1. Different Explanations of Climate Change
Economics
Explanations of human responses to climate change arise due to factors related to economic structures
Psychology:
Explanations of human responses to climate change arise due to factors related to individuals
Sociology (next week):
Explanations of human responses to climate change arise due to factors related to social groups

2. Before we begin
Short game, related to psychology that we will be discussing today

3. Game One Imagine I have just given you $30
After that, I give you an opportunity to win or lose $9 based on my flipping a coin
Heads: you win $9
Tails: you lose $9

4. Game One Imagine I have just given you $30
After that, I give you an opportunity to win or lose $9 based on my flipping a coin
Heads: you win $9
Tails: you lose $9
Do you want to do the coin flip?
A) Please let me do the coin flip
B) I will stick with my $30

5. Final Paper Discussion

6. General Points for Research Paper
Highlight your research question right up front
Don’t do research on a question that you already know the “right” answer for – its uninteresting!
Consider alternative explanations seriously
Write a draft and then delete, delete, delete
Only leave in those parts that relate to your research question
Keep the “background” section short (or non-existent)

7. General Points for Research Paper -- continued
Question must relate to climate change!
Can’t just be description or summary of prior research – must be analytic in some way, looking at some relationship or variation and applying theory
E.g.: If interested in affects of climate change, then look at vulnerability/adaptation/resilience literature and make the argument be about which countries will be more (or less) successful in responding to similar climate impacts

8. Final Paper Discussion: One Option
“Apply concepts to empirical cases” option
Intro
Review literature that categorizes things in the social world related to climate change (adaptive capacity, vulnerability, or similar)
Show how these concepts allow you to see differences between different cases, e.g., which country is more vulnerable to climate change
Conclusion

9. Final Paper Discussion: Another Option
“Comparison of alternative policies” option
Intro
Criteria of comparison
Describe the alternatives
Assess the alternatives against your criteria
Conclusion

10. Final Paper Discussion: Another Option
“Explaining something” option
Intro
Theory
How scholars discuss the DV
What IVs scholars suggest cause variation in the DV
Describe your case(s)
Assess which of the IVs does the best job of explaining the variation you see in your cases
Conclusion

11. Logistics and Style Stuff Be a Professional
NO experiments or surveys – its illegal without “human subjects clearance” which takes too long to do during a quarter
Use headings to structure your argument
Run spell-check
Proofread as a separate step
Alphabetize and be consistent in formatting of citations
Use in-text citations to keep things simple

12. Introduction to psychology of climate change
Many slides courtesy of Ezra Markowitz
Used with permisson

13. Psychology and Climate Change
We are not “rational” as a basic assumption
People use 2 types of thinking (Kahneman, 2011)
Associative/affective reasoning: fast, intuitive, emotional, personal
Analytic/intellectual reasoning: “slower, deliberative, logical, statistical
Psych and what we understand:
Availability heuristics
Psych and what we worry about:
Finite pool of worry
Psych and what we do
Single action bias
Status quo bias
Social norms

14. Psychological assumptions
People lack information about climate change
More information = better decision-making
“Right” information = more support for policy
Information availability = use of information
Scare people = more action
Make people feel guilty = more engagement
THESE ARE ALL FALSE (at least some of the time)

15. How people get and use climate change information
Decision-makers only pay attention to certain sources, types of info
Republicans go to FoxNews, Democrats go to MSNBC
We tend to reject information that goes against core beliefs, values
Or that suggests something be done that we disagree with (motivated reasoning)
We evaluate information both emotionally (“System 1”) and cognitively (“System 2”)

16. Two systems Affective system: Cognitive or rational system:
Fast, automatic, associative, emotional
Cognitive or rational system:
Slower, deliberative, “cold and calculating”
Two systems operate in parallel to interpret information about CC
When outputs are in disagreement (e.g., Affect says CC isn’t a problem but Cognitive says it is), decision-making is generally driven by affective system

17. Risk perceptions Experience more important than description
Learn about risks from description vs. experience
Learn about CC mostly from description from scientists
Learning from experience is more powerful driver of risk perception (but directly experience weather, not climate)

18. Game Two Imagine I am going to flip a coin as follows
Heads: you win $39
Tails: you win $21
If you don’t do the coin flip, I will give you $30
Do you want to do the coin flip?
A) Please let me do the coin flip
B) I will take the $30

19. Results of two games
Only difference is whether I “primed” you to think of yourself as having the $30 before you start or not
Game One: losses frame – might go down from $30 to $21
Generally, more people take the bet
Risk seeking behavior
Game Two: gains frame – going up from $0 to $21 or $39
Generally, more people go for “sure thing”
Risk averse behavior
Similar to gambling or stock market

20. Coins and climate change
People are influenced by how things are described and present even if the thing itself is the same
How we describe and present options for climate change will influence whether people vote for them or not

21. How info is presented
Humans are sensitive to how information is presented
CC can be “framed” in multiple ways:
Content frames: public health, national security, environmental conservation
Structure frames: loss vs. gain; present vs. future
We generally accept risk if thinking about possible losses; but avoid risk if thinking about possible gains
So, take more risks when come across loss-framed info
Climate change generally presented as losses frame

22. Lots of evidence that we do not act rationally
Game presented you with information that is objectively the same, but often people make different decisions in the two cases
Small, irrelevant, things often influence our decisions (parole judges)
Women overestimate risk of breast cancer but underestimate risk of heart disease

23. We don’t perceive risks “rationally”
Estimates of Probabilities of Death From Various Causes Amos Tversky study:
Cause
Subject Estimates
Statistical Estimates
Heart Disease
0.22
0.34
Cancer
0.18
0.23
Other Natural Causes
0.33
0.35
All Natural Causes
0.73
0.92
Accident
0.32
0.05
Homicide
0.10
0.01
Other Unnatural Causes
0.11
0.02
All Unnatural Causes
0.53
0.08

24. We take “unsmart” risks when we FRAME (“think of”) things as losses
Implications for climate change
Take more chances and risks if believe we are faced with losses
If see climate change as mainly framed as a “loss” which means we are likely to take unrealistic risks to get back to the “no climate change world”
Alternatively, if see climate change as going to happen and our behavior allows us to get the less-warmed world as a “sure thing” if we take certain actions, we might take actions that are more in line with the “real” odds

25. Psychology: barriers to understanding
Beliefs influence perceptions, not vice versa
Farmers see what they believe, not believe what they see
We believe personal experience, not the statistics
Perceptions about climate change causes and consequences are socially constructed within communities and lead us to “attend to, fear, and socially amplify some risks while ignoring, discounting, or attenuating others” (Weber 2010)

26. Psychology: barriers to worrying about climate
Availability heuristic: whether we believe something depends on whether we can think of examples
Use easily-available and recent memories to estimate likelihood of things happening, regardless of how rare we know them to be
OVER-worry about things that have happened recently
UNDER-worry about rare things that haven’t happened for awhile
Not scared enough by rare events, but scared too much when they happen (Sandy/Katrina; Fukushima; earthquakes). Overreact after major event but then “falls off radar”

27. Psychology: barriers to worrying about climate
Finite pool of worry
Can only worry about so much: if worry more about climate change, we worry less about other things
If worry more about other things (like the economy), we worry less about climate change, with no change in the objective risks

28. Psychology: barriers to taking action
Single action bias
“Regardless of which single action is taken first, decision makers have a tendency not to take any further action, presumably because the first action suffices in reducing the feeling of worry or vulnerability.”

29. Psychology: barriers to taking action
Status quo bias
“People do not move away from hazards even when they are aware of them”
Won’t move into bad situation but will stay in one
“Nudge” issues: wherever we start, there we stay
Netflix subscriptions
Automatic enrollment in retirement plans
BUT policies can make a difference – UK retirement plan
Env’l options? EWEB make renewable energy default
People retain freedom but behave differently
Sometimes even prefer the default option, although would not choose it

30. Psychology: barriers to taking action
Optimistic biases (Weinstein, 1980): Uncertainty promotes optimism
Not my fault
Commons dilemma
Undercuts responsibility and action
Lack of “efficacy” – feeling that you can make a difference
Moral judgment system ill-equipped to recognize and deal with unintended outcome of our own behavior (Markowitz & Shariff, 2012)
No obvious villain to blame
Unintentional side-effect of modern life

31. Psych discussion
How can we use these insights to address the problem of climate change?
Default options: e.g., green energy
Framing: risk seeking