1. The Economic Recovery in the South
Jim Diffley
US Regional Services
Atlanta
May 11, 2004

2. Regional Performance 2003/4
Job Growth
March Trend
New England % down
Middle Atlantic flat
South Atlantic up
East South Central flat
West South Central up
East North Central flat
West North Central flat
Mountain up
Pacific up
HH survey discrepancy:
US 1.65m+
Northeast, Mountain no discrepancy
WNC,ESC,PAC HH growth w/o EE growth
WSC,SAC HH gr >> EE gr
ENC accounts for 600K of difference AND xrunn is up
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3. Still a Jobless Recovery for Most States
Feb to Mar 37 states +
Yoy- 39 states
VA, FL in top 5 in growth
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4. Regional Performance 2003/4
Job Growth U Rate Income Growth
March Trend q Wages
Maryland up
Virginia up
Kentucky flat
Tennessee flat
North Carolina flat
South Carolina up
Georgia flat
Alabama flat
Mississippi flat
Florida up
NC u rate 6.0 Feb
MS 5.5
Sectors of note:
PBS VA
GOV VA
GOV NC
CON GA
PBS FL
CON FL – mention home prices up
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Comparative Job Performance
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6. Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc.
Current Job Performance
Maryland & Virginia
Federal spending on defense and homeland security kept this region strong ( Northern VA to Baltimore )
Florida
continued to lead in growth, tourism back
state remains a strong attractor
Georgia
hit hard by telecomm
appeared to regain, but employment survey erred (same in South Carolina, but opposite direction)
Textile manufacturing the key drag
Auto transplants the positive
FL also gets defense , Scripps biotech research institute #1 eco dev 2004
Orlando, Tampa the fastest
Orlando tourism back to pre 9-11
LQ still above 4 in region for textiles
Nissan in TN; Honda, Mercedes in Alabama, auto suppliers throughout
New corporate headquarters:
Rubbermaid in Atlanta
Louisiana-Pacific, Asurion in Nashville
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Comparative Job Performance: Manufacturing 1.03m Lost
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8. Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc.
Comparative Job Performance: Professional and Business Services
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9. Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc.
Comparative Job Performance: Unemployment Rate
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Comparative Income Performance
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11. Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc.
Comparative Performance: Housing Starts
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12. Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc.
Regional Forecast 2004
Job Growth Income
New England % 3.5%
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East South Central
West South Central
East North Central
West North Central
Mountain
Pacific
HH survey discrepancy:
US 1.65m+
Northeast, Mountain no discrepancy
WNC,ESC,PAC HH growth w/o EE growth
WSC,SAC HH gr >> EE gr
ENC accounts for 600K of difference AND xrunn is up
11/13/201811/13/2018
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13. Relative Performance (Jobs)
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14. Relative Performance (Jobs)
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15. Relative Performance (Jobs)
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16. Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc.
Return to Peak ( ) Employment Pennsylvania’s Decline was Relatively Mild
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17. Employment Growth 2004-09 (Average Annual growth rate)
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18. Personal Income Growth 2004-2009 (Average Annual Growth rate)
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19. Recession and Recovery vs. 1990s
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20. Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc.
Migration : Top 10
Florida 299, , ,037
California 200, , ,190
Texas 168, , ,008
Arizona 98, , ,466
Georgia 81, , ,699
Nevada 71, , ,219
North Carolina 61, , ,495
Virginia 39, , ,874
Washington 43, , ,903
Maryland , ,470
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21. Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc.
Migration 2003/4 (000’s)
2003 total net internal net internal
Maryland DC
Virginia
Kentucky
Tennessee
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Alabama
Mississippi
Florida
NC u rate 6.0 Feb
MS 5.5
Sectors of note:
PBS VA
GOV VA
GOV NC
CON GA
PBS FL
CON FL – mention home prices up
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22. Net Domestic In-Migration : 2002-2003 Top 10
Florida 176, ,734
Arizona , ,200
Nevada , ,718
Georgia , ,785
Virginia , ,412
North Carolina 28, ,100
Tennessee , ,942
South Carolina 16, ,735
Texas , ,988
Oregon , ,300
Washington , ,687
Maryland 16, ,266
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23. Net Domestic Out-Migration : 2002-2003 Top 10
New York 170, ,828
California 108, ,861
Illinois , ,980
Massachusetts 28, ,099
New Jersey , ,225
Ohio , ,497
Michigan , ,583
District of Columbia 10, ,837
Utah , ,263
Colorado +11, ,611
Louisiana 18, ,605
Kansas , ,568
Pennsylvania -3, ,841
Alabama -4, ,000
Indiana -8, ,000
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24. Do Jobs Follow People or Do People Follow Jobs?
YES
2002 Migration Muted by Business Cycle
2003 Flows:
Northeast to South: 121,000 ( )
Midwest to South: ,000 ( )
South to West: ,000 ( )
Demographics in the South:
FL # 1 (17%) , WV #3 in over 65 share of state pop
GA (9.5%) #49, VA #43
West to NE: 32 =
MidWest to West 35 =
NE to MW 9 = 71-62
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