1. Developing Next Generation Access Networks Challenges in the SEE Region
Jaroslaw K. Ponder
Strategy and Policy Unit
International Telecommunication Union
The 1st Southeastern Europe Broadband 2006 Conference & Expo
( ) April 2006, Belgrade, Serbia and Montenegro
Note: The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU. Jaroslaw K. Ponder can be contacted at

2. Agenda Concept of IP-enabled NGNs and next generation access networks
Techno-economic analysis and implications for access networks
Worldwide and regional trends
Challenges for the SEE region
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3. Concept of IP-enabled NGNs and next generation access networks
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4. NGN versus NGAN ITU-T SG 13: Rec. Y.2001 What is different?
A NGN is a packet-based network able to provide telecommunication services and able to make use of multiple broadband, QoS-enabled transport technologies and in which service-related functions are independent from underlying transport-related technologies.
It enables unfettered access for users to networks and to competing service providers and/or services of their choice.
It supports generalized mobility which will allow consistent and ubiquitous provision of services to users.
What is different?
Multimedia
Generalized mobility
Convergence
Integrity
Multi-layer orientation
Open character
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5. NGN: New environment IP-based Networks Access Applications
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Source : Telefonica 2005

6. What drives NGN development?
Better financial performance
Revenue growth
Margin protection
Reduced OPEX and CAPEX
Operational issues
Obsolescence & modernization
Reliability, resilience & quality
Capacity & scalability
Simpler and faster provision of service
Competitive issues
New service roll-out/substitution & service differentiation
Market share growth & protection
Convergence of voice, data and IT enables provision of new offerings in packages
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7. NGN impact Convergence Market structure Market potential
Now
Convergence
Market structure
Market potential
Business models
Price strategies
Sell strategies
Customer preferences
Customer protection
Regulatory model
What next…
Service A
Service B
Service C
Net. A
Net. B
Net. C
Future
Services A, B, C
IP Platform (QoS)
Access Networks
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8. New requirements Up-grade of the core networks
Expansion of next generation access networks
Fix Mobile Convergence
High investment programmes
Very high investment risk
Unknown business models
Unknown regulatory proceedings
Regulatory holydays under discussion
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9. Next Generation Access Networks
Fixed
xDSL
Cable TV
PLC
FTTx
Wireless
Mobile infrastructures; 2G to 3G and beyond 3G
WiFi and WiMAX
Satellite
Digital broadcast infrastructures
Wireless Mesh networks
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10. Service Driven Next Generation Access Networks
100
Peer to Peer
Upstream / (Mb/s) 2
Local web server teleworking
0.6
Video preview Advanced videophony
0.2
Broadband Video Telephony Video Games
0.06
Fixed voice/ Fax / Dial-up
TV VoD
Interactive TV
Broadband + Multi VoD
HDTV
Broadband + Multi HDTV
0.06
0.6 2 10 35
10 April 2006
Downstream / (Mb/s)
Note: Adopted from TPSA

11. Service Driven Next Generation Access Networks
100
FTTx
Peer to Peer
Fixed BWA 2
VDSL
Upstream / (Mb/s)
Local web server teleworking
0.6
ADSL 2+
0.2
ADSL
0.06
Broadband + Multi VoD
HDTV
TV / VoD Interactive TV
Broadband + Multi HDTV
Mobile Broadband
0.06
0.6 2 10 35
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Downstream / (Mb/s)
Note: Adopted from TPSA

12. Life of Next Generation Access Technologies
ADSL
GPRS
GSM
EDGE
WiFi
UMTS
ADSL2
WiMAX
Life cycle of next generation access technologies is relative and depend on the regional or country particularities
ADSL2+
VDSL
VDSL2
FTTh
WiMax
Emerging
Growing
Matured
Declining
time
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13. Worldwide and regional trends
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14. Broadband access worldwide (2005)5 10 15 20 25 30
United States
Sweden
Norway
Japan
Finland
Belgium
Israel
Taiwan, China
Canada
Switzerland
Iceland
Denmark
Netherlands
Hong Kong, China
Korea (Rep.)
DSL
Cable modem
Other
21.3
24.9
19.8
18.9
18.3
17.9
17.7
16.5
16.3
15.6
15.3
15.0
14.9
14.7
12.8
Broadband penetration by technology, top 15 economies,
DSL and Cable prevail over other technologies worldwide
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15. Few countries started development of FTTx infrastructure.
FTTx in Europe (2005)
Few countries started development of FTTx infrastructure.
Home / Building passed
European FTTx subscribers
Source: IDATE (2005)
The customer base is still very small but grows very fast in most of leading economies
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Source: IDATE (2005)

16. Broadband access in SEE (2005)
Broadband penetration by technology in SEE, 2005
0.68%
Turkey
Croatia
0.60%
Romania
0.41%
Broadband penetration rates of SEE leading countries do not exceed 1%
Bosnia & Herzegovina
0.12%
The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
0.12%
Serbia & Montenegro - Kosovo
0.11%
Bulgaria
0.08%
DSL
Serbia & Montenegro - Serbia
0.02%
Cable modem
Serbia & Montenegro - Montenegro
0.0%
Other
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
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17. Broadband subscription price, (cheapest plan sampled, monthly, US$, top 75, 2005)
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18. Broadband prices per 100 kbit/s (top 75, 2005)
The broadband prices for in selected SEE countries are very high and very high and not affordable for average user
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19. Wireless technologies
Number of cellular users per 100 inhabitants
In 2004 in Romania 279’408 users of 3G, 2.7% of all mobile subscribers
(16 position) 3G
In 2004 Moldova 3’000 users of 3G, 0.4% of all mobile subscribers
(32 position)
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20. Measuring Opportunities
Digital Opportunity Index
DOI
Opportunity
Utilization
Infrastructure
1/3
1/3
1/3
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21. Digital Opportunity Index
percentage of population covered by mobile cellular telephony
internet users per 100 inhabitants
Utilization
Opportunity
mobile cellular tariffs as a percentage of per capita income
ratio of broadband internet subscribers to internet subscribers
DOI
internet access tariffs as a percentage of per capita income
ratio of broadband mobile subscribers to mobile internet subscribers
Proportion of households with fixed line telephone
proportion of households with a computer
mobile cellular subscribers per 100 inhabitants
mobile internet subscribers per 100 inhabitants
proportion of households with Internet access at home
Infrastructure
Infrastructure
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22. Digital Opportunity Index in developed economies and CEE
DOI
Leaders: Korea, Hong Kong and Japan
CEE: High opportunities but low utilization
Mobile component and broadband
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23. Digital Opportunity Index in South Eastern Europe
Infrastructure
Utilization
DOI
Estonia
0.94
0.59
0.19
0.58
Slovenia
0.97
0.48
0.17
0.54
Czech Rep.
0.93
0.42
0.23
0.53
Malta
0.33
0.27
0.51
Cyprus
0.43
0.12
Croatia
0.92
0.52
0.1
Slovak Rep.
0.14
0.5
Greece
0.06
0.47
Hungary
0.4
Latvia
0.88
0.37
0.46
Poland
0.36
0.08
Lithuania
0.34
0.09
Turkey
0.89
0.38
0.05
0.44
Bulgaria
0.72
0.31
Bosnia
0.86
0.2
0.02
Serbia and Montenegro
0.74
0.24
0.04
Rumania
0.56
0.07
0.29
Macedonia
0.64
0.03
Albania
0.01
DOI in SEE
Leaders: Croatia, Turkey, Bulgaria
Special Cases: Romania, Macedonia, Albania
CEE: High opportunities but low utilization
SEE: Low opportunities High opportunities but low utilization
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Note 1: DOI results calculated on different dataset as results presented on the previous slide
Note 2: Calculated on base of 2004 data

24. DOI in selected SEE Countries
Note: Calculated on base of 2004 data
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25. DOI in selected SEE Countries
Note: Calculated on base of 2004 data
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26. Challenges for SEE countries
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27. Challenges for SEE Countries
Definition of long term goals of the regulatory policy; privatization process
Regulatory reform and harmonization
Promotion of pro-competitive policy and focus on dynamic aspects
Balance between service based and infrastructure based competition
Efficient and workable unbundling policy
Optimal spectrum management
New approaches relevant for IP-enabled NGNs
10 April 2006

28. Thank you very much for your attention!
Jaroslaw K. Ponder
International Telecommunication Union
Strategy and Policy Unit
Tel:
Fax:
We are building global information society together!
10 April 2006

29. Resources
Full version of this presentation and others focusing on NGN:
NGN regulatory and policy resources: ngn-policy-regulatory-resources.html
ITU activities on NGN:
10 April 2006

30. International Telecommunication Union
We all build the Information Society together!
10 April 2006

31. ITU - International Telecommunication Union
The oldest specialized UN agency with more than 140 years of experience in communication sector
Headquarters in Geneva plus regional offices
ITU staff: more than 750 from more than 80 countries
189 member states, more than 640 sector members
ITU Agenda for Change
Structure of the ITU
ITU-T – Telecom Standardization
ITU-R – Radio-communications
ITU-D – Development Bureau
10 April 2006

32. ITU – International Telecommunication Union
10 April 2006

33. ITU’s Strategy and Policy Unit (SPU)
New Initiatives Programme
Digital Bridges (2005)
Ubiquitous Network Societies (2005)
Today’s Networks Tomorrow (2005)
What Rules for IP-enabled NGNs? (2006)
Digital Transformations in the Information Society (2006)
Regulatory Environment for Future Mobile Multimedia Services (2006)
Many other activities…
10 April 2006