1. The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011
APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS OF THE FUTURE
Beata Poteralska
Institute for Sustainable Technologies – National Research Institute, Radom, Poland

2. APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS
OF THE FUTURE
Presentation plan
Methodology of the determination of priority research directions and its application in the area of environmental technologies
Building development scenarios
Implementing the scenarios in the form of strategic programmes

3. Determining priority research directions and key technologies
APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS
OF THE FUTURE
Determining priority research directions and key technologies
Determination of priority research directions
Generation of lists of priority advanced technologies
Assessment of technological readiness
Identification of qualifications and competences for the development of advanced technologies
Design of characteristics of advanced technologies
Development of technology maps
Creation of scenarios of technological and social development
Implementation of the scenarios in the form of the strategic programme

4. Determination of priority research directions and key technologies
APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS
OF THE FUTURE
Determination of priority research directions and key technologies
Research directions realised at strategic institutions
National strategic research directions
Strategic documents and directives of the European Union
Determination of priority research directions
Analysis
of the state-of-the-art
Expert analyses
Emerging
technologies
Incremental technologies

5. Priority directions of environmental technologies
APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS
OF THE FUTURE
Priority directions of environmental technologies
Technologies of producing maintenance materials with increased maintenance values;
Technologies for the rationalisation of the use of raw materials and resources;
Technologies of waste recycling and utilisation;
Low-waste technologies of manufacturing and regenerating machines and devices;
Pro-ecological technologies of producing energy;
Logistics systems for waste and energy management.

6. Design of characteristics of advanced technologies
APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS
OF THE FUTURE
Design of characteristics of advanced technologies
INTERNAL EXPERTS
EXTERNAL EXPERTS
SUBSTANTIAL WORK
List of incremental technologies
List of emerging technologies
Incremental technologies characteristics form
Emerging technologies characteristics form
Design of technology characteristics forms
METHODOLOGICAL WORK
CONSULTATIONS
Supplementation, modification, suggestions, etc.
DATABASE
Set of incremental and emerging technologies

7. Generation of lists of priority advanced technologies
APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS
OF THE FUTURE
Generation of lists of priority advanced technologies
EXPERT PANELS
Technologies prioritisation
List of priority technologies
Criterion:
Sustainable development
Criterion:
Critical nature of technology
List of incremental technologies
Economic effects
Interdisciplinarity level of technology
Ecological effects
List of emerging technologies
Social effects

8. Assessment of technological readiness
APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS
OF THE FUTURE
Assessment of technological readiness
EXPERT PANELS
Assessment of technological readiness
List of technologies
with high level
of technological readiness
Assessment of technological readiness of particular research directions for commercial application

9. Demand for new occupations, qualifications and competences
APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS
OF THE FUTURE
Identification of qualifications and competences for developing advanced technologies
Diagnosis of formal and informal education of specialists in the field of advanced technologies
Balance of qualifications and competences for specialists in the field of advanced technologies
Demand for new occupations, qualifications and competences
Scenarios of the demand for qualifications and competences in the field of advanced technologies
Recommendations concerning the need to develop vocational qualification standards and modular curricula

10. Scenarios of technological and social development
APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS
OF THE FUTURE
Scenarios of technological and social development
SCENARIOS OF TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT
DYNAMIC DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO
Increasing tendency of key factors influencing R&D works
High probability of the occurence of that tendency
STABILISATION SCENARIO
Constant tendency of factors at the high probability of the occurence of this tendency
Increasing and decreasing tendencies of factors at the low probability of the occurence of these tendencies
DECLINE SCENARIO
Decreasing tendency of factors
High probability of the occurence of that tendency

11. Scenarios of technological and social development
APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS
OF THE FUTURE
Scenarios of technological and social development
DYNAMIC DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO
STABILISATION SCENARIO
TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT
Constant tendency of factors at the high probability of the occurence of this tendency
Increasing and decreasing tendencies of factors at the low probability of the occurence of these tendencies
Average and low priority level of technologies
High technological readiness level of technologies
TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT
Increasing tendency of key factors influencing R&D
High probability of the occurence of that tendency
High priority level of technologies
High technological readiness level of technologies
SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT
Qualifications and competences needed for the development of technologies indicated in the scenario of dynamic technological development
SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT
Qualifications and competences needed for the development of technologies indicated in the stabilisation scenario of technological development

12. Scenarios development – environmental technologies
APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS
OF THE FUTURE
Level of priority
Scenarios development – environmental technologies
Dynamic development scenario
Decline scenario
Stabilisation scenario – high priority technologies
Stabilisation scenario – technologies with high level of technological readiness
T3E
T2E
T4E
T14I
T1E
T8I
T10I
T13I
T3I
T12I
T11I
T2I
T6I
T1I
T9I
T7I
Environmental technologies
T15I
T4I
T5I
Technological readiness level
T1I, T2I … – incremental technologies
T1E, T2E … – emerging technologies

13. Scenarios development – environmental technologies
APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS
OF THE FUTURE
Scenarios development – environmental technologies
STABILISATION SCENARIO
TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT
Development of incremental solutions directed at the improvement of existing ones, e.g.:
Technologies for the rationalisation of the use of materials and resources, including:
waste recycling and utilisation technologies
technologies of textile and thermoplastic polymer composites recycling
application of membrane systems in recycling and utilisation technologies for aqueous operating fluids and sewage …
SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT
Development of environmental technologies requires:
specialised and interdisciplinary knowledge
latest knowledge of chemistry, physics, material engineering, ecology, biotechnology and nanotechnology …

14. Implementation of the scenarios in the form of strategic programmes
APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS
OF THE FUTURE
Implementation of the scenarios in the form of strategic programmes
Strategic Programme „Innovative Systems of Technical Support for Sustainable Development of Economy”
Sectoral foresight project
Stabilisation scenarios
(incremental technologies)
Strategic Programme „Advanced Technologies of the Future for Sustainable Development”
Dynamic development scenario
(emerging technologies)

15. APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS
OF THE FUTURE
Conclusions
The methodology designed, enables the determination of priority research areas of technical support for the sustainable development of the economy
Great importance of pro-ecological technologies’ development and implementation generates the need to determine priority research areas in this field
Research in the determined areas is executed in practice in the strategic research programmes financed from European or national funds
An example of a strategic programme, whose subject matter was generated with the use of the methodology developed is „Innovative Systems of Technical Support for Sustainable Development of Economy”

16. Institute for Sustainable Technologies – National Research Institute
APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS
OF THE FUTURE
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
Beata Poteralska
Institute for Sustainable Technologies – National Research Institute
Pulaskiego 6/10
RADOM
POLAND