1. Conducting a Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
Climate Change Adaptation Training Program
The purpose of this presentation is to provide a summary of the process of conducting a climate change Vulnerability Assessment.

2. What is a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment?
Firstly, what is a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment?

3. “A Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment is a process to determine which climate change impacts are most important for your area”
Crop Yields
Fires
Irrigation Demands
Agriculture
Biodiversity
Loss of habitat & species
Change in biomes
Coastal
Sea level rise
Impacts on property &
livelihoods
Health
Air Pollution
Infectious Diseases
Settlements
Flooding
Infrastructure impacts
Water
Decreased quality and quantity of water
A Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment is defined as a process used to determine which climate change impacts are most important for your area. There are a wide range of potential impacts from climate change. These impacts, both positive and negative can take place in different sectors. This slide shows examples of different potential climate change impacts on different sectors. The purpose of the VA is to look at all these potential impacts and work out which ones are most important to your particular area.

4. Standard CC Vulnerability Assessment Methodology
1: Identify Indicators
2: Exposure
3: Sensitivity
Potential Impacts
4: Adaptive Capacity
Vulnerability
There are different ways you can assess climate change vulnerability. The methodology that is presented here is conducted in 4 steps. · In the first step we aim to identify climate change indicators · In the second step we assess the Exposure of each sector to the indicators · In the third step we assess the Sensitivity of each sector to the indicators · The final step aims to determine the Adaptive Capacity of the sectors to the potential impacts
This is a relatively standard methodology used to determine Climate Change Vulnerability, and the reason we use it is so that you can compare your Vulnerability Assessment to other areas in South Africa and around the world.
The Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Methodology may seem complicated with strange and unfamiliar terms. But as you go through each of these steps in detail in the next couple of slides, these terms and the overall methodology will become clearer.

5. Vulnerability Assessment - Step 1
Step 1: What are the CC Indicators?
What are all the potential impacts from Climate Change in South Africa?
We are now going to look at the first step of the Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment which is identifying climate change indicators. Developing a list of indicators will give you a starting point in identifying all the potential climate change impacts in your area.
You can approach this step by asking the question: “What are all the potential impacts from climate change in South Africa?” This should cover all the key sectors in the country such as agriculture, water and human settlements

6. Indicators Draft list of indicators has been developed from the LTAS
Through the Local Government Climate Change Support program, a list of potential CC indicators were developed for South Africa. This was done using the Long Term Adaptation Scenario (LTAS) Reports as a basis. These LTAS reports were developed by the Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) in order to outline the potential risks and vulnerabilities of climate change in different sectors. There are climate change reports for all major sectors in the country, e.g. Human Settlements, Agriculture, Biodiversity etc. LTAS reports provide a summary of the potential impacts from climate change in these sectors and highlight the potential adaptation responses.

7. Example of CC Indicators - Disaster Management, Infrastructure and Human Settlements
Indicator Title
Indicator Description
Loss of industrial and labour productivity
Direct impacts of weather on construction, electricity generation and other industries, resulting in loss of productivity.
Increased impacts on strategic infrastructure
Increased disruptions to key strategic infrastructure (e.g. WWTW, storm water, roads, rail, bridges) as a result of extreme weather events.
Increased impacts on traditional and informal dwellings
Increased risk of extreme weather events to already vulnerable traditional and informal dwellings, that are often unplanned, and without extensive service or infrastructure.
This table shows some of the indicators that have been developed for the Human Settlements Sector as part of the Let's Respond Toolkit Program.
An example from this list is the indicator “Increased impacts on traditional and informal dwellings”. The Indicator description states that informal dwellings and settlements, that are often unplanned, and without extensive service or infrastructure, are vulnerable to climate change impacts. Another example in the human settlements sector is that there will be “increased isolation of rural communities” resulting from climate change as rural roads are damaged and there is increased erosion from flooding.

8. Vulnerability Assessment - Step 2
Step 1: What are the CC Indicators?
Step 2: What is my exposure to the CC indicator?
Will the impact take place in my area?
Now that you have completed the first step by identifying your climate change indicators, the next step is to determine whether or not you are exposed to these climate change indicators.
You can approach this second step by asking yourself: Will this particular impact take place in my area? OR Will I be exposed to this particular climate change indicator.
You can answer this exposure question with a YES or NO answer.

9. Exposure Example Sector Indicator Title Indicator Description
Disaster Management, Infrastructure and Human Settlements
Increased impacts on traditional and informal dwellings
Increased risk of extreme weather events to already vulnerable traditional and informal dwellings, that are often unplanned, and without extensive service or infrastructure.
Do you have traditional and informal dwellings in your area?
Yes/No
Let’s carry on using an example from the Human Settlements Sector.
One of the indicators in this sector is that climate change will result in “Increased impacts on traditional and informal dwellings”. The Indicator description states that already vulnerable dwellings and settlements, that are often unplanned, and without extensive service or infrastructure will be impacted by climate change.
The exposure question reads: “Do you have informal dwellings in your area”? You need to answer yes or no to this question.

10. Traditional Dwelling - Definition
“A traditional dwelling is one made of clay, mud, thatch or other traditional materials. It can be round or square in shape. Traditional dwellings may be found as single units or in clusters.”
-StatsSA 2011
Image source:

11. Exposure Resources Website Maps LTAS and other research resources
Some of these exposure questions you will be able to answer using your own knowledge of the area. For some questions you may require further help. A set of resources have been uploaded onto the Let’s Respond Toolkit website that can provide you with further information to answer these questions.
There are various maps, indicator tables and reports which link directly to each of the indicators. These can help guide you in answering each of the steps of the vulnerability assessment. Here you can see an example of a human settlements map which can be used when responding to some of the questions. You can zoom into your particular area or municipality and click on the map for more information.You can also use the Long term Adaptation Scenarios Reports for each of the sectors. This is the report for the human settlements sector. The report provides detailed technical information on the potential impacts of climate change on the human settlements sector.

12. Vulnerability Assessment - Step 3
Step 1: What are the CC Indicators?
Step 2: What is my exposure to the CC indicator?
Step 3: What is my sensitivity to the CC indicator?
If it takes place, how important is the impact?
Now that we have identified our cc indicators in Step 1 and assessed our exposure to the indicator in Step 2, we can move on to Step 3 of the VA which is to assess your sensitivity to the indicator. You can approach this 3rd step by asking yourself: “If the impact takes place, how important will the impact be?” You answer this sensitivity question using a rating of either HIGH, MEDIUM or LOW.

13. Sensitivity Example Sector Indicator Title Indicator Description
Disaster Management, Infrastructure and Human Settlements
Increased impacts on traditional and informal dwellings
Increased risk of extreme weather events to already vulnerable traditional and informal dwellings, that are often unplanned, and without extensive service or infrastructure.
What percentage of households live in traditional and informal dwellings?
>25% = high;
15%> and <25% = Medium;
<15% = Low
Let’s take the same example from the Human Settlements Sector which we used in the exposure exercise. “Increased impacts on traditional and informal dwellings”. You will remember that the Indicator description states that already vulnerable dwellings and settlements, that are often unplanned, and without extensive service or infrastructure are vulnerable to climate change impacts. The sensitivity question reads: “What percentage of households live in informal dwellings in your area”?
You will also see that below this question there is a rating for High, Medium or Low. For this indicator, if your percentage of households that are living in informal dwellings is higher than 15%, you are highly sensitive. If the percentage of households that are living in informal dwellings are between 10 and 15% you have medium sensitivity, and if less than 10% of households are living in informal dwellings you have low sensitivity.
You can score your area as high, medium, or low for this sensitivity question using resources available from the Let’s Respond Toolkit website and your own knowledge or research of the area.

14. Sensitivity Resources
Website Statistics
Workshop handouts
These sensitivity ratings in the toolkit were determined using the national census data, various health statistics and sector reports.
The national averages were considered as the medium scores, while scores higher than the averages were rated as high and scores lower than the averages rated as low.
There are various maps and indicator tables and reports which link directly to each of the indicators. These can help guide you in answering each of the steps of the vulnerability assessment.
Here we can see an example of indicator statistics from the website for District Municipalities in the Free State. This particular tool on the Let’s Respond Toolkit lets you select different municipalities and provides the scores you need to fill in for some of the sensitivity questions in your sheet.

15. Vulnerability Assessment - Step 4
Step 1: What are the CC Indicators?
Step 2: What is my exposure to the CC indicator?
Step 3: What is my sensitivity to the CC indicator?
Step 4: What is my adaptive capacity?
Do I have systems in place to respond to the impact?
In the previous slides you went through the first three steps of conducting a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment, which was developing a list of Climate Change Indicators, assessing whether you are exposed to these indicators and assessing your sensitivity to the indicators. This resulted in a list of potential climate change impacts for your area.
Now you are going to look at the fourth step of the Vulnerability Assessment which will help you to determine what your adaptive capacity is towards these potential climate change impacts.
You can approach this fourth step by asking yourself: “Do I have systems in place to respond to the impact?” You can answer this adaptive capacity question using a rating of either HIGH, MEDIUM or LOW

16. Adaptive Capacity example
Sector
Indicator Title
Indicator Description
Disaster Management, Infrastructure and Human Settlements
Increased impacts on traditional and informal dwellings
Increased risk of extreme weather events to already vulnerable traditional and informal dwellings, that are often unplanned, and without extensive service or infrastructure.
Do you have adaptive capacity to respond to Increased impacts on traditional and informal dwellings?
High
Medium
Low
Let’s use the same example from the Human Settlements Sector we used in the exposure and sensitivity exercises. “Increased impacts on traditional and informal dwellings”. You will remember that the Indicator description states that already vulnerable dwellings and settlements, that are often unplanned, and without extensive service or infrastructure are vulnerable to climate change impacts.
The Adaptive Capacity question reads: “Do you have high, medium or low Adaptive Capacity to respond to Increased impacts on traditional and informal dwellings?”

17. Adaptive Capacity Example
Research
Is there local research on climate change impacts on traditional and informal dwellings risks?
Policy
Are there robust policies & programs in place to deal with traditional and informal dwelling impacts?
Institutional Support
Is there institutional systems to deal with traditional and informal dwellings impacts?
Finance
Is there financial support for traditional and informal dwellings programs?
Community Capacity
Is there capacity within the community to deal with climate change impacts?
To assess Adaptive Capacity you need to consider the following criteria. · The first is Research. Is there research being conducted that will assist you to respond to the potential climate change impact? · The second is Policy. Do you have any policies or regulations in place that will assist you with adapting to the potential climate change impact? · The third is Institutional Support. Do you have staff or are there organisations that can help you respond to the potential climate change impact? · The fourth is Finance. Do you have budget available to implement the necessary projects needed to respond to the potential climate change impact?

18. Adaptive Capacity Resources
Adaptive capacity is usually determined through stakeholder consultation and consensus
This overall Adaptive Capacity rating is determined by reaching a consensus during stakeholder consultations. You will discuss the different components of Adaptive Capacity and decide whether you have high, medium, or low adaptive capacity in place to respond to a potential climate change impact. The adaptive capacity ratings are as follows: · High means you have systems in place to respond to the potential climate change impact · Medium adaptive capacity means there are some systems in place to respond to the potential impact. For example you may have staff but no budget. · Low adaptive capacity means there are no or limited systems in place to respond to a potential climate change impact
To respond to this question, you would then need to consult stakeholders and try to answer the following questions: · Is there local research on informal dwellings risks? · Are there robust policies and programs in place to deal with informal dwellings? · Are there institutional systems to deal with informal dwellings? · Is there financial support for informal dwellings programs?

19. Vulnerability Assessment - Steps
Step 1: What are the CC Indicators?
Step 2: What is my exposure to the CC indicator?
Step 3: What is my sensitivity to the CC indicator?
Step 4: What is my adaptive capacity?
Lets recap the steps of the CC Vulnerability Assessment: · In step one of the vulnerability assessment you developed your list of all the potential Climate Change Indicators · In the second step you assessed whether you will be exposed to each of these indicators. · In the third step you assessed how sensitive you are to the indicators you are exposed to. Exposure and sensitivity together determine your potential climate change impacts. · In this fourth step you then assessed your Adaptive capacity to respond to the potential impacts. · Finally, if you have low adaptive capacity you are vulnerable to that particular indicator.

20. Priority indicators
Short-list the indicators that you have the following answers for:
Exposure - Yes
Sensitivity - High
Adaptive Capacity - Low
Now that you have completed all of the steps of the Vulnerability Assessment, the next step is to go through a short-listing exercise to narrow down your list of potential impacts to those that are most important for your area. This step is important as you cannot tackle all of the potential impacts due to budget and capacity constraints. The way that you shortlist your indicators is by selecting all those indicators that you answered Yes to Exposure; High to Sensitivity, and Low to Adaptive Capacity. The next slide shows some examples in more detail.

21. Priority indicator example
Exposure
Sensitivity
Adaptive Capacity
Increased impacts on traditional and informal dwellings
Yes
High
Low
Change in sugarcane production
Increased fish mortality No
Increased malnutrition and hunger as a result of food insecurity
You will remember that when you started the Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment you developed a complete list of climate change indicators for each sector in South Africa. You will also remember that a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment is a process used to determine which climate change impacts are most important for your area.
In order to prioritise your most important indicators, you began excluding indicators that were not relevant or important. 1. Those indicators that you answered NO to for exposure implies that you do not expect that particular indicator to take place in you area. 2. Those that you answered LOW or MEDIUM to for Sensitivity implies that the indicators are not relevant or of only medium importance to your area. 3. And those that you responded HIGH or MEDIUM for Adaptive capacity implies that you have some systems in place to already respond to the potential impact.
Through this short-listing process you are now left with the indicators that are a priority for your area. You should therefore make a list of the indicators that you scored the following. 1. Yes for Exposure 2. High for Sensitivity 3. Low for Adaptive Capacity

22. Vulnerability Assessment Methodology
1: Identify Indicators
2: Exposure
3: Sensitivity
Potential Impacts
4: Adaptive Capacity
Vulnerability
You have now completed all the steps of the Vulnerability Assessment and have identified a list of priority indicators to focus your efforts on.

23. Conducting a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
Climate Change Adaptation Training Program