1. Trends in Enrollment, Affordability & Financial Aid
NYSAIS Trustee Governance Conference
December 9, 2017
Mark J. Mitchell Vice President, NAIS

2. Image Source: fastcodesign.com

3. 5-Year Trending in…
Affordability
Aid and Admission Activity
Demographics
Conversations

4. Affordability

5. Who Can Afford It? In New York state (2017),
9th Grade Day Tuition,
Full-Pay Income
NAIS Day
$27,970
$175,165
NAIS Bdg-Day
$35,270
$200,775
NYSAIS
$42,400
$247,905
NYC Day Schools
$45,215
$259,010
Source: NAIS Demographic Ctr
In New York state (2017),
Median HH income = $73,425
11.9% earn over $200K
In New York City (2017),
Median HH income = $65,171
11.3% earn over $200K
Sources: Tuition data from NAIS DASL; Full-pay income based on SSS EFC Simulator (Assumptions: 2 working parents, 2 children, 1 child enrolled, one parent earns $25K, no net worth, standard taxes, CO residents for NAIS calcs, NY residents for NY calcs, no COLA)

6. Pace of Change
Data sources: NAIS DASL, US Census Dept

7. Pct Change in Income and Tuition in New York
In New York City, median HH income projected to grow 25.2% by 2022
In New York state, median income projected to grow 25.7% by 2022
Sources: NAIS Demographic Center for income data; NAIS DASL for tuition data

8. Financial Aid and Admissions Activity

9. Total Enrollment
Source: NAIS DASL, cohort sample

10. Admission Activity Highlights, Completed Applications
Source: NAIS DASL, cohort sample

11. Admission Activity Highlights, Acceptance Rate
Source: NAIS DASL, cohort sample

12. Admission Activity Highlights, Yield Rate
Source: NAIS DASL, cohort sample

13. Financial Aid Activity, % Enrolled Rec’g FA
Source: NAIS DASL, cohort sample

14. 47.3% jump for NYC day schools
Financial Aid Activity, Dollars Awarded (000’s)
47.3% jump for NYC day schools
Source: NAIS DASL, cohort sample

15. Financial Aid Activity, Discount Rate
Source: NAIS DASL, cohort sample

16. Family Income Quintiles, 2013 (US Census Bureau)
Trend In Aid Awarding
Family Income Quintiles, 2013 (US Census Bureau)
Pct Pt Difference
$0 - $29,000
11.8%
9.0%
-2.8
$29,001 - $51,000
13.1%
9.7%
-3.4
$51,001 - $78,000
19.1%
14.3%
-4.8
$78,001 - $121,000
26.0%
24.3%
-1.7
Over $121,000
30.0%
42.6%
12.6
Top 5%: Over $217,000
6.2%
11.7%
5.5
Source: SSS processing system database, analysis of approx. 35,000 awards in each year studied

17. Demographics

18. NY School-Age Population Projection, 2017 to 2022
Statewide, percentage of households with school-age children expected to drop by 2.2%
In NYC, percentage of households with school-age children expected to drop by 1.9%
In NYC, population of children 0 to 17 projected to grow just 0.12%. Statewide, a 0.06% decrease is projected.
Source: NAIS Demographic Center

19. NYC NY State NY School-Age Population Trend Age % Growth 2010-2017
% Proj Growth
NYC
0 to 4
-3.01
-0.53
5 to 9
-0.04
1.98
10 to 13
-1.55
0.48
14 to 17
-4.45
-1.66
NY State
-4.16
-0.87
-1.76
1.38
-3.12
0.46
-5.45
-1.33
Source: NAIS Demographic Center

20. % of Population by Race, Ethnicity
NYC
2017
2022 Projected
Hispanic, any race
29.2
29.4
White, Non Hispanic
30.1
29.0
Black
25.4
25.3
Asian
14.1
14.6
American Indian, Alaska Native
0.79
0.83
Other
14.0
14.4
Two or More Races
4.8
5.2
NY State
2017
2022 Projected
Hispanic, any race
18.7
19.1
White, Non Hispanic
54.6
53.4
Black
16.4
16.5
Asian
8.5
8.9
American Indian, Alaska Native
0.63
0.66
Other
8.2
Two or More Races
3.8
4.1

21. Conversations

22. Net Tuition Revenue Goal
Enrollment Goal
Meet enrollment,
Miss NTR
Price, value proposition?
Meet enrollment,
Meet NTR
Composition, mission-appropriate?
Net Tuition Revenue Goal
Miss enrollment,
Miss NTR
Viability, market perception?
Miss enrollment,
Meet NTR
Diversity, outreach?

23. Trending Topics, Issues
Lower school demand…the financial aid dilemma
Millennial parents…values and preferences
Financial aid terminology…Indexed, Individualized, Sliding Scale, Flexible Tuition

24. Leveraging Your Role
Establish or affirm the primary purpose and goal of the aid investment
Specify and diversify financial aid funding
Ensure resources for staff development in practices and leadership skills
Articulate community-wide benefits of the aid investment

25. Mark J. Mitchell, NAIS Vice President mitchell@nais.org, 202-973-9766

26. Delivering on The Purpose?
Source: SSS State of Financial Aid Survey, 2016
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