1. Population
Chapter 2

2. World Population Centers -- Today
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3. World Population http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html
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4. Population by Continent
Rank
Continent
Population 2013
±% p.a —
World
7,162,119,000
1.17% 1
Asia
4,298,723,000
1.06% 2
Africa
1,110,635,000
2.51% 3
Americas
972,005,000
1.03% 4
Europe
742,452,000
0.10% 5
Oceania
38,304,000
1.47%
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5. Density Measures Thing on top – Area on bottom Arithmetic D = Pop/Area
Limited value
Physiological D = Pop/Arable Area
Pre-Industrial indicator of Carrying Capacity of the land
Agricultural D = Farmers/Arable Area
Indicator of Economic Development
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6. Here size is related to pop not area.
Population Cartogram
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7. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL
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8. Today Investigate the Demographic Transition Model
Investigate Types of Diagrams used to display and map Demographics
As you are going through these materials be sure you are also reading your textbook
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9. 1. DEFINING GENERAL TERMS AND CONCEPTS
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10. Basic Terms Crude Birth Rate Crude Death Rate Rate of Natural Increase
Doubling Time
Infant Mortality Rate
Fertility Rate
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11. Crude Birth Rate CBR Number of live births per year = 3,180
Divided by population = 200,000
Times 1,000
CBR = [(3,180)/200,000] x 1,000
CBR = 15.9 births per 1,000 people
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12. Crude Birth Rate
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13. USA Crude Birth Rate 2015
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14. Crude Death Rate CDR Number of deaths per year = 1,860
Divided by population = 200,000
Times 1,000
CDR = [(1,860)/200,000] x 1,000
CDR = 9.3 deaths per 1,000 people
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15. Crude Death Rate
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16. Rate of Natural Increase
RNI
CBR = 15.9
Minus CDR = 9.3
Divided by 10
RNI = (CBR – CDR)/10
= [( ) /10
= 0.66% growth per year
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17. Rate of Natural Increase
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18. Doubling Time
Basically how many years to double a population based on the Rate of Natural Increase
Rate of Nat. Increase
Doubling Time 1%
70yrs 2%
35yrs 3%
24yrs
USA %
128yrs
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19. Infant Mortality Rate IM
number of newborns dying under 0ne year of age = 25
divided by the number of live births during same year = 3,180
Times 1,000
IM = (25/3,180) x 1,000
IM = 7.9 deaths per 1,000 births
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20. Where do you think the USA Falls on this list?
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21. Infant Mortality Rate
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22. Fertility Rate Average Number of child births Per woman
Since a couple is 2 people, need a little more than 2 births to replace the parents
2.1 is considered a stable growth fertility rate in the USA or a Developed Country
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23. USA Fertility Rate
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24. Fertility Rate
Great Web Interactive web site
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25. Next: Types of Diagrams
Demographic Transition Model
Population Pyramid
Trend Diagrams
Temporal (over time)
Spatial (over space
Survivorship Diagram
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26. 2.DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL
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27. Simplified Version
Time
Natural
increase
Birth rate
Death rate
Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.
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28. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL: Traditional Diagram
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29. Another way of displaying including the Rate of Natural Increase
Curve for changing Rate of Natural Increase during the Demographic Transition
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30. What is the Demographic Transition Model?
The "Demographic Transition" is a model that describes population change over time.
Our main concern has been growth
Now in Industrial Countries it is in decline
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31. What is the Demographic Transition Model?
“It  is based on an interpretation begun in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson, of the observed changes, or transitions, in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the past two hundred years or so.”
Jerome D. Fellmann, 2013
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32. What is the Demographic Transition Model?
The "Demographic Transition" is a model/ a scientific hypothesis
Until the 1990s it seemed to work well with Developed Countries
It worked pretty well with Less Developed Countries
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33. What is the Demographic Transition Model?
The "Demographic Transition" is based on the Scientific Method,
so we are continually “experimenting” with it and improving it
Here we will critique it with Italy & Japan
But first look at Impacts and Consequences
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34. Impacts and Consequences The next several sets of tables summarizes the measures of impacts of the Transition
Four Stages Impacts
1. Very Low Growth
2. High Growth
3. High but Slowing Growth
4. Low Growth
Some now see a fifth stage
5. ??? Decline sets in ???? Which is the case in Europe and Japan
Factors That Change over the Stages
Family Size
Infant Mortality & Fertility Rates
Family Economics
Status of Kids
Gender Roles
Health Conditions
Child Deaths
Population Size
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35. Trends stabilize with 2 kid families or less
Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1 : Pre industrialization: Stable population growth
Stage 2: Rapid population growth
Stage 3: Continued and decreasing population growth
Stage 4: Stable low population growth
CBR
High Birth rates
Falling Birth rates
Low Birth rates
Family Size -- planned
Family Planning -- The general plan is to have many kids
Family Planning -- The plan is to have fewer kids
Trends stabilize with 2 kid families or less
Infant Mortality Rate/ Fertility Rate
Many children because few survive-- high fertility rate
Still many kids because expect few to survive -- high fertility
Lower infant mortality rates -- less pressure to have children, fertility declines
Small family size low fertility rate
Family Economics
Many children are needed to work the land
Children are still useful for work
Increased mechanization and industrialization means less need for labor/kids
Women are working in great numbers
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36. Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1 : Pre industrialization: Stable population growth
Stage 2: Rapid population growth
Stage 3: Continued and decreasing population growth
Stage 4: Stable low population growth
CBR
High Birth rates
Falling Birth rates
Low Birth rates
Status of Kids
Children are a sign of virility & status and old age insurance
Increased desire for material possessions and less desire for large families
Kids are an expense & “bling”
Gender roles
Strong sex roles
Emancipation of women
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37. CDR Health Conditions Child Deaths
Stage 1 : Pre industrialization: Stable population growth
Stage 2: Rapid population growth
Stage 3: Continued and decreasing population growth
Stage 4: Stable low population growth
CDR
High Death Rates
Falling Death Rates
Death rates Low
Health Conditions
Poor Diet & Sanitation, Famine and Disease
Improved diet, sanitation & medical care
Slight improvement
No change
Child Deaths
High child mortality before age 5
A decrease in child mortality
Child mortality very low
Stable
After Copper, Models of Demography,
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38. Stage 1 : Pre industrialization: Stable population growth
Stage 1 : Pre industrialization: Stable population growth
Stage 2: Rapid population growth
Stage 3: Continued and decreasing population growth
Stage 4: Stable low population growth
Rate Natural Increase
Very Low Growth
High Growth
Slowing Growth
Low Growth
Population Size
Small Population
Bigger
Biggest
After Copper, Models of Demography,
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39. Thought Exercise
For the next two diagrams determine the years for the start of Stage 2, 3 and 4 as appropriate
Sources
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40. Developed Country Example: Sweden
Note that reality is a bit messier than theory.
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41. Developing Country Example: Mexico
This looks more like what we are expecting
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42. Combination emphasizing changes over time, Sweden takes longer and Sweden starts from lower CBR and CDR
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43. 3. TYPES OF DIAGRAMS
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44. More Types of Diagrams
These diagrams help us to understand the mechanism causing the Demographic Transition Model to operate and its impact
Survivorship Diagram
Stabilization Ratio Diagram
Population Pyramids
Temporal Trends
Spatial Trends
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45. Survivorship Diagram: Emphasis on longer life expectancy as CDR drops
Now 90% live past 55yrs old
Less then 10% reached 25yrs old
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46. Public Health: One of the many past causes of high child mortality rates
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47. HIGHLIGHTS IN WORLD POPULATION GROWTH
Recent Exponential Growth of World’s Population as countries enter Stage 2 and Stage 3 of the Demographic Transition
HIGHLIGHTS IN WORLD POPULATION GROWTH
1 billion in 1804
2 bil. in 1927 (123 years later)
3  bil. in 1960 (33 years later)
4  bil. in 1974 (14 years later)
5  bil. in 1987 (13 years later)
6 bil. in 1999
(13
Years later)
7  bil. in 2012 (13 Years later)
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48. Total Population of the World by Decade, 1950–2050
Year
Total world population (mid-year figures)
Ten-year growth rate (%)
1950
2,556,000,053
18.9%
1960
3,039,451,023
22.0
1970
3,706,618,163
20.2
1980
4,453,831,714
18.5
1990
5,278,639,789
15.2
2000
6,082,966,429
12.6
20101
6,848,932,929
10.7
20201
7,584,821,144
8.7
20301
8,246,619,341
7.3
20401
8,850,045,889
5.6
20501
9,346,399,468 —
(historical and projected)
The good news – Growth rate is in decline
The bad news – we will try to add another 2.5 bill.
Mainly another Billion people in Africa
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49. Stabilization of World’s population is still over a generation away
But Geographically it will be more concentrated
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50. Population Pyramids
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51. Demonstrate where the population is by age cohort
Guatemala Stage 2
Population Pyramids
Demonstrate where the population is by age cohort
Also can see Demographic Stage
Mexico is now in Stage 3 where is Guatemala?
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52. USA – what Stage would you say this is???
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53. Demographic Indicators
Stage 4: Sweden
Demographic Indicators
Birth Rate: 12 per thousand Total fertility rate: 1.8 births Natural increase: 0.1% per year Age structure: 18% under 15 yrs.age
Italy with declining population. Will there be a Stage 5???
Demographic Indicators
Birth Rate: 9 per thousand Total fertility rate: 1.2 births Natural increase: -0.1% per year Age structure: 14% under 15 yrs.age
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54. Japan, an upside down pyramid in the making? Population collapse???
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55. Result is a decline in CBR
Example of how families adjust to lower infant mortality rates with lower fertility rates.
Result is a decline in CBR
Infant Mortality Rate per 1,000
This is a temporal trend diagram.
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56. Spatial Trend Diagram: Countries with higher IM have higher Fertility Rates.
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57. Comparative Temporal and Spatial Data Diagram
What is occuring here? Speculate why.
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58. Births are solid line, deaths dashed
Comparison of Development and Wealth to Population Growth Rates across Countries
Births are solid line, deaths dashed
Note little difference in death rate, large difference in birth rate
Result poorer countries grow faster, rich ones little to none, today even declines
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59. Additional Details on Mexico
If you want more information on Mexico click below
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60. Where is the World’s Population Growing? Declining?
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61. ONE LAST CONCEPT
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62. Dependency Ratio
Ratio of non-working population to working age population
Non-Workers are the young and aged retirees
young are usually 15 yrs old and below
retirees are usually 64 yrs old and above
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63. Dependency Ratio
Divide the non-working population by the working, between the black lines is the workers above is old below is children and youths
Denmark: Split between kids & elderly
Chile: Kids still dominate
Cape Verde: Mostly kids few elderly
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64. Pakistan’s High Dependency Ratio today but declining in the near future based on fewer kids but still few elderly.
Note how the young population is expected to stabilize and elderly to grow.
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65. Dependency Ratio Woes
A rising dependency ratio is also a concern in many countries that are facing aging populations, since it becomes difficult for pension and social security systems to provide to retirees.
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66. More on Dependency
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67. Japan showing its high number of dependants to working age population
lots of elderly (nearly black color)
Working age population (purple color)
few kids (dark purple color)
Result is high Dependency Ratio
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68. Malthus – And the Doomsdayers vs. Cornicopians
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69. India has experienced a so-called Green Revolution that has
Pop. Growth
Food Growth
Pop. Growth
Food Growth
India has experienced a so-called Green Revolution that has
food growth keeping pace with population growth, will this last?
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70. Click page to learn more
Lester Brown
Click page to learn more
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71. Do we need to worry?
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72. Sections 2.9 and 2.10
I will leave these for you to read and reflect on by yourself
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73. VIDEOS TO LOOK AT
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74. Interesting Video
Hans Rosling on global population growth – TED Lecture
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75. Other Interesting Videos with a more radical approach
Right leaning Heritage Foundation -- Decline of Europe based on Demographic Collapse (go to minute 8:00)
An Egyptian take: Muslim majority in Europe in 20 years (in Arabic)
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