Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

JP Soltesz August 19th, 2014 Ft. Worth, TX

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "JP Soltesz August 19th, 2014 Ft. Worth, TX"— Presentation transcript:

1 JP Soltesz August 19th, 2014 Ft. Worth, TX
APSP Industry Summit JP Soltesz August 19th, 2014 Ft. Worth, TX

2 Prices rising….well, they were rising…
Case Shiller National + 9% y-o-y + 27% from trough !! (Q1 ‘12) Sources: Case Shiller, Haver Analytics

3 Home ownership a luxury purchase?
Sources: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Haver Analytics

4 Rates up, then flat, now down
Up recently, but like prices, they have plateaued.

5 Markets can withstand rise
Source: Freddie Mac

6 Driving housing prices is…
…The yin to demand’s yang

7 That monster lurking in the shadows is not as scary as we had expected
‘02-’05 between 4 and 5 months visible. 2 months shadow Source: Core Logic

8 Fewer foreclosures 12 month total (In 000) Source: Core Logic

9 “all signs show that demand is ready to burst” – 2010
“all signals indicate that demand is ready to pop” – 2011 “all metrics forecast that demand is ready to explode” “no comment” – 2013, 2014

10 Same old story…

11 Improving equity positions
Driven by prices rising, but also by lower interest rates Discuss here plan for TARP housing dollars – check numbers. =Market Value-Mortgages Source: US Federal Reserve

12 Household Formation ‘91-’07, 1.3m Under 400k 09-10.
Why arent HH’s forming? People living at home longer, not getting married, not getting jobs.

13 Dateline: June 22, 2014 “It’s Official: The Boomerang Kids Won’t Leave”

14 Common Thread: B.A. Degrees
14 profiles Age range 22-30 Total Debt: $636,000 ($45, Average per profile) Common Thread: B.A. Degrees

15 In 2005 40% of all student loan debt was held by people under 30
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

16 By 2012 only 33% of all student loan debt was held by people under 30
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

17 For Millennials, love and marriage don’t go together like a horse and carriage
% married at age 18-32 Source: Pew Research Center

18 Youth employment: beast of burden
Through July Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

19

20

21 Will you still need me, will you still feed me…
c y a n e c t p x e E f L i Source: CDC

22 If demand ever kicks in, watch out!
Housing Starts, 10 year averages Room To Grow 60%+ Che On track for just over 1million in 2014 SAAR Sources: US Census Bureau, Haver Analytics

23 Still below average and slowing
Permits, completions also down 893 SAAR Sources: US Census Bureau, Haver Analytics

24 Freddie Mac Monthly Average Commitment Rate July – 4.13%
Under-rated Freddie Mac Monthly Average Commitment Rate July – 4.13% Active Loan Count Share Up to 4% 4-4.5% 4.5-5% 5-5.5% 5.5-6% 6-6.5% 6.5-7% 7.5+%

25 Put TARP back to work 500 450 400 350 Housing 300 Credit Billion 250
Banks 200 Auto 150 AIG 100 50 Obligated Disbursed Cash Back

26 Remodeling still growing, less strong

27 Something’s fishy Sources: National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index; US Census Bureau

28 It’s time we go our separate ways
Sources: National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index; US Census Bureau

29 US Economy

30 US - Components of GDP 2.3% 2.2% 1.6%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

31 Don’t know much about his-toe-ree
Govt expenditures Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

32 What happened next to overall GDP
1937 1955 1993 Contraction in ‘38 2% Growth ’56-57; Contraction in ’58 Contraction in ‘74-75 Growth into tech bubble ??? Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

33 Employment

34 6.2 is bad. For an earthquake.
Sources: Haver Analytics, Bureau of Labor Statistics

35 But….(there’s always a but)
Non-institutional Population Participation Rate = Labor Force / (Those employed + Those seeking work) (16+)

36 Participation rate

37 6 consecutive months of 200,000+ jobs added to payrolls
for the first time since 1997 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

38 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
46 consecutive months of growth in payrolls. Since 1939 only a 48 month stretch from 1986–1990 saw a longer period of payroll growth. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

39 Still haven’t found what they’re looking for

40 Coke, Pepsi, or……JOLT?

41 Show me the money

42 The Chart that Could Have Saved The World

43 Home Ownership Rate

44 Home Ownership Rate

45 Home Ownership Rate 64.8 in Q1

46

47


Download ppt "JP Soltesz August 19th, 2014 Ft. Worth, TX"

Similar presentations


Ads by Google