties to $25,000 – indexed to inflation
Goal is transparency
records are open:

52. Hydraulic Theory of Money

53. Is it full now?

54. Now it’s full

55. Well now?
Hydraulic Theory of money says that like water – money will find it’s way in

56. So can you buy an election?
Technically and legally - NO
After McCain Feingold – wealthy individuals discovered another loophole that allowed donations to 527 groups.

57. 527 Groups
Independent political groups that are not subject to contribution restrictions because:
Can’t directly endorse candidates
Can’t say “vote for or vote against”
Can’t coordinate with a candidate

58. Are there ANY rules at all for this $
Independent expenditures to these 527 groups were still restricted
Corporations and unions could not use their general treasury funds to pay for “electioneering” within 60 days of a federal election
speeches and other activities that are intended to persuade people to vote for a particular person or political party

59. Citizens United Case – 2010 Corporations have the
The 2010 Citizens United case overturned the restriction on corporate/union donations to issue ads
Corporations have the
same rights as people.

60. So what does Citizens United mean?
Corporations/unions have all the 1st Amendment rights of citizens with regard to political speech
So corporations and unions can spend as much as they want on 527 groups
Still limited in contributions to campaigns/candidates
A new vehicle for giving money was “discovered”

61. New Rules Since Citizen’s United
501 (c) 4 groups (charities – social welfare)
Anonymous and unlimited donations – not regulated by the FEC
Regulated by the IRS
“Issue ads”
NO Coordination with the campaign

62. How could SCOTUS allow for what is essentially “buying votes”
Five justices concluded that “independent expenditures do not lead to or create corruption”
The next case they heard opened the flood gates of money even further
PACs that only made “independent expenditures” could take unlimited amounts of money. Can’t coordinate with candidate but can endorse one

63. Sooooo many ways to donate
Candidate/Party – limited and reported
To myself – unlimited but reported
To a PAC for a candidate or party – limited and reported
SUPER PAC – unlimited/reported – no coordination
527 Group – unlimited/reported/no coordination with candidate – no magic words
501(c)4 – unlimited/unreported/anonymous