1. Introducing Theories of Change
Michael Drinkwater, PIKL
Asia Program Quality Group Meeting
Hanoi, March 2009

2. A Programmatic Approach: The Mind Shift
It is difficult to shift our mindsets about our work, about what it should be about, and about the scope and scale we need to reach.
Projects – and even related sequences of projects – are an answer to the question, “What can CARE do?” (even if there are contractual partnerships within the project).
Programs – when crafted correctly – respond to a different question: “What is the change in society (impact) that we wish to catalyze?”

3. A Programmatic Approach: The Mind Shift - 2
A program is more about CARE articulating a picture and vision of social change – one of course in line with government and MDG strategies – that moves others to join forces with us (and us with them) to achieve something far beyond our sole ability to accomplish.
It is about being both more AMBITIOUS and more REALISTIC than we are conventionally when working in projects.

4. Definition of a Program
A program is a coherent set of initiatives by CARE and our allies that involves a long term commitment to specific marginalized and vulnerable groups to achieve lasting impact at broad scale on underlying causes of poverty and social injustice.
This goes beyond the scope of projects to achieve positive changes in human conditions, in social positions and in the enabling environment.

5. 8 Characteristics of a Program
A clearly defined goal for impact on the lives of a specific group, realized at broad scale.
A thorough analysis of underlying causes of poverty, gender inequality, and social injustice at multiple levels with multiple stakeholders.
An explicit theory of change that is rigorously tested and adapted to reflect ongoing learning.
A coherent set of initiatives that enable CARE and our partners to contribute significantly to the transformation articulated in the theory of change.
Ability to promote organizational and social learning, to generate knowledge and evidence of impact.
Contribution to broad movements for social change through our work with and strengthening of partners, networks and alliances.
A strategy to leverage and influence the use and allocation of financial and other resources within society for maximizing change at a broader scale.
Accountability systems to internal and external stakeholders that are transparent.
A clearly defined goal for impact on the lives of a specific group, realized at broad scale.
The program must define what “broad scale” means, but, in general, we mean at least at national scale or for a whole marginalized population group.
Impact should occur across three areas of unifying framework (human conditions, social position, enabling environment).
Impact should be seen and evaluated over an extended period of time.
2. A thorough analysis of underlying causes of poverty and social injustice at multiple levels with multiple stakeholders.
“Multiple levels” means community through global.
Analysis includes scenarios based on potential risk.
Analysis identifies and prioritizes the causes that MUST be addressed in order to achieve the goal.
This analysis is updated regularly to incorporate changes in context.
3. An explicit theory of change that is rigorously tested and adapted to reflect ongoing learning.
A theory of change outlines the key assumptions and hypotheses that underpin the program design.
The theory should be robust enough to be applicable in various scenarios of risk.
4. A coherent set of initiatives that enable CARE and our partners to contribute significantly to the transformation articulated in the theory of change.
At a minimum these initiatives will challenge power relations, achieve systemic changes in institutions, work at multiple levels, contribute to policy change.
5. Ability to promote organizational and social learning, to generate knowledge and evidence of impact.
Evidence and knowledge will be used for advocacy, risk analysis and mitigation, adapting the theory of change and leveraging resources.
6. Contribution to broad movements for social change through our work with and strengthening of partners, networks and alliances.
This means clearly understanding and strengthening our organizational credibility, legitimacy, identity and positioning.
7. A strategy to leverage and influence the use and allocation of financial and other resources within society for maximizing change at a broader scale.
This requires protecting and developing our knowledge and talent base, demonstrating impact and cost-effectiveness of strategies, and building new types of donor relationships.
8. Accountability systems to internal and external stakeholders.
To the marginalized groups whose rights we seek to see fulfilled.
To allies and partners, including donors and governments.
All staff are accountable for their contribution to the program.

6. How are new programs different?
Need to ensure that as COs reorganize their project portfolios into programs, that this is not simply a relabeling exercise (sectors now become programs)
Importance of starting with clear identification of impact populations
Distinction between impact population, target group and stakeholders

7. Components of Program Design( 5 )
PROGRAM STRATEGY
Coherent set of initiatives
with clearly articulated
strategies for achieving the
outcomes
With and
By Whom E . g
Allies ,
strategic
partners
and other
stake -
holders 3
SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS
Context
UCP
gender
power analysis 1
IMPACT GROUP +
DESCRIPTION 2
LONG
TERM IMPACT GOAL 4
THEORY OF CHANGE
CAUSAL PATH
OUTCOME
Year
ASSUMPTIONS
RISKS 6
LEARNING AND
IMPACT
MEASUREMENT
SYSTEM 15
Hypothesis
“if
Then”
This is non-linear – very different from a project log frame
It is deliberately non-sequential – there is no one direction in which to proceed
The process of design is iterative and involves tacking backwards and forwards between components
The central component is the Theory of Change – in design, much of our effort will be focused on making sure this is as robust and coherent as possible.

8. Impact, Target, Sub Groups and Stakeholders
Health Bureau
Impact Group
Schools community
Resource poor youth in urban and peri-
urban areas vulnerable to HIV & AIDS
Brokers
BOLSA
Youth associations, Women associations, Kebele Administration
ACSI
Male and female youth living with HIV/AIDS
Rural-urban migrant CSWs
Unemployed youth (addicted)
Bureau of Youth & Sports
Chat ‘Bet’/houses
Community at transit Woreda?
Women Association
Urban youth parents
Urban Unemployed youth
Youth urban daily laborers
Micro Finance Inst.
Hotel owners & house renters
Like-minded LNGOS
Education Office
Youth Association
Police
MSE?
Micro enterprises
CBOS
(Target + Stakeholders)
Private sector (Industrialists)
Microfinance institutions
MunicipalityPA
Key:
Blue – (Sub) Impact groups
Yellow – Stakeholders
Purple – Target groups

9. Long Term Impact Goal
This is a year ambition, and specifies the kind of enduring impact we would like to see being achieved in the lives of the impact population group, at broad scale
When we start to build our strategy, the idea is that we should be both ambitious and realistic

10. Why Theories of Change?
Social change is a messy, complex affair, rather than a predictable, linear process
But while social change is complex and incoherent, it is not unintelligible
We have to be adaptive, iterative and non-linear – we have to seize opportunities and learn what works and what doesn’t work.

11. Theory of Change: Working Definition
A set of hypotheses and critical assumptions that make up a causal pathway of change which is the basis of the program design.
Hypotheses are ‘if-then’ statements between different levels of the change pathway

12. CARE Malawi Program Shift: Impact Groups
Theory of Change - 2
CARE Malawi Program Shift: Impact Groups 12

13. Change Pathways, and their Assumptions
A path of change is like a road map – but one where we have an idea of the destination, but will have to experiment to find an effective route of getting there
The change pathway(s) laid out for achieving our long-term impact goal has to be hypothetical because it is based on assumptions
It gives us a hypothetical answer to the question: what is the change we are working for and what needs (beliefs, activities, approaches) to happen for the change to come about?
It serves as a planning and reflection tool and should be regularly reviewed and adjusted (testing the assumptions, measuring breakthroughs and re-examining the pace of change)

14. Domains of Change
Are areas in which change is essential to achieving an impact goal.
A goal may have 2-4 domains of change
A domain of change may be:
a relationship between groups of people
behavior and/or structural change in a system or institutions
Laws and policies related to a specific issue
Represent all three outcome areas of the Unifying Framework

15. Breakthrough
A change that represents a leap forward or an advance on the pathway of change that is not easily reversed.
In its most important form, it is a structural or systemic change. On a smaller scale, it can be something that happens for the first time

16. Bangladesh TOC: Women’s Empowerment - 1
Narrative Form
The most socially economically, politically marginalized women will be empowered by women’s greater exercise of choice in decision affecting their lives at all levels and reduced violence against women and girls. This, accompanied by a strong social movement built on women’s solidarity and participation of men, will have a multiplier effect in realizing the impact vision

17. Desired Long-term Goal (related to population impact group)2 5
Stakeholders 6
Indicators related to breakthroughs, domains, and long-term goal 4
Breakthrough
Pathways of change
Assumptions and Risks 7
Breakthrough
Domain of change
Domain of Change
Domain of Change 3 1
Current Situation, including underlying causes/barriers to change

18. Power Within: Theory of Change

19. Bangladesh TOC: Women’s Empowerment - 2
CARE Bangladesh Impact Statement on the most Socially, Economically and Politically Marginalized Women
Women will be empowered by:
Strong
Social movements built on women's solidarity and participation of men
Exercise of greater choice in decisions affecting their lives
Reduced violence against women + X

20. Bangladesh TOC: Women’s Empowerment - 3
The “+” sign signifies that the two domains are not necessarily inter-dependent but mutually supportive. The intent is to see a positive trendline in both, with one reinforcing the other.
The strong social movements is a multiplier on the achievements of the two domains of change. Social movements will sustain and carry forward those achievements and will scale up the impact at national level. It is not enough for CARE Bangladesh to be satisfied with empowering a few women; it must think about the next generation.
The multiplier effect is also present in the pressure for structural change upon the institutions and norms that survive the cycles of repressive governments with the potential to help temper an unstable political environment.
Finally, our SII research has shown us that solidarity building is crucial for women’s empowerment.

21. Theories of Change: Summary
A Theory of Change consists of a number of domains of change linked together in an hypothesis to achieve the impact goal
It has also a set of change pathways, with identified breakthrough areas
Together, the domains of change + the pathways provide a plausible set of hypotheses and assumptions to address the major underlying causes/ barriers
It need not be complex, but it must be logical and coherent

22. From Theory of Change to Program Strategy
In starting to develop the program strategy from the TOC, we move from nouns (in the change pathways) to verbs, from the things we wish to achieve to the activities and actions needed to achieve them
In this, we need to weigh up risk carefully
We start by look for the opportunities we can use as entry points to start the process
And remember WE CANNOT DO THIS ALONE

23. Methodology for Consultancy
Understand analysis, impact population and impact goal
Identify key program themes
Construct pathways
Identify breakthroughs
Consolidate domains of change
Identify stakeholders, key assumptions, and potential core impact indicators