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Population Chapter 2
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World Population Centers -- Today
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World Population http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html
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Population by Continent
Rank Continent Population 2013 ±% p.a — World 7,162,119,000 1.17% 1 Asia 4,298,723,000 1.06% 2 Africa 1,110,635,000 2.51% 3 Americas 972,005,000 1.03% 4 Europe 742,452,000 0.10% 5 Oceania 38,304,000 1.47% Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Density Measures Thing on top – Area on bottom Arithmetic D = Pop/Area
Limited value Physiological D = Pop/Arable Area Pre-Industrial indicator of Carrying Capacity of the land Agricultural D = Farmers/Arable Area Indicator of Economic Development Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Here size is related to pop not area.
Population Cartogram Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL
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Today Investigate the Demographic Transition Model
Investigate Types of Diagrams used to display and map Demographics As you are going through these materials be sure you are also reading your textbook Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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1. DEFINING GENERAL TERMS AND CONCEPTS
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Basic Terms Crude Birth Rate Crude Death Rate Rate of Natural Increase
Doubling Time Infant Mortality Rate Fertility Rate Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Crude Birth Rate CBR Number of live births per year = 3,180
Divided by population = 200,000 Times 1,000 CBR = [(3,180)/200,000] x 1,000 CBR = 15.9 births per 1,000 people Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Crude Birth Rate Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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USA Crude Birth Rate 2015 Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Crude Death Rate CDR Number of deaths per year = 1,860
Divided by population = 200,000 Times 1,000 CDR = [(1,860)/200,000] x 1,000 CDR = 9.3 deaths per 1,000 people Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Crude Death Rate Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Rate of Natural Increase
RNI CBR = 15.9 Minus CDR = 9.3 Divided by 10 RNI = (CBR – CDR)/10 = [( ) /10 = 0.66% growth per year Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Rate of Natural Increase
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Doubling Time Basically how many years to double a population based on the Rate of Natural Increase Rate of Nat. Increase Doubling Time 1% 70yrs 2% 35yrs 3% 24yrs USA % 128yrs Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Infant Mortality Rate IM
number of newborns dying under 0ne year of age = 25 divided by the number of live births during same year = 3,180 Times 1,000 IM = (25/3,180) x 1,000 IM = 7.9 deaths per 1,000 births Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Where do you think the USA Falls on this list?
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Infant Mortality Rate Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Fertility Rate Average Number of child births Per woman
Since a couple is 2 people, need a little more than 2 births to replace the parents 2.1 is considered a stable growth fertility rate in the USA or a Developed Country Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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USA Fertility Rate Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Fertility Rate Great Web Interactive web site Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Next: Types of Diagrams
Demographic Transition Model Population Pyramid Trend Diagrams Temporal (over time) Spatial (over space Survivorship Diagram Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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2.DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL
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Simplified Version Time Natural increase Birth rate Death rate Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths. Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL: Traditional Diagram
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Another way of displaying including the Rate of Natural Increase
Curve for changing Rate of Natural Increase during the Demographic Transition Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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What is the Demographic Transition Model?
The "Demographic Transition" is a model that describes population change over time. Our main concern has been growth Now in Industrial Countries it is in decline Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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What is the Demographic Transition Model?
“It is based on an interpretation begun in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson, of the observed changes, or transitions, in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the past two hundred years or so.” Jerome D. Fellmann, 2013 Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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What is the Demographic Transition Model?
The "Demographic Transition" is a model/ a scientific hypothesis Until the 1990s it seemed to work well with Developed Countries It worked pretty well with Less Developed Countries Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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What is the Demographic Transition Model?
The "Demographic Transition" is based on the Scientific Method, so we are continually “experimenting” with it and improving it Here we will critique it with Italy & Japan But first look at Impacts and Consequences Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Impacts and Consequences The next several sets of tables summarizes the measures of impacts of the Transition Four Stages Impacts 1. Very Low Growth 2. High Growth 3. High but Slowing Growth 4. Low Growth Some now see a fifth stage 5. ??? Decline sets in ???? Which is the case in Europe and Japan Factors That Change over the Stages Family Size Infant Mortality & Fertility Rates Family Economics Status of Kids Gender Roles Health Conditions Child Deaths Population Size Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Trends stabilize with 2 kid families or less
Demographic Transition Model Stage 1 : Pre industrialization: Stable population growth Stage 2: Rapid population growth Stage 3: Continued and decreasing population growth Stage 4: Stable low population growth CBR High Birth rates Falling Birth rates Low Birth rates Family Size -- planned Family Planning -- The general plan is to have many kids Family Planning -- The plan is to have fewer kids Trends stabilize with 2 kid families or less Infant Mortality Rate/ Fertility Rate Many children because few survive-- high fertility rate Still many kids because expect few to survive -- high fertility Lower infant mortality rates -- less pressure to have children, fertility declines Small family size low fertility rate Family Economics Many children are needed to work the land Children are still useful for work Increased mechanization and industrialization means less need for labor/kids Women are working in great numbers Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1 : Pre industrialization: Stable population growth Stage 2: Rapid population growth Stage 3: Continued and decreasing population growth Stage 4: Stable low population growth CBR High Birth rates Falling Birth rates Low Birth rates Status of Kids Children are a sign of virility & status and old age insurance Increased desire for material possessions and less desire for large families Kids are an expense & “bling” Gender roles Strong sex roles Emancipation of women Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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CDR Health Conditions Child Deaths
Stage 1 : Pre industrialization: Stable population growth Stage 2: Rapid population growth Stage 3: Continued and decreasing population growth Stage 4: Stable low population growth CDR High Death Rates Falling Death Rates Death rates Low Health Conditions Poor Diet & Sanitation, Famine and Disease Improved diet, sanitation & medical care Slight improvement No change Child Deaths High child mortality before age 5 A decrease in child mortality Child mortality very low Stable After Copper, Models of Demography, Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Stage 1 : Pre industrialization: Stable population growth
Stage 1 : Pre industrialization: Stable population growth Stage 2: Rapid population growth Stage 3: Continued and decreasing population growth Stage 4: Stable low population growth Rate Natural Increase Very Low Growth High Growth Slowing Growth Low Growth Population Size Small Population Bigger Biggest After Copper, Models of Demography, Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Thought Exercise For the next two diagrams determine the years for the start of Stage 2, 3 and 4 as appropriate Sources Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Developed Country Example: Sweden
Note that reality is a bit messier than theory. Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Developing Country Example: Mexico
This looks more like what we are expecting Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Combination emphasizing changes over time, Sweden takes longer and Sweden starts from lower CBR and CDR Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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3. TYPES OF DIAGRAMS Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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More Types of Diagrams These diagrams help us to understand the mechanism causing the Demographic Transition Model to operate and its impact Survivorship Diagram Stabilization Ratio Diagram Population Pyramids Temporal Trends Spatial Trends Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Survivorship Diagram: Emphasis on longer life expectancy as CDR drops
Now 90% live past 55yrs old Less then 10% reached 25yrs old Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Public Health: One of the many past causes of high child mortality rates
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HIGHLIGHTS IN WORLD POPULATION GROWTH
Recent Exponential Growth of World’s Population as countries enter Stage 2 and Stage 3 of the Demographic Transition HIGHLIGHTS IN WORLD POPULATION GROWTH 1 billion in 1804 2 bil. in 1927 (123 years later) 3 bil. in 1960 (33 years later) 4 bil. in 1974 (14 years later) 5 bil. in 1987 (13 years later) 6 bil. in 1999 (13 Years later) 7 bil. in 2012 (13 Years later) Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Total Population of the World by Decade, 1950–2050
Year Total world population (mid-year figures) Ten-year growth rate (%) 1950 2,556,000,053 18.9% 1960 3,039,451,023 22.0 1970 3,706,618,163 20.2 1980 4,453,831,714 18.5 1990 5,278,639,789 15.2 2000 6,082,966,429 12.6 20101 6,848,932,929 10.7 20201 7,584,821,144 8.7 20301 8,246,619,341 7.3 20401 8,850,045,889 5.6 20501 9,346,399,468 — (historical and projected) The good news – Growth rate is in decline The bad news – we will try to add another 2.5 bill. Mainly another Billion people in Africa Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Stabilization of World’s population is still over a generation away
But Geographically it will be more concentrated Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Population Pyramids Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Demonstrate where the population is by age cohort
Guatemala Stage 2 Population Pyramids Demonstrate where the population is by age cohort Also can see Demographic Stage Mexico is now in Stage 3 where is Guatemala? Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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USA – what Stage would you say this is???
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Demographic Indicators
Stage 4: Sweden Demographic Indicators Birth Rate: 12 per thousand Total fertility rate: 1.8 births Natural increase: 0.1% per year Age structure: 18% under 15 yrs.age Italy with declining population. Will there be a Stage 5??? Demographic Indicators Birth Rate: 9 per thousand Total fertility rate: 1.2 births Natural increase: -0.1% per year Age structure: 14% under 15 yrs.age Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Japan, an upside down pyramid in the making? Population collapse???
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Result is a decline in CBR
Example of how families adjust to lower infant mortality rates with lower fertility rates. Result is a decline in CBR Infant Mortality Rate per 1,000 This is a temporal trend diagram. Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Spatial Trend Diagram: Countries with higher IM have higher Fertility Rates.
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Comparative Temporal and Spatial Data Diagram
What is occuring here? Speculate why. Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Births are solid line, deaths dashed
Comparison of Development and Wealth to Population Growth Rates across Countries Births are solid line, deaths dashed Note little difference in death rate, large difference in birth rate Result poorer countries grow faster, rich ones little to none, today even declines Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Additional Details on Mexico
If you want more information on Mexico click below Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Where is the World’s Population Growing? Declining?
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ONE LAST CONCEPT Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Dependency Ratio Ratio of non-working population to working age population Non-Workers are the young and aged retirees young are usually 15 yrs old and below retirees are usually 64 yrs old and above Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Dependency Ratio Divide the non-working population by the working, between the black lines is the workers above is old below is children and youths Denmark: Split between kids & elderly Chile: Kids still dominate Cape Verde: Mostly kids few elderly Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Pakistan’s High Dependency Ratio today but declining in the near future based on fewer kids but still few elderly. Note how the young population is expected to stabilize and elderly to grow. Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Dependency Ratio Woes A rising dependency ratio is also a concern in many countries that are facing aging populations, since it becomes difficult for pension and social security systems to provide to retirees. Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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More on Dependency Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Japan showing its high number of dependants to working age population
lots of elderly (nearly black color) Working age population (purple color) few kids (dark purple color) Result is high Dependency Ratio Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Malthus – And the Doomsdayers vs. Cornicopians
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India has experienced a so-called Green Revolution that has
Pop. Growth Food Growth Pop. Growth Food Growth India has experienced a so-called Green Revolution that has food growth keeping pace with population growth, will this last? Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Click page to learn more
Lester Brown Click page to learn more Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Do we need to worry? Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Sections 2.9 and 2.10 I will leave these for you to read and reflect on by yourself Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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VIDEOS TO LOOK AT Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Interesting Video Hans Rosling on global population growth – TED Lecture Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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Other Interesting Videos with a more radical approach
Right leaning Heritage Foundation -- Decline of Europe based on Demographic Collapse (go to minute 8:00) An Egyptian take: Muslim majority in Europe in 20 years (in Arabic) Chap 2 Population Envs 204
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