1. Integrating Energy and Air Quality
Northwest Power and Conservation Council
Member Phil Rockefeller
Presentation to
National Association of Clean Air Agencies
October 1, 2012

2. Northwest Power & Conservation Council
Northwest Power Act of 1980
Interstate Compact
4 states, 8 members, appointed by Governor
A unique agency charged by Congress to:
Develop a 20-year Northwest Power Plan
Develop a fish and wildlife program
Public outreach and accountability
A unique agency charged by Congress to:
Develop a 20-year Northwest Power Plan that ensures an adequate, efficient, economical, and reliable power supply
Develop a fish and wildlife program to protect, mitigate, and enhance fish and wildlife in the Columbia Basin that have been affected by the hydro system
Be the region’s balanced voice – provide opportunities for the public to be involved in energy, fish and wildlife decisions
Provide accountability – the public watchdog over public investments

3. Northwest Power Plan Long-term regional power plan
Updated every 5 years
Electricity demand and price forecasts
Identifies least-cost, least-risk resources
Northwest Power Act decreed energy efficiency as the priority resource to meet future load growth and gave it a 10% cost advantage over other resources
Northwest Power Plan (updated every 5 years)
Electricity demand and price forecasts; least-cost resources
Northwest Power Act decreed energy efficiency as the priority resource to meet future load growth and gave it a 10% cost advantage over other resources
The Council’s latest plan, the Sixth, set a goal of reaching 85% of future electric load growth with energy efficiency

4. NW Power System is Low-Carbon

5. 70% of NW Resources are Zero-Carbon
Here in the Northwest we are fortunate to have a pristine environment, abundant renewable resources, and the cleanest regional energy system in the nation
Over 70% of our energy resources are clean and carbon neutral
We’re blessed with abundant hydropower, but we’re also a leader in energy efficiency, and we’ve developed significant wind resources in the last decade
Energy efficiency is now our third largest resource (16%) behind hydro (46%) and coal (18%)
With more coal being displaced with cheaper natural gas and efficiency acquisitions continuing, energy efficiency may soon become our second largest resource

6. NW Has Been lnvesting in Energy Efficiency for Thirty Years
For more than 30 years, the Northwest has been making investments in energy efficiency – the Northwest Power Act gave us a big head start on the rest of the country
Through 2011, the region has acquired over 5,000 average megawatts of cost-effective efficiency
It is enough saved electricity to annually power the entire state of Oregon
In fact, efficiency has met over 50% of the Northwest’s load growth since 1980
It saved the region’s consumers nearly $3.1 billion in 2011 alone
It lowered 2011 Pacific Northwest carbon emissions by an estimated 19.8 million tons
Efficiency is one of the primary factors making the Northwest a desirable place to live (although most people don’t even know it)

7. Energy Efficiency is the Least-Cost Resource
These energy efficiency investments have enabled us to “stretch” the Northwest hydro system. In effect, we now have two “rivers” of clean, affordable energy – a river of water (hydropower) and a “river” of energy efficiency
The Federal Columbia River Power System (primarily hydropower) produces almost 7,000 average megawatts of firm (i.e., guaranteed) energy every year
Combined with the 5,000 megawatts of energy efficiency, we have stretched the power system to 12,000 average megawatts of inexpensive, emission-free, electricity
Over the last 30 years, this second “river” of clean, inexpensive energy has allowed us to avoid building about a dozen costly fossil fuel-fired power plants to meet our load growth
The average cost savings to utilities has been less than 2 cents per kilowatt- hour, which is less than the roughly 3 cents that the Bonneville Power Administration charges its electric-utility customers.
Energy efficiency also costs about half as much as wind power, which utilities currently purchase for 6-8 cents per kilowatt hour.
Efficiency is flat out the least cost, least risk energy resource in the Northwest and we’re out to develop all the cost-effective efficiency we can find

8. A Lot of Energy Efficiency is Still Available

9. Sixth Northwest Power Plan
Resource strategy:
Meet 85 % of growth in demand with energy efficiency
Integrate renewable s to meet state RPS’
Be ready to add natural gas-fired generation as needs materialize
Action plan (selected items):
Acquire 1,100 – 1,400 average megawatts of energy efficiency during
Increase supply and reduce demand for system flexibility
Assess and ensure resource adequacy
Resource strategy:
Meet 85 percent of growth in demand with energy efficiency
Integrate renewable resources the utilities are adding to meet state renewable portfolio standards
Take steps to be ready to add natural gas- fired generation as needs materialize
Action plan (selected items):
Acquire 1,100 – 1,400 average megawatts of energy efficiency during
Increase supply and reduce demand for system flexibility
Assess and ensure resource adequacy

10. Resource Additions in the Sixth Northwest Power Plan
Putting the average resource development of the Carbon Risk scenario together yields the picture shown
Reliance on efficiency, renewables and natural gas are illustrated clearly
Actual build out of resources will vary in specific futures conditions (750 different ones) 10

11. Regional Trends for Fossil-Fueled Generating Resources
Retirements of coal plants
Increasing reliance on natural gas-fired generation using combustion turbines
To balance wind variability
To meet utilities’ resource needs, local constraints
May result in net reduction in CO2 emissions
Existing coal: ~2,100 lbs CO2/megawatt-hour
New combined-cycle gas: ~800 lbs/megawatt-hour
New single-cycle gas: ~1,160 lbs/megawatt-hour
Natural gas is also transforming the Northwest’s energy picture due to the increase in natural gas supplies from shale formations using hydraulic fracturing techniques
Prices have fallen dramatically and gas plants are now displacing coal-fired power plants
Coal-fired power plants emit roughly two and one-half times as much carbon dioxide and larger quantities of toxic pollutants than modern combined-cycle natural gas plants
Nationwide, coal plant retirements are expected to accelerate, and here in the Northwest, retirements of two coal plants have been announced in the past year
The 550 megawatt Boardman plant in eastern Oregon will close in 2020, avoiding nearly $500 million in necessary upgrades
At the 1,340 megawatt Centralia plant in western Washington, one unit will close in 2020 and the other in 2025
Together these trends may result in net reduction in CO2 emissions
Existing coal: ~2,100 lbs CO2/megawatt-hour
New combined-cycle gas: ~800 lbs/megawatt-hour
New single-cycle gas: ~1,160 lbs/megawatt-hour

12. Existing Sources of CO2 Emissions
As existing coal-fired plants are shuttered and replaced with cleaner plants, net reductions in green house gases will occur
A recent national study indicates that if one-third of the nation’s coal plants are closed and replaced with less carbon-intensive resources by 2020, the green house gas reductions goals of the previously attempted federal “cap and trade” legislation would be achieved

13. Public Power In the U.S.
So, the question is, how does this all apply to other regions of the country that are under pressure to lower emissions at the lowest possible cost?
You don’t need a federal statute to do this. What it does take, however, is the time to educate utility executives, state regulatory agencies and electricity customers
When utilities invest in efficiency, they lower their customers’ electric bills over the long-term and they often displace fossil-fuel emissions at the same time. It’s a win-win situation
It did take Northwest utilities many years to finally embrace efficiency, but most have turned the corner and now realize it’s the cheapest and least risk path to serving their customers
Integrated Resource Planning is one of the keys
The IRP process is where much can be accomplished. Investing in energy efficiency is good business
It’s inexpensive
It reduces exposure to market risk
2,006 utilities
20,940,561 full-service customers (46 million people)
14.5% of all electric customers.

14. Links Northwest Power and Conservation Council: www.nwcouncil.org/
Sixth Northwest Power Plan:
Power Generation in the Northwest: