1. ©2009, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 8-1 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Chapter Twenty Managing Credit Risk on the Balance Sheet

2. ©2009, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 20-2 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Credit Risk Management Financial institutions (FIs) are special because of their ability to transform financial claims of household savers efficiently into claims issued to corporations, individuals, and governments FIs’ ability to process and evaluate information and control and monitor borrowers allows them to transform these claims at the lowest possible cost to all parties Credit allocation is an important type of financial claim transformation for commercial banks –FIs make loans to corporations, individuals, and governments –FIs accept the risks of loans in return for interest that (hopefully) covers the costs of funding—and are thus exposed to credit risk Financial institutions (FIs) are special because of their ability to transform financial claims of household savers efficiently into claims issued to corporations, individuals, and governments FIs’ ability to process and evaluate information and control and monitor borrowers allows them to transform these claims at the lowest possible cost to all parties Credit allocation is an important type of financial claim transformation for commercial banks –FIs make loans to corporations, individuals, and governments –FIs accept the risks of loans in return for interest that (hopefully) covers the costs of funding—and are thus exposed to credit risk

3. ©2009, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 20-3 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Credit Risk Management The credit quality of many FIs’ lending and investment decisions has been called into question in the past 25 years –problems related to real estate and junk bond lending surfaced at banks, thrifts, and insurance companies in the late 1980s and early 1990s –concerns related to the rapid increase of credit cards and auto lending occurred in the late 1990s –commercial lending standards declined in the late 1990s, which led to increases in high-yield business loan delinquencies –concerns shifted to technology loans in the late 1990s and early 2000s –mortgage delinquencies, particularly with subprime mortgages, surged in 2006 and continue to be a concern The credit quality of many FIs’ lending and investment decisions has been called into question in the past 25 years –problems related to real estate and junk bond lending surfaced at banks, thrifts, and insurance companies in the late 1980s and early 1990s –concerns related to the rapid increase of credit cards and auto lending occurred in the late 1990s –commercial lending standards declined in the late 1990s, which led to increases in high-yield business loan delinquencies –concerns shifted to technology loans in the late 1990s and early 2000s –mortgage delinquencies, particularly with subprime mortgages, surged in 2006 and continue to be a concern

4. ©2009, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 20-4 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Credit Risk Management Larger banks are generally more likely to accept riskier loans than smaller banks Larger banks are also exposed to more counterparty risk off-the-balance-sheet than smaller banks Managerial efficiency and credit risk management strategies directly affect the return and risk of the loan portfolio At the extreme, credit risk can lead to insolvency as large loan losses can wipe out an FI’s equity capital Larger banks are generally more likely to accept riskier loans than smaller banks Larger banks are also exposed to more counterparty risk off-the-balance-sheet than smaller banks Managerial efficiency and credit risk management strategies directly affect the return and risk of the loan portfolio At the extreme, credit risk can lead to insolvency as large loan losses can wipe out an FI’s equity capital

5. ©2009, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 20-5 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Credit Analysis Real estate lending –mortgage loan applications are among the most standard of all credit applications –decisions to approve or disapprove a mortgage application depend on the applicant’s ability and willingness to make timely interest and principal payments the value of the borrower’s collateral –the ability to maintain mortgage payments is measured by GDS and TDS Real estate lending –mortgage loan applications are among the most standard of all credit applications –decisions to approve or disapprove a mortgage application depend on the applicant’s ability and willingness to make timely interest and principal payments the value of the borrower’s collateral –the ability to maintain mortgage payments is measured by GDS and TDS

6. ©2009, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 20-6 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Credit Analysis Real estate lending (cont.) –GDS refers to the gross debt service ratio equal to the total accommodation expenses (mortgage, lease, condominium, management fees, real estate taxes, etc.) divided by gross income acceptable threshold generally set around 25% to 30% –TDS refers to the total debt service ratio equal to the total accommodation expenses plus all other debt service payments divided by gross income acceptable threshold generally set around 35% to 40% Real estate lending (cont.) –GDS refers to the gross debt service ratio equal to the total accommodation expenses (mortgage, lease, condominium, management fees, real estate taxes, etc.) divided by gross income acceptable threshold generally set around 25% to 30% –TDS refers to the total debt service ratio equal to the total accommodation expenses plus all other debt service payments divided by gross income acceptable threshold generally set around 35% to 40%

7. ©2009, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 20-7 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Credit Analysis Real estate lending (cont.) –FIs also use credit scoring systems to evaluate potential borrowers credit scoring systems are mathematical models that use observed loan applicant’s characteristics to calculate a score that represents the applicant’s probability of default loan officers can often give immediate “yes” or “no” answers—along with justifications for the decision –FIs also verify borrower’s financial statements perfecting collateral is the process of ensuring that collateral used to secure a loan is free and clear to the lender should the borrower default on the loan Real estate lending (cont.) –FIs also use credit scoring systems to evaluate potential borrowers credit scoring systems are mathematical models that use observed loan applicant’s characteristics to calculate a score that represents the applicant’s probability of default loan officers can often give immediate “yes” or “no” answers—along with justifications for the decision –FIs also verify borrower’s financial statements perfecting collateral is the process of ensuring that collateral used to secure a loan is free and clear to the lender should the borrower default on the loan

8. ©2009, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 20-8 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Credit Analysis Real estate lending (cont.) –FIs do not desire to become involved in loans that are likely to go into default –in the event of default lenders usually have recourse foreclosure is the process of taking possession of the mortgaged property in satisfaction of a defaulting borrower’s indebtedness and forgoing claim to any deficiency power of sale is the process of taking the proceedings of the forced sale of a mortgaged property in satisfaction of the indebtedness and returning to the mortgagor the excess over the indebtedness or claiming any shortfall as an unsecured creditor Real estate lending (cont.) –FIs do not desire to become involved in loans that are likely to go into default –in the event of default lenders usually have recourse foreclosure is the process of taking possession of the mortgaged property in satisfaction of a defaulting borrower’s indebtedness and forgoing claim to any deficiency power of sale is the process of taking the proceedings of the forced sale of a mortgaged property in satisfaction of the indebtedness and returning to the mortgagor the excess over the indebtedness or claiming any shortfall as an unsecured creditor

9. ©2009, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 20-9 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Credit Analysis Real estate lending (cont.) –before an FI accepts a mortgage, it confirms the title and legal description of the property obtains a surveyor’s certificate confirming that the house is within the property’s boundaries checks with the tax office to confirm that no property taxes are unpaid requests a land title search to determine that there are no other claims against the property obtains an independent appraisal to confirm that the purchase price is in line with the market value of the property Real estate lending (cont.) –before an FI accepts a mortgage, it confirms the title and legal description of the property obtains a surveyor’s certificate confirming that the house is within the property’s boundaries checks with the tax office to confirm that no property taxes are unpaid requests a land title search to determine that there are no other claims against the property obtains an independent appraisal to confirm that the purchase price is in line with the market value of the property

10. ©2009, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 20-10 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Credit Analysis Consumer and small business lending –techniques are very similar to that of mortgage lending –however, non-mortgage consumer loans focus on the ability to repay rather than on the property credit models put more emphasis on personal characteristics –small-business loan decisions often combine computer- based financial analysis of borrower financial statements with behavioral analysis of the business owner Consumer and small business lending –techniques are very similar to that of mortgage lending –however, non-mortgage consumer loans focus on the ability to repay rather than on the property credit models put more emphasis on personal characteristics –small-business loan decisions often combine computer- based financial analysis of borrower financial statements with behavioral analysis of the business owner

11. ©2009, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 20-11 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Credit Analysis Mid-market commercial and industrial lending –is generally a profitable market for credit-granting FIs –typically mid-market corporates have sales revenues from $5 million to $100 million per year have a recognizable corporate structure do not have ready access to deep and liquid capital markets –commercial loans can be for as short as a few weeks to as long as 8 years or more short-term loans are used to finance working capital needs long-term loans are used to finance fixed asset purchases Mid-market commercial and industrial lending –is generally a profitable market for credit-granting FIs –typically mid-market corporates have sales revenues from $5 million to $100 million per year have a recognizable corporate structure do not have ready access to deep and liquid capital markets –commercial loans can be for as short as a few weeks to as long as 8 years or more short-term loans are used to finance working capital needs long-term loans are used to finance fixed asset purchases

12. ©2009, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 20-12 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Credit Analysis Mid-market C&I lending (cont.) –generally at least two loan officers must approve a new loan customer –large credit requests are presented formally to a credit approval officer and/or committee –five C’s of credit character capacity collateral conditions capital Mid-market C&I lending (cont.) –generally at least two loan officers must approve a new loan customer –large credit requests are presented formally to a credit approval officer and/or committee –five C’s of credit character capacity collateral conditions capital

13. ©2009, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 20-13 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Credit Analysis Mid-market C&I lending (cont.) –FIs perform cash flow analyses, which provide information regarding an applicants expected cash receipts and disbursements –statements of cash flows separate cash flows into cash flows from operating activities cash flows from investing activities cash flows from financing activities –FIs may also perform ratio analyses time-series analyses cross-sectional analyses Mid-market C&I lending (cont.) –FIs perform cash flow analyses, which provide information regarding an applicants expected cash receipts and disbursements –statements of cash flows separate cash flows into cash flows from operating activities cash flows from investing activities cash flows from financing activities –FIs may also perform ratio analyses time-series analyses cross-sectional analyses

14. ©2009, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 20-14 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Credit Analysis Mid-market C&I lending (cont.) –common ratio analysis includes liquidity ratios –current ratio –quick ratio (i.e., the acid test) asset management ratios –number of days in receivables –number of days in inventories –sales to working capital –sales to fixed assets –sales to total assets (i.e., the asset turnover ratio) Mid-market C&I lending (cont.) –common ratio analysis includes liquidity ratios –current ratio –quick ratio (i.e., the acid test) asset management ratios –number of days in receivables –number of days in inventories –sales to working capital –sales to fixed assets –sales to total assets (i.e., the asset turnover ratio)

15. ©2009, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 20-15 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Credit Analysis Mid-market C&I lending (cont.) debt and solvency ratios –debt-to-assets ratio –times interest earned ratio –cash-flow-to-debt ratio profitability ratios –gross margin –operating profit margin –return on assets (ROA) –return on equity (ROE) –dividend payout ratio Mid-market C&I lending (cont.) debt and solvency ratios –debt-to-assets ratio –times interest earned ratio –cash-flow-to-debt ratio profitability ratios –gross margin –operating profit margin –return on assets (ROA) –return on equity (ROE) –dividend payout ratio

16. ©2009, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 20-16 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Credit Analysis Mid-market C&I lending (cont.) –ratio analysis has limitations diverse firms are difficult to compare versus benchmarks different accounting methods can distort industry comparisons applicants can distort financial statements –common-size analysis and growth rates common-size financial statements present values as percentages to facilitate comparison versus competitors year-to-year growth rates can identify trends –loan covenants can be used as part of the loan agreement to mitigate credit risk Mid-market C&I lending (cont.) –ratio analysis has limitations diverse firms are difficult to compare versus benchmarks different accounting methods can distort industry comparisons applicants can distort financial statements –common-size analysis and growth rates common-size financial statements present values as percentages to facilitate comparison versus competitors year-to-year growth rates can identify trends –loan covenants can be used as part of the loan agreement to mitigate credit risk

17. ©2009, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 20-17 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Credit Analysis Mid-market C&I lending (cont.) –following approval, the account officer ensures that conditions precedent have been cleared those conditions specified in the credit agreement or terms sheet for a credit that must be fulfilled before drawings are permitted includes title searches, perfecting of collateral, etc. –FIs typically wish to develop permanent, long-term, mutually beneficial relationships with their mid-market commercial and industrial customers Mid-market C&I lending (cont.) –following approval, the account officer ensures that conditions precedent have been cleared those conditions specified in the credit agreement or terms sheet for a credit that must be fulfilled before drawings are permitted includes title searches, perfecting of collateral, etc. –FIs typically wish to develop permanent, long-term, mutually beneficial relationships with their mid-market commercial and industrial customers

18. ©2009, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 20-18 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Credit Analysis Large commercial and industrial lending –fees and spreads are smaller relative to small and mid- size corporate loans, but the transactions are often large enough to make them worthwhile –FIs’ relationships with large clients often center around broker, dealer, and advisor activities with lending playing a lesser role –large corporations often use loan commitments performance guarantees term loans Large commercial and industrial lending –fees and spreads are smaller relative to small and mid- size corporate loans, but the transactions are often large enough to make them worthwhile –FIs’ relationships with large clients often center around broker, dealer, and advisor activities with lending playing a lesser role –large corporations often use loan commitments performance guarantees term loans

19. ©2009, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 20-19 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Credit Analysis Large C&I lending (cont.) –account officers often rely on rating agencies and market analysts to aid in their credit analysis –sophisticated credit scoring models are also used Altman’s z-score: Z = 1.2X 1 + 1.4X 2 + 3.3X 3 + 0.6X 4 + 1.0X 5 whereX 1 = working capital ÷ total assets X 2 = retained earnings ÷ total assets X 3 = earnings before interest and taxes ÷ total assets X 4 = market value of equity ÷ book value of long-term debt X 5 = sales ÷ total assets KMV Credit Monitor Model uses the option pricing model of Merton, Black, and Scholes to calculate expected default frequencies Large C&I lending (cont.) –account officers often rely on rating agencies and market analysts to aid in their credit analysis –sophisticated credit scoring models are also used Altman’s z-score: Z = 1.2X 1 + 1.4X 2 + 3.3X 3 + 0.6X 4 + 1.0X 5 whereX 1 = working capital ÷ total assets X 2 = retained earnings ÷ total assets X 3 = earnings before interest and taxes ÷ total assets X 4 = market value of equity ÷ book value of long-term debt X 5 = sales ÷ total assets KMV Credit Monitor Model uses the option pricing model of Merton, Black, and Scholes to calculate expected default frequencies

20. ©2009, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 20-20 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Credit Analysis Calculating the return on a loan –the return on assets (ROA) approach uses the contractually promised gross return on a loan, k, per dollar lent wheref = the loan origination fee b = the compensating balance requirement R = the reserve requirement ratio BR = the base lending rate m = the credit risk premium on the loan Calculating the return on a loan –the return on assets (ROA) approach uses the contractually promised gross return on a loan, k, per dollar lent wheref = the loan origination fee b = the compensating balance requirement R = the reserve requirement ratio BR = the base lending rate m = the credit risk premium on the loan

21. ©2009, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 20-21 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Credit Analysis Calculating the return on a loan (cont.) –the risk-adjusted return on assets (RAROC) model balances a loan’s expected income against its expected risk the RAROC is compared vis-à-vis the lender’s tax-adjusted return on equity (ROE) –if RAROC > ROE make the loan –if RAROC ROE or decline to make the loan Calculating the return on a loan (cont.) –the risk-adjusted return on assets (RAROC) model balances a loan’s expected income against its expected risk the RAROC is compared vis-à-vis the lender’s tax-adjusted return on equity (ROE) –if RAROC > ROE make the loan –if RAROC ROE or decline to make the loan