1. SUPPLEMENTAL GUIDELINES MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE & DISASTER RISK IN THE CLUP

2. INTRODUCTION These Supplemental Guidelines will help local governments formulate climate and disaster risk-sensitive comprehensive land use plans and zoning ordinances that would guide the allocation and regulation of :

3. 1. land use so that exposure and vulnerability of population, infrastructure, economic activities and the environment to natural hazards and climate change can be minimized or even prevented. 2. The resulting improvements in land use planning and zoning processes will strengthen the ability of local governments to achieve their sustainable development objectives given the challenges posed by climate change and natural hazards. INTRODUCTION

4. 3.It seeks to rationalize the allocation of land uses to reduce exposure of people, assets and economic activities; address vulnerabilities by providing safer places to live, sustain livelihood and ensure optimum productivity of natural resources through ecosystem-based management. 3.Also, land use planning is a cost-effective and proactive approach in managing current and INTRODUCTION

5. 5. Comprehensive Land Use Plan is an effective disaster risk reduction instrument which may at the future risks considering the high costs of structural measures to address unplanned spatial development. INTRODUCTION

6. Land use planning can also reduce hazard magnitudes by including ecosystem management approaches, such as rehabilitation of mangrove areas to mitigate the impacts of storm surge and rehabilitation of watersheds to minimize lowland flooding. Lastly, it serves as a framework to guide in the preparation of local level plans (CDP, LDIP, AIP) to implement its DRR-CCA development agenda. INTRODUCTION

7. RATIONALE Addressing Climate and Disaster Risks in the CLUP/CDP 1.Mainstreaming climate and disaster risks in the CLUP involves the generation of risk and vulnerability planning information to supplement the CLUP planning process; 2.It seeks to establish a deeper understanding of natural hazards (frequency of occurrence and magnitude) and climate change impacts that may affect the local territory, the vulnerabilities of the various exposed elements, the magnitude of risks involve in order to identify the pressing development challenges, problems, issues and concerns and the interventions for mitigation and adaptation.

8. RATIONALE Allow decision makers and stakeholders make informed and meaningful decisions in goal formulation, strategy generation and land use policy formulation and development, integrating climate and disaster risks in the CLUP seeks to answer the following: 1. What are the estimated disaster and climate associated risks affecting the locality?

9. RATIONALE 2. What are the highly vulnerable sector? 3. Where are the risk and vulnerable hotspots that need to be addressed? 4. How do natural hazards and climate change impact the existing socio-economic and infrastructure development? 5. Is the preferred development thrust achievable given the risks involved? 6. What are the alternative spatial development spatial strategies that we can pursue?

10. 7. Does the current land use policy framework address the threats of disasters and climate change? 8. Do we need to implement additional development regulations to reduce climate and disaster risks? 9. Do we have enough programs and projects that promote disaster reduction and climate change adaptation. 10. Is there a need to enhance the local institutional capacity/capabilities to support risk reduction and address vulnerabilities RATIONALE

11.  ENABLING ENVIRONMENT RA 9729, also referred to as the Climate Change Act of 2009, serves as the legal framework to systematically integrate the concept of climate change in various phases of policy formulation, development plans, poverty reduction strategies and other development tools and techniques by all agencies and instrumentalities of the government.

12. RA 9729, is later amended through RA 10174 in 2012 which included the provision of People’s Survival Fund. Recognizing the vulnerability of the Philippine Archipelago and its local communities, particularly: 1.The poor 2.Women; and 3.Children to potential dangerous consequences of climate change.

13. The state expressed the need to strengthen, integrate, consolidate and institutionalize government initiatives and achieve coordination in the implementation of plans and programs to address climate change in the context of sustainable development.

14. RA 10121 Approved in 2010, the National Framework Strategy on Climate Change provides the overall strategic direction for climate change adaptation and mitigation. It is anchored on the principles of sustainable development bounded by governance/institutional factors that affect the country’s ability to respond to the potential threats of climate change2. It identified ecosystems, human health, agriculture, human society, water resources, infrastructure and energy as the key sectors where climate change impact severely feel.

15. Enhanced vulnerability and adaptation assessments, integrated ecosystem-based management, water governance and management, climate responsive agriculture, climate-responsive health sector, climate proofing infrastructure, and disaster risk reduction and the adaptation thrusts are to build the adaptive capacities of human communities and increase the resiliency of natural ecosystems. RA 10121

16. It instructs the LGU to mainstream disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in development process such as policy formulation, socio-economic development planning, budgeting and governance, particularly in the areas of government, agriculture, water, energy, health, education, poverty reduction, land use and urban planning, and public infrastructure and housing. RA 10121

17. Comprehensive Land Use Plan Reducing disaster and climate change risks can be achieved through proper management of ecosystems. Ecosystems are complex and go beyond the limits of territorial and political boundaries. In order to achieve meaningful and effective management of ecosystems, disaster risks and climate change, there is a need to emphasize the importance of promoting and establishing inter-LGU/agency cooperation and partnerships for an integrated approach in addressing CCA-DRRM concerns across municipalities/cities.

18. Inter-LGU cooperation hopes to ensure convergence and synergy of policies and facilitate actions in sustainable land and resource management in order to address the threats of disasters and climate change. It therefore suggests the need for complementation of land use plans amongst municipalities/ cities.

19. Linkages of Climate & Disaster Risk Sensitive Comprehensive Land Use Plans with other local plans The CLUP serves as the long-term framework that guides other major plans of the LGUs (i.e. CDP, ELA, LDIP and AIP).The CLUP sets the overall vision, goals and objectives. These should be consistent with the national DRR- CCA strategic priorities and outcomes. Being the guide for physical and sectoral development, the CLUP should articulate the spatial development policies and strategies in addressing climate change and disasters.

20. The planning process utilizes the analysis of existing and future conditions and should integrate climate change and disasters to identify the development needs, land use requirements and translate them into development and land use goals and objectives. The Zoning Ordinance, cognizant of the CLUP, should delineate areas susceptible to hazards and prescribe the land and structural development regulations to ensure the management of risks.

21. Comprehensive Development Plan The Local Development Investment Program (LDIP) is the critical link between the plans and the budget. It is a program to allocate the investible portion of the annual general fund budget for funding the development programs, projects and activities identified in the CLUP and the CDP as part of the program of government identified in the ELA. It has time frame of three (3) years which is further broken down annually through Annual Investment Program (AIP).

22. The LDIP process involves the identification, evaluation and selection of programs and projects to be pursued within the three-year time frame, analysis of the financial performance (past and projected), balancing the investment requirements and available investible fund through fiscal management, and the preparation of the three-year and annual investment plans.

23. Local Development Investment Program (LDIP) The Local Development Investment Program (LDIP) is the critical link between the plans and the budget. It is a program to allocate the investible portion of the annual general fund budget for funding the development programs, projects and activities identified in the CLUP and the CDP as part of the program of government identified in the ELA. It has time frame of three (3) years which is further broken down annually through:

24. Annual Investment Program (AIP). The LDIP process involves the identification, evaluation and selection of programs and projects to be pursued within the three-year time frame, analysis of the financial performance (past and projected), balancing the investment requirements and available investible fund through fiscal management, and the preparation of the three-year and annual investment plans.

25. FUNDAMENTAL CONCEPTS 1. The Concept of Risk Risk is defined as the combination of the probability of an event and its negative consequences. Risk is the expected losses (of lives, persons injured, property damaged and economic activity disrupted) due to a particular hazard for a given area and reference period. The unit of measure of risk could be number of fatality or value of damaged property. Risk is a function of the probability of occurrence of hazards, elements exposed and vulnerability of elements exposed to the hazards, expressed as:

26. F(Risk) = Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability where: Hazard, which is a potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon or human activity that may cause the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation. A hazard can be geological, such as an earthquake or volcanic eruption; it can be meteorological, such as flood and rain-induced landslide.

27. Exposure, which are elements such as people, buildings, infrastructure, the economy and natural environment, that are subject to the impact of specific hazard Vulnerability, which are qualities of the element exposed to withstand the impact of a hazard event; refers to the characteristics of an element exposed to a hazard (i.e. person, road, building, economy) that contributes to the capacity of the exposed elements to resist, cope with, and recover from the impact of natural hazard.

28. Risk & ComponentsConcept Mainstreaming Guidelines Integrating CCA/DRR Risk Annual Loss of lives, annual damage to properties Annual loss of lives, annual damage to properties Risk is measured qualitatively based on the indicative likelihood of occurrence score and a subjective rating assessment on the severity of consequence based on the existing baseline vulnerability attributes of exposed elements. Comparative Matrix of Application of Concept of Risk

29. Hazard A Hazard's destructive potential or degree of hazard is a function of the magnitude, duration, location and timing of the event. Basic data data would be the probability of the occurrence. Probabilistic data must be historically established. This is usually reflected in the hazard maps. Hazard maps do not reflect the probability of occurrence or return period of hazard events. Instead susceptibility or proneness defined as highly susceptible area, moderate or low are reflected in the maps. Each of these areas of susceptibility were assigned return periods. Flood modelling maps were generated, based on PAGASA data and observed historical daily rainfall data. Other hazard maps used are sourced from mandated agencies. Risk & Components Concept Mainstreaming GuidelinesIntegrating CCA/DRR

30. Exposure Pobability density fundtion for population exposure which takes intto account nature of events, and spatial and temporal dimentions are used. Replacement value of structures (based on building permits data). Replacement value based on the cost of crop production from DA Exposure was determined using map overlays of hazards and elements at risk covering population, built-up areas, agriculture, transportation, & critical point facilities (Exposure per type are represented either as area, number of facilities and replacement value. For economic assets, detailed measures of the extent and quality of infrastructure and the economic value of the exposed land and resources are used The Barangay Population count and estimated barangay land area were used to compute for the estimated population density which was then used to estimate the affected persons based on the extent/ area of the hazard per susceptibility class as a proxy variable for exposure. Risk & Components Concept Mainstreaming GuidelinesIntegrating CCA/DRR

31. Vulnerability Elements exposed refers to their intrinsic characteristics that allow them to be damaged or destroyed. The weakness of physical and social systems is usually defined in terms of fragility curves, in which the weakbness are quantified as a function of hazard severity Vulnerability analysis is based on the existing/baseline attributes of the exposed elements. These attributes were described and summarized per barangay which were considered (along with the extent/number of exposed elements) in assigning the severity of consequence (degree of damage) Risk & Components Concept Mainstreaming GuidelinesIntegrating CCA/DRR

32. The Reference Manual on Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation adopted a risk function as the product of the likelihood of occurrence and the severity of consequence, expressed as: F(Risk)6 = Likelihood of Occurrence, Severity of Consequence where: Likelihood of Occurrence, is referred to as the estimated period of time expressed in years, a hazard event is likely to repeat itself. Severity of Consequence, is a measure of the degree of impact, such as injury, death, damage, interruption brought to the sector of concern.

33. 2. The Concept of Vulnerability vulnerability is defined as the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity12.

34. F(Vulnerability) = Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity Exposure is the nature and degree to which a system is exposed to significant climatic variations Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate-related stimuli. The effect may be direct (e.g., a change in crop yield in response to a change in the mean, range, or variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g., damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea level rise).

35. Adaptive capacity which is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. Vulnerability Assessment Is the systematic examination of impacts of climate change and disasters on natural and socio-economic systems 13. It is the key component of climate change adaptation which seeks to establish the elements exposed, describe their intrinsic characteristics that make them sensitive to the climate stimulus, estimate possible direct or indirect impacts. These shall be the basis for identifying the necessary measures for adaptation and mitigation

36. Adaptation the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects, in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In natural systems, the process of adjustment to actual climate and its effects; human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate

37. Mitigation refers to human intervention to address anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all GHG, including ozone- depleting substances and their substitutes

38. CLIMATE AND DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT the two frameworks will be operationalized in the form of assessment tools (C/DRA and CCVA) incorporated as part of the Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment (CDRA). It is intended to determine the key decisions areas for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Both are intended to describe the elements exposed to hazards, identify the underlying factors contributing to sensitivities and vulnerabilities, and assess their adaptive capacities to establish a measure of risks and vulnerabilities. These shall provide the basis for identifying the key decision areas and the possible interventions for mitigation and adaptation.

39. CLIMATE AND DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT Risk in CDRA shall be adjusted to incorporate the concept of adaptive capacity, which is part of the considerations in Vulnerability assessment. To maintain the relationship of the variables of risk, the degree of damage will be a function of exposure and vulnerability The severity of consequence shall incorporate adaptive capacity measured in terms of degree of adaptive capacity to overcome the estimated degree of damage.

41. Where: Risk is the combination of the probability (likelihood of occurrence) of an event and its potential negative consequences (severity of consequence) for a given area and reference period. Hazard shall be expressed as the likelihood of occurrence of hazards as the estimated period of time expressed in years, a hazard event is likely to repeat itself. Exposure shall be expressed as area and/or monetary unit, for social, economic and environmental related property. In terms of population exposure, it shall be expressed as the number of affected individuals or households.

42. Vulnerability shall be considered as the inherent characteristics of exposed elements to withstand or be severely affected by a particular magnitude of the hazard. Degree of damage is the interplay of exposure and vulnerability. It is the estimated direct damages expressed in terms of value or number of severely affected population (fatalities and injuries). Adaptive Capacity are indicators of the ability or capacity of the population and property for long-term adaption which would allow them to overcome the potential degree of indirect impacts.

43. Severity of Consequence is a measure of the potential direct and indirect damages/impacts which factors in the adaptive capacities of the population and property to overcome these damages or impacts.

44. vulnerability in the CCVA shall be considered as the vulnerability of the system to the climate stimulus as a result of climate change.

45. Vulnerability the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Exposure shall be similar to the CDRA and shall be expressed as area and/or monetary unit, for social, economic and environmental related property. In terms of population exposure, it shall be expressed as the number of affected individuals or households exposed to the climate stimulus (hazard).

46. Sensitivity in the vulnerability assessment framework shall be considered similar to vulnerability in CDRA which represents the intrinsic characteristics of exposed elements to withstand the magnitude and climate stimulus. Degree impact is the interplay between the exposed elements and their sensitivities to the climate stimulus. It is the estimated direct and indirect impacts expressed in terms of damages, loss in productivity and quality to resources, and mortality, morbidity and impacts to the well-being of individuals.

47. Mainstreaming Framework Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment (CDRA) Process The climate risk assessment process seeks to determine the level of risks and vulnerabilities of the municipality/city to climate related hazards and potential impacts of climate change. The information derived from the process shall enrich the CLUP formulation process, particularly in enhancing the situational analysis, defining development challenges, defining climate risk- sensitive vision, goals, objectives and strategies, as well as in defining possible interventions to reduce risks from potential climate change impacts. The climate risk assessment process follows seven (7) major steps presented in

48. Step 1. Collect and organize climate information This step will result in a summary of climate information available for the local government unit. This is not limited to climate type but more importantly information on projected changes in climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, and extreme events for specific future time horizon (e.g., 2020 or 2050). These will help establish if the LGU will be potentially affected by climate change, or there are already indications that climate change is already happening. This will also include historical trends on seasonal rainfall and temperature; one-day rainfall frequency; typhoon paths; to establish historical trends on the frequency of climate related hazards and how frequency of these hazards may change due to climate change

49. Step 2. Collect and organise climate hazards information This step involves identification and characterisation of hazards affecting the local government unit and an inventory of historical climate hazard and disaster events. For each hazard and disaster event, information on intensity and magnitude, including scale of damages (i.e., agriculture, houses, infrastructure), and how it affected the population (number of affected population, injured and fatalities). Include information on the geographic extent of the hazards, and the areas affected by disaster events, if possible, down to purok level, or at the very least aggregate the data on the barangay level.

50. Step 3. Scope the potential impacts of climate hazards and climate change on the LGU This step summarizes the initial scoping of potential hazards, including the associated impacts of climate change, affecting the locality. These are based from the significant findings from the your initial scoping of climate trends, climate change, and compilation of hazard maps. This involves the identification of the various climate stimuli, derived from climate trends, climate change projections and hazards that will likely affect the municipality and the generation of impact chains to identify the possible direct and indirect that may likely affect the various development sectors.

53. Step 4. Exposure Database Development The Exposure Database provides the baseline information pertaining to the elements at risk. It shall provide the location, vulnerability/sensitivity and adaptive capacity attributes of the exposed elements which are necessary information when conducting a climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) and climate and disaster risk assessment (CDRA). Ideally, the exposure database should be map based, indicating the approximate field location of the various elements and will be the bases in estimating the exposed elements expressed in terms of area, number and/or unit cost. Other area/element based information should also be gathered to establish the sensitivity/vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the exposed elements which will be the bases for estimating the level of risks and vulnerabilities.

54. Step 5. Conduct a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (CCVA) The Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (CCVA) is a tool which assesses the vulnerabilities of the locality to the various climate related stimuli. The tool is qualitative in approach and hopes to determine the level of vulnerability of identified areas or sectors of interest. Vulnerability shall be based on the extent of exposure, and an analysis of the sensitivities and adaptive capacities. This will inform the identification of decision areas and be the subject of further detailing for the identification of area specific planning implications and policy interventions.

55. Step 6. Conduct a Climate/Disaster Risk Assessment (C/DRA) Climate/Disaster Risk Assessment (C/DRA) is a methodology to determine the nature and extent of risk by analyzing potential hazards and evaluating existing conditions of vulnerability that together could potentially harm exposed people, property, services, livelihood and the environment on which they depend. Risk assessments with associated risk mapping include: a review of the technical characteristics of hazards such as their location, intensity, frequency and probability; the analysis of exposure and vulnerability including the physical, social, health, economic and environmental dimensions; and the evaluation of the effectiveness of prevailing and alternative coping capacities in respect to likely risk scenarios.

56. Step 7. Evaluate Risks and Vulnerabilities Risk and vulnerability evaluation deals with how risk and vulnerabilities are viewed and the acceptable level of tolerance. Risk and vulnerability perception may vary between individuals including the thresholds they are willing to accept. These areas shall be further prioritized based on the perceived level of acceptable and tolerable risks and vulnerabilities of local leaders and communities. Once the planning areas are prioritized, LGUs will be tasked to analyze the spatial development issues and concerns, and enumerate the possible policy interventions to address it.

57. Mainstreaming Climate and Disaster Risks in the CLUP/CDP Second is the mainstreaming process wherein key findings in the climate and disaster risk assessment provide a climate and disaster risk perspective in analyzing the planning environment. This will allow decision makers make informed decisions during the CLUP formulation process which covers inter-intra sectoral profiling and analysis, goal formulation, strategy generation, land use policy formulation and zoning. The mainstreaming process hopes to produce a risk sensitive land use plan intended to provide the necessary spatial based interventions to reduce and manage climate and disaster risks.

58. STEPS: Getting organized and Identifying Stakeholders The CDRA can identify the key stakeholders who may either benefit or adversely affected by the various proposed risk reduction and management policy and strategy interventions should be engaged to participate throughout the CLUP planning process. Also, the CDRA and CDRA provide the opportunity for LGUs to solicit the assistance of the stakeholder.

59. Setting the Vision Mainstreaming climate and disaster risks in the CLUP starts with the enhancement of the vision statement by integrating climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction and management principles in describing the ideal state of locality in terms of the people as individuals and society, local economy, built and natural environment, and local governance. Descriptors should put emphasis on the principles of adaptation and risk reduction such as safe, risk-resilient, and enhancing adaptive and coping capacities. The vision shall provide the overall guide to the succeeding steps of the CLUP planning process

60. Situational Analysis The climate and disaster risk profile provides the climate and disaster risk perspectives for a deeper analysis of the planning environment. The emphasis is on the implications of climate change and hazards, to the various development sectors/sub-sectors (i.e. demography/social, economic, infrastructure and utilities) and the land use framework. It shall allow climate and disaster risk concerns to be incorporated in the identification issues, concerns and problems and ensure that identified policy interventions both address the potential impacts of climate change and hazards and risks to promote sustained sectoral development. The results of the CDRA and CCVA, along with other sectoral studies shall provide the opportunity for a more integrated approach in the practice of land use planning.

62. Setting the Goals and Objectives Informed of the development implications, issues, concerns, and problems brought about by climate and disaster risks, the municipality/city should be able to enhance its goals, objectives and success indicators. The city/municipality recognizes risk reduction and management as prerequisite to sustainable development, the guiding principles behind the physical growth of the locality, and support and compliment sectoral/sub-sectoral development.

63. Development Thrust and Spatial Strategy Climate and disaster risk information allows decision makers and stakeholders an opportunity to revisit its current development thrust, identify possible alternative development thrusts, evaluate and select the preferred development thrust that accounts for the current and potential implications of climate and disaster risks.

64. Risk Sensitive Land Use Planning Mainstreaming climate and disaster risks in enhancing the land use plan involves the translation of the climate and risk management options articulated in the CDRA and CCRA and the generated risk sensitive spatial strategy. These are further detailed and applied in land demand and supply balancing (i.e. risk considerations supply augmentation strategies); land use decision mapping; identification of risk sensitive land use polices governing the four land use policy areas; and identification of climate change adaptation and risk reduction and management related PPAs.

65. Settlement land use policies may include, but not limited to, building design regulations (i.e. structural design specifications, height restrictions), density control measures, retrofitting of identified high risk structures, relocation, land banking/acquisition, tax incentives/disincentives, public disclosure, preservation of open spaces; shared responsibilities of property owners and local government in conducting geologic/hydrologic technical studies/investigations; and implementing hazard mitigation measures to reduce hazard exposure.

66. For critical infrastructure and lifelines, policies may include protection of critical point facilities through site selection (locating in relatively safe areas), applying the concept service redundancy to ensure continued area access and provision of social and economic support services, strict imposition of building and structural design regulations for critical emergency services relative to the type, magnitude and frequency of the hazard/s.

67. Furthermore, The river basin approach provides an added dimension in land use planning. Applying the river-basin approach reduces the possibility of risk reduction efforts in one location and increasing the risks in another. An integrated approach to risk reduction and management is presumed to be more effective and sustainable than uncoordinated risk reduction interventions across municipalities/cities and areas. This approach justifies the need to promote and encourages inter-LGU partnerships to establish synergy and convergence of land use related policy and strategy interventions in addressing common/ shared risks across municipalities/cities.

68. Risk Sensitive Zoning Ordinance Apart from the hazard prone areas (hazard overlay zoning and provisions for regulation), risk information allows the identification of priority risk management districts/zones which can be described as existing high risk settlement/urban or production zones which requires attention and priority action. Special development provisions can be imposed in such cases. Zoning provisions may range from development restrictions (no-build provision, managed retreat) in identified high susceptible hazard areas and provisions that encourages structural resiliency by imposing strict compliance to structural design regulations (building and structural code), or other provisions such as cost sharing agreements between the LGU and the property owner in pursuing hazard related technical studies can also be incorporated.

69. Workshop No. 1. Collect and organize climate information This step involves collecting data and reviewing important climate information relevant to the local government unit. Key climate variables to collect are temperature, precipitation and extreme events. The basic source for climate information is the Climate Change in the Philippines publication of PAGASA.

70. To arrive at values of seasonal mean temperature and seasonal rainfall in 2020 and 2050, the projections are added to the observed values. Thus for Misamis Oriental, the projected values in 2020 are: a. DJF mean temperature = (25.40C + 1.00C) = 26.40C b. DJF rainfall = {442.5mm + 442.5(4.6%)mm} = (442.5 + 20.4)mm = 462.9 mm c. Number of days with Tmax > 350C during the period 2006-2035 = 4539 d. Number of dry days in Cagayan de Oro during the 2006-2035 period (centered at 2020) = 6413 e. Number of days with rainfall > 150 mm in Cagayan de Oro during the 2006-2035 period (centered at 2020) is 13.

73. Workshop No. 2: Collect, organise climate hazards information

77. Analyze previous disasters

78. Workshop No. 3. Scoping the potential impacts of disasters and climate change Adaptation to climate change involves a very broad range of measures directed at reducing vulnerability to a range of climatic stimuli (changes in means, variability, and extremes). It is therefore important to first identify the potential impacts and the spatial manifestations of climate change. Impacts is used to refer to the effects on natural and human systems of physical events, of disasters, and of climate change, which can be illustrated through impact chains. Climate impact chains are general cause-effect relations that describe how, in principle, climatic changes are expected to cause impacts on the sectors of concern

82. Workshop 4. Prepare a Climate Change Hazard Inventory

83. Workshop No. 5 Exposure Database Development Task 1. Prepare the Population exposure maps and attribute information The population exposure maps provide the spatial location/distribution and the intrinsic characteristics of the population. Several methods can be employed in the preparation of the population exposure map. LGUs can utilize the CBMS database, or National Statistics Office Census to populate the minimum exposure and sensitivity/vulnerability and adaptive capacity attributes.

84. Location of population can be based form population density and the estimated residential areas affected by the hazard. The exposure will be expressed as the number of affected individuals with the supporting attribute information. For this guideline, listed below are the suggested parameters (depending on the data availability at the local level) to describe the exposure, sensitivity/vulnerability and adaptive capacity. LGUs can further include other parameters depending on unique characteristics in their locality.

88. Task 2. Prepare the Property exposure maps

91. Workshop 6. Conduct a Climate Change vulnerability assessment

92. Workshop 6. Conduct a sensitivity analysis

94. Task 4. Enumerate the possible impacts and rate the degree of impact In the vulnerability framework, impact is a function of exposure and sensitivity, the higher the exposure and sensitivity of the system, the higher the potential impacts. Based on the estimated exposure and the degree of sensitivities of the exposed units, identify and describe the various impacts. If data is available, support the impact analysis using past damage/disaster data. Based on the identified impacts, qualitatively determine the degree of impact using the suggested rating scale. Refer to the sample sensitivity and impact analysis table.

98. Task 5. Evaluate the Adaptive Capacity

100. Task 6. Complete the Assessment: How Vulnerable are you to Climate Change

103. Step 6. Conduct a Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment

107. Sub task 1. Determine Population Exposure

109. Sub task 2. Determine Property Exposure

113. Task 3. Analyze Vulnerability and Estimate Degree of Damage Degree of Damage = Exposure*Vulnerability

116. Severity of Consequence = Degree of Damage x Adaptive Capacity

117. SEVERITY OF CONSEQUENCE

118. Sub task 2. Review the results of the Consequence Analysis Task 5. Risk Estimation Risk is defined as the combination of the probability of an event and its negative consequences. This step deals with the estimation of the level of risk on the various exposed and vulnerable units and integrates the concept of likelihood of occurrence (probability of the hazard occurring). Risk mapping should be able to depict/indicate risk areas as the which shall form the bases for the risk evaluation step (identifying decision areas and area prioritization based on the level of acceptable risk). In the context of this guideline, risk is a function of the likelihood of occurrence and the severity of consequence. Risk is operationalized using the function:

119. Risk = Likelihood of Occurrence x Severity of Consequence

121. Sub Task 2. Reclassify the risk scores into risk categories

122. Sub Task 3. Prepare Risk Maps

124. Task 6. Identify the decision areas Overlay the various risk maps to identify the priority decision areas/zones. Identify area clusters where the estimated risk are categorized as high to moderate. A composite map combining the risk categories can be done to guide the identification of decision zones. When preparing the composite map/s, retain the highest risk category per zone from the computed risk estimates. A sample risk composite map is presented below.

125. Task 7. Summarize Risk Assessment

126. Step 7. Evaluating Risk and Vulnerability Task 1. Identify decision areas for evaluation Overlay the various vulnerability and risk decision areas to identify the composite major decision areas. Identify area clusters where the estimated risks and vulnerabilities are categorized as high to moderate. A composite map combining the risk and vulnerability categories can be done to guide the identification of major decision areas. For easy referencing, place area names or codes and provide a brief summary of the areas.

127. Task 2. Present and summarize the significant findings for the identified major decision areas Once the major decision areas are identified, organize your findings and prepare a consolidated risk and vulnerability assessment matrix. Briefly summarize the significant findings from the risk and vulnerability matrices generated during the CDRA and CCVA (refer to sample risk evaluation matrix)

128. Task 3. Prioritize the decision areas Prioritize the decision areas and assign a prioritization score of 1-3 (i.e. Low, Moderate, High). LGUs can organize workshop sessions and seek the participation of local stakeholders and members of the Planning and Development Council (C/MPDC). Participants will be asked to provide their area prioritization scores based on their perceived acceptable level of risks and vulnerabilities and the magnitude of interventions required to address it. High and moderate priority decision areas can be the subject of further detailed investigation to identify specific interventions for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction and management.

129. Task 4. Identify the development implications Assess the development planning implications drawn from the results of the CCVA and CDRA. Expound on the possible future scenario if the Municipality/City adopts a “business as usual” strategy given the identified risks and vulnerabilities. Implications can be development issues, concerns and problems which needs to be addressed moving forward.

130. Task 5. Identify the various policy interventions Based on the implications identified, identify the possible policy interventions that the LGU should pursue to address such the various issues. These can be in the form legislation-spatial based policies or programs, projects and activities to reduce exposure, sensitivity/vulnerability and adaptive capacity.

134. Formulating a Risk Sensitive Land Use Plan Setting the Vision

138. Situational Analysis Physical/Natural Features Profiling Understanding Hazards Historical Damage Statistics Scoping Sectoral Impacts Adjustments to Land demand projections Policy interventions for risk reduction and management options

143. Selection of the preferred spatial strategy Risk Avoidance or elimination – This strategy involves removing the risk trigger by locating new expansion areas outside of potential hazard susceptible areas. This can also be achieved by encouraging open spaces and establishment and extension of buffer easements (i.e. coastal, river). However, it has to be noted that nationally prescribed easement regulations can be extended to factor in the possible increase in frequency and severity of hazards due to climate change (i.e. storm surge, floods, sea-level rise). Furthermore, strict protection of environmentally critical areas and key bio-diversity areas (designating them as protection areas) can also be a strategy of avoidance.

144. Risk Mitigation – This strategy can be implemented if the strategy of avoidance/elimination can not be applied in the establishment of new expansion areas in relatively safe areas and address current risks associated with existing built-up and production areas. Measures for mitigation (or adaptation) can be applied to reduce potential risks/vulnerabilities by changing physical characteristics or operations of a system or the element exposed to hazards. It can take on the following subcategories:

145. Mitigation - instituting measures so that the hazard does not turn into a disaster, or at the very least reduce the impact of the hazard through structural measures such as imposing building design regulations to enhance structural resistance/resilience to hazards and implementing engineering based measures (i.e. flood control, sea-wall, slope stabilization). However, such measures (which often entail significant costs) will be dependent on the current and future capacities of the LGU and the private sector. Non-structural mitigation, to some extent, can also be considered as mitigation measures, such as the rehabilitation of upland and coastal forests to reduce hazards (i.e. renewed upland forest cover can reduce magnitude and extent of floods in low-land areas) and changing production techniques (climate sensitive agricultural production practices).

146. Duplication or redundancy - increasing system sustainability by providing back-up support for systems or facilities that may become nonfunctional/ operational after the hazard impact. This can be applied by establishing redundant access/linkage/distribution systems (i.e. establishment of alternate transportation routes, looping and back-up systems for water distribution, establishing alternative point facilities such as schools and hospitals).

147. Risk sharing or risk transfer – is another option that can be pursued to justify the location of built and unbuilt environments in hazard prone areas. It is the shifting of the risk bearing responsibility to another party, often times involving the use of financial and economic measures particularly insurance systems to cover and pay for future damages. However, this strategy should consider the current and future financial capacities of the exposed elements in accessing these instruments.

148. Risk retention or acceptance – this is the “do- nothing” scenario where risks are fully accepted and arrangements are made to pay for financial losses with own resources. However, this strategy can only be applied if current or future exposed elements will have the resource capacity to carry the burden of recovering from risks.

149. Upon selection of the preferred development thrust, preparation of the structure plan map can proceed. The structure plan map is a schematic representation of the chosen spatial strategy. It indicates the approximate location of areas for settlement development, location of key production systems, areas for protection and the various linkage systems. In the context of DRR-CCA, in the preparation of the structure plan map, emphasis should be given to:

151. Land Demand and Supply Balancing

152. Structure Plan will show the following: Location of growth areas or growth nodes General location of conservation or protection areas General location of proposed major infrastructure projects Direction of urban expansion Proposed circulation network/system Location of other production or development areas

154. LAND USE POLICIES: There shall be no makeshifts or temporary structures in nature within the designated tourism areas. All the structures located within the tourists areas should be aesthetically pleasant that complements with nature. Nature should be primarily considered in all types of development.

155. Thank u & Good luck! END ?