1. Biofuels Development Status and Potentials in Major Countries
Michael Wang
Center for Transportation Research
Argonne National Laboratory
Oct. 10, 2006

2. A Complete, Robust Way Of Evaluating A Fuel’s Effects Is To Compare the Fuel With Those To Be Displaced

3. Accurate Ethanol Energy Analysis Must Account for Increased Productivity in Farming Over Time
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Bushels/lb. Fertilizer ?
Precision
farming, etc.?
U.S. Corn Output Per Pound of Fertilizer
Has Risen by 70% in The Past 35 Years
Based on historical USDA data; results are 3-year moving averages

4. Improved Technology Has Reduced Energy Use and Operating Costs in Corn Ethanol Plants
From Argonne’s discussions with ethanol plant designers, USDA data, and other reported data

5. The Type of Energy, As Well As the Amount of Energy, Is important in Addressing Energy Effects of Ethanol
Btu required for 1 Btu available at fuel pump
Fossil Btu = 1.23
Energy in the Fuel
Petroleum Btu = 1.1
Fossil Btu = 0.74
This slide summarizes the energy required to produce gasoline and ethanol.
Only a small amount of petroleum and a similar amount of coal or natural gas is consumed in the process of making gasoline. The overall conversion is nominally 81% efficient. The fuel-to-petroleum ratio in this case is 0.9. This ratio is the amount of energy in fuel (gasoline in this case) delivered to the end user divided by the amount of energy in crude oil and energy in process fuels required to produce the finished fuel product (gasoline in this case). A ratio of less than 1.0 simply means that this is not an option for reducing our dependence on petroleum.
For ethanol, the energy analysis depends on whether the ethanol is made from corn or cellulosic biomass.
For corn ethanol, the largest source of energy input is the corn itself. Corn accounts for roughly 60% of the total energy input; the energy in corn comes from solar energy during photosynthesis of corn plant growth. About 30% of energy input is from coal or natural gas used to provide heat and power for the conversion. Less than 10% of the total energy input comes from petroleum to power the farm equipment, vehicles, and/or trains. The overall efficiency is 57%. The fuel-to-petroleum ratio is roughly 10; which means 10 btus of corn ethanol requires only about 1 btu of petroleum. This makes corn ethanol a very effective option for reducing our dependence on petroleum. This chart illustrates that although corn ethanol requires a fair amount of fossil energy input, most of it is in the form of coal or natural gas, not petroleum.
In the case of cellulosic ethanol, the portion of energy coming from biomass increases dramatically; the energy in biomass comes from solar energy during photosynthesis of biomass growth. This is because the lignin portion of the biomass is used to supply all the heat and power for the biorefinery, which almost eliminates the need for coal or natural gas. As with corn, the largest source of energy required is the energy in the cellulosic biomass itself. In this case, the biomass accounts for roughly 90% of the total energy input. The other 10% of energy input is mainly petroleum products. The overall efficiency is 45%, and the fuel-to-petroleum ratio remains close to 10. Cellulosic ethanol is also a very effective option for reducing our dependence on petroleum.
The key message is that ethanol is a very effective option for reducing our dependence on petroleum, regardless of whether it is made from corn or cellulosic ethanol.
Another important message is that petroleum refining is a very mature technology. The conversion technology has benefited from more than a century of improvements. Corn ethanol technology used today is far more efficient than what was used 20 years ago, and it is still improving. Cellulosic ethanol is not even a commercial process. The efficiency reported here is based on technology projection of future commercial cellulosic ethanol plants. This process efficiency can and will improve as the technology improves and free-market competition drives the industry toward higher and higher overall conversion efficiency.
For any fuel, delivered energy will always be less than total energy input. But as technologies mature, this efficiency can be expected to continuously improve, very substantially in the early years of commercialization.
From this chart, one should realize the type of energy, as well as the amount of energy, is important in addressing energy effects of different fuel products.
Fossil Btu < 0.1
Petroleum Btu = 0.1
Petroleum Btu = 0.1

6. Most Recent Studies Show Positive Net Energy Balance for Corn Ethanol
Wang
GREET w/Pimentel
Assumptions
Energy balance here is defined as Btu content a gallon of ethanol minus fossil energy used to produce a gallon of ethanol

7. Though Electricity Requires a Large Amount of Fossil Energy Input, There Is No Substitute
Coal Mining
Coal
Transportation NG
Processing
Transmission
Recovery
Diesel Fuel
Electricity
LPG, NGLs
Electricity Generation
Electricity Transmission
and Distribution (8% loss)
1 mm Btu of Electricity
at Wall Outlets
Uranium Ore Recovery
Petroleum Recovery
Uranium
Petroleum
Uranium Ore
Other
Products
Residual Oil
Uranium Enrichment
Petroleum Refinery
Refinery Gas
Uranium Fuel Transportation
Residual Oil Transportation
U.S. Electricity Generation:
2.34 mm Btu Fossil Energy Input

8. Energy in Different Fuels Can Have Very Different Qualities
Increase in Energy Quality
Fossil Energy Ratio (FER) = energy in fuel/fossil energy input
10.31

9. The Role of Biofuels Is Affected by Land Availability and Oil Use in Individual Countries
Country
Land Area,103 km2
Population, Million
Arable Land, 103 km2
Arable Land km2
per 103 people
Oil Use, mil. barrels a day
USA
9,161
296
1,752
5.92
20.0
China
9,326
1,306
1,436
1.10
6.3
Japan
374
127 46
0.36
5.6
Germany
349 82
118
1.44
2.7
India
2,973
1,080
1,617
1.50
2.3
Canada
9,093 32
451
14.09
2.2
Brazil
8,457
186
588
3.16
2.1
France
545 60
183
3.05
The U.K.
241 57
0.95
1.7
Spain
499 40
130
3.25
1.5
Thailand
511 65
150
2.31
0.9
Australia
7,617 20
24.95
0.8
Pakistan
778
162
216
1.33
0.4
Sweden
410 9 27
3.00

10. Intermediate Products Can Be Produced from Various Feedstocks via Various Technologies

11. Bio-Fuels Can Be Produced from Intermediate Products with Various Technologies

12. Feedstocks for Biofuel Production Vary Among Countries
Grain starch to ethanol
Corn in U.S., China, Canada
Wheat in Europe, Australia, and Canada
Sugar crops to ethanol
Sugarcane in Brazil, India, and Thailand
Sugar beets in Europe
Cellulosic biomass to ethanol
Managed biomass such as trees and grass
Crop residues such as corn stover, wheat straw, rice straw, sugarcane bagasse
Forest wastes
Municipal solid waste
Oilseed crops to biodiesel
Soybeans in U.S.
Rapeseeds in Europe
Palm oil and other tropical oilseed crops in tropical countries
Waste cooking oil
Animal fats

13. Liquid Biofuels Can Be Used in Vehicles at Low- or High-Level Blends
Low-level blends of ethanol/gasoline can be used in gasoline vehicles without vehicle modifications
E5 in Canada and Australia
E3 in Japan
E6-E10 in U.S.
E10 in China and Thailand
E25 in Brazil
Low-level and high-level blends of biodiesel/diesel can be used in diesel vehicles without vehicle modifications
B2-B20 in different countries
B100 could be used
Flexible-fuel vehicles (FFVs) for E0-E85 require vehicle modifications

14. No.1 Ethanol Consumption Country with 4.2 billion gallons in 2005
U.S. Corn Ethanol:
No.1 Ethanol Consumption Country with 4.2 billion gallons in 2005

15. Source: Renewable Fuels Association
U.S. Fuel Ethanol Production Has Experienced Large Increases, and the Trend Will Continue
2005 Energy Bill requirement
Actual Use
Source: Renewable Fuels Association

16. A Large Number of E85 FFVs Are in U.S. Fleet
Obtain fuel economy credits since 1993
>5 million cars and trucks in use in 2005
But they are powered virtually with gasoline

17. General Motors Corporation’s E85 FFV Vehicle Production for U.S.
Forecast Production
Approx. 1,500,000
E85 FFV Trucks
produced through MY

18. Brazilian Sugarcane Ethanol:
No.2 Ethanol Consumption Country with ~4 Billion Gallons in 2005

19. Brazil Is the Largest Sugarcane Producing Country
Humid equatorial
Dry winter/humid summer tropical
Semi-arid tropical
Humid coastal
Humid subtropical

20. Brazil Has the Lowest Production Cost for Sugar
Production costs in Brazil reached 100 US$/ton in 2005
Sugar Production Cost
Estimated Cost (US$/Ton in Dec/00)
Sugar Cane
Production
(Mt) 2002
22,7
5,4
2,6
19,0
2,3
6,6
5,1
7,3
10,3
1,5
0,9
100
From Rainach (2006) %

21. Brazil’s Low Sugar Production Cost Is Due to a Combination of Factors
Cuba
India
Australia
Brazil
cost (US$/Ton)
283
248
204
100
WATER
LIGHT - TEMPERATURE
USABLE LAND
LABOR COST
SCALE OF PRODUCTION
GENETICS
AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGY
STRONG
WEAK
From Rainach (2006)

22. Brazil Now Uses About 4 Billion Gallons of Sugarcane Ethanol A Year

23. Yield of EtOH/Ha Has Increased Three Times in the Last 25 Years to 6,000 L/Ha (1,585 gal/Ha)
From Rainach (2006)

24. Ethanol Cost Has Been Reduced Greatly; It Is Now Lower Than That of Gasoline
Goldenberg, 2005

25. In Brazil, 70% of All New Cars Sold Now Are FFVs
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
jan/03
abr/03
jul/03
out/03
jan/04
abr/04
jul/04
out/04
jan/05
abr/05
jul/05
out/05 3%
26% 2%
69%
Flex (Ethanol or gasoline)
Ethanol (Pure)
Gasoline
Diesel

26. No.3 Ethanol Consumption Country with ~340 Million Gallons in 2005
Chinese Corn Ethanol:
No.3 Ethanol Consumption Country with ~340 Million Gallons in 2005

27. Annual Production in tonnes
Four Fuel Ethanol Plants in China Produce 340 Million Gallons of EtOH a Year from Grains
Company
Location
Annual Production in tonnes
Jilin Fuel Ethanol Co., Ltd
Jilin City, Jilin Province
300,000
Heilongjiang China Resources Corporation
Zhaodong City, Heilongjiang Province
100,000
Henan Tianguan Group
Nanyang City, Henan Provice
Anhui BBCA Biochemical
Bufeng City, Anhui Province
320,000

28. Supply of Grain-Based Ethanol in the U.S. and China May Be Limited
Population (in million)
296
1306
Gasoline market: billion gallons
140 16
Diesel market: billion gallons 50 24
Corn ethanol production: billion gallon
4.2
0.3
Corn production: million tons
332
128
Arable land: million hectares
186
130

29. U.S. Biodiesel Production

30. U.S. Biodiesel Production Has Increased Dramatically and Will Continue to Do So

31. U.S. Biodiesel Plant Location

32. Incentives and Policies Have Played a Major Role in Biofuel Use
$0.51/gallon incentive for ethanol
$1.00/gallon incentive for biodiesel
The 2005 Energy Policy Act establishes renewable fuel standards
Brazil
In early years, government had financial incentives
But sugarcane ethanol is now self-sustaining economically
China
Grain ethanol producers receive RMB 1,200/tonne of ethanol

33. Potential Adverse Effects of Large-Scale Biofuel Production
Land availability in individual countries
Food vs. fuel debate
Potential soil effects: erosion, carbon depletion, etc.
Water pollution by nitrate from intensive farming
Water resource requirements
Ecological effects of land cultivation for biofuel production