1. Data Analysis in the Australian Football League
SSAI – Victorian Branch Meeting
November 2011
Karl Jackson

2. MY PATH University of Queensland, Brisbane (2002 – 2006)
Bachelor of Science
Statistics (via Education, Physics & Pure Maths)
Honours in Statistics (Extreme Value Theory)
Swinburne University of Technology (2007 – )
PhD (Statistics)
Player Ratings – Who was best on ground?
Champion Data
Part-time (2007 – 2009)
Full-time (2010 – )
19/09/2018

3. OUTLINE Champion Data AFL Data Data Analysis State of the Game
Three Phases
19/09/2018

4. CHAMPION DATA AFL, Netball
Provider of high performance services to elite sport
Data
Analysis
Research and Development
Vision Services
Graphics Integration (TV Broadcasts)
AFL, Netball
Cricket, Soccer, Rugby Union, Rugby League, …
19/09/2018

5. CHAMPION DATA Established 1995 Official AFL Statisticians 1998 –
Official ANZ Netball Statisticians –
19/09/2018

6. CHAMPION DATA Clients Australian Football League AFL Clubs TV
Live Match Day Broadcasts
Weekday Studio Productions
Print Media
Websites
Live Scoring
Stats Tables
Fantasy Football
Mobile Applications
19/09/2018

7. Supply the industry with data & analysis
CHAMPION DATA
Supply the industry with data & analysis
Clubs & Media
Tell the story of the game
Who won and why
Heroes & villains
Tactics, strengths & weaknesses
Monitor game & club trends
19/09/2018

8. OUTLINE Champion Data AFL Data Data Analysis State of the Game
Three Phases
19/09/2018

9. AFL DATA 10 Person Capture Crew At Ground In Office
Main Caller Keyboarder
Support Back-up Caller
Interchange Positional
Match-ups Pressure Caller
Spotter Pressure Keyboarder
19/09/2018

10. AFL DATA Match Level Chain Level Transaction Level
Date, Venue, Clubs, Result
Chain Level
Start Type, End Type, Launch/Guilty Player
Transaction Level
Time, Margin, Event Type, Player, Opponent, Location
Extra Info (Where applicable)
Kicks: Intent, Distance, Direction, Foot
Disposals: Pressure (Applied & Received)
Free Kicks: Reason, Context
Inside 50s: Type, Target
Scores: Context, Source, Shot Type
19/09/2018

11. AFL DATA
19/09/2018

12. AFL DATA
19/09/2018

13. AFL DATA
19/09/2018

14. AFL DATA
19/09/2018

15. AFL DATA
19/09/2018

16. AFL DATA
19/09/2018

17. OUTLINE Champion Data AFL Data Data Analysis State of the Game
Three Phases
19/09/2018

18. DATA ANALYSIS Motivation Clubs – Controllable Factors
Game Styles
Trends
Strengths & Weaknesses
Media – Headlines
Trivia
Stories
General Public
Fantasy
Club Bias
Gambling
19/09/2018

19. DATA ANALYSIS Challenges Relevance v Significance
Empirical Data Analysis
Little to no Prediction/Modelling
Knowledge of Data
Eg. Possessions v Disposals
19/09/2018

20. OUTLINE Champion Data AFL Data Data Analysis State of the Game
Three Phases
19/09/2018

21. STATE OF THE GAME The Sub Rule – Motivation The Sub Rule – “Impact”
Reduce congestion
Reduce collision injuries by slowing the game
Increase fairness after injury
Control interchange numbers
The Sub Rule – “Impact”
Increased Clearance Rates
Increased Player Fatigue
Return of: Long Kicking
Contested Marking
Increased Scoring
19/09/2018

22. STATE OF THE GAME
19/09/2018

23. STATE OF THE GAME
19/09/2018

24. STATE OF THE GAME
19/09/2018

25. STATE OF THE GAME “Increased Scoring” Spread of Good vs Bad
186 points per match in 2011
Last three years: 197, 182, 181
Spread of Good vs Bad
Season
’11
’10
’09
’08
’07
’06
’05
’04
’03
’02
’01
’00
> 130% 5 2 1
< 70%
19/09/2018

26. OUTLINE Champion Data AFL Data Data Analysis State of the Game
Three Phases
19/09/2018

27. 3 PHASES Contest – Winning the ball Offence – Using the ball
Contested Possessions
Offence – Using the ball
Advanced Kicking
Defence – Winning the ball back
Pressure
19/09/2018

28. 3 PHASES
19/09/2018

29. 3 PHASES Advanced Kicking 𝑅 𝑖 = 𝐻 𝑖 −𝔼 𝐻; 𝜽 𝑖 H = Hit Rate ∈ 0,1
Take into account “difficulty” of each kick
Each kick measured on whether it hit its target
ELO-like rating system
𝑅 𝑖 = 𝐻 𝑖 −𝔼 𝐻; 𝜽 𝑖 H = Hit Rate ∈ 0,1
i = 1,2,3,…,n 𝑅= 𝑤 𝑖 𝑅 𝑖 𝑤 𝑖 𝜽 = Direction, Distance, Intent, Location, Pressure
19/09/2018

30. 3 PHASES
19/09/2018

31. 3 PHASES Top 10 Kick Ratings (100+ Kicks)
Barry Hall Western Bulldogs +16.0%
Matthew Scarlett Geelong Cats %
Matthew Jaensch Adelaide Crows %
Robert Murphy Western Bulldogs +9.9%
Adam Schneider St Kilda %
Brendon Goddard St Kilda %
Chris Newman Richmond +8.8%
Jared Rivers Melbourne +8.8%
David Rodan Port Adelaide +8.4%
Chris Yarran Carlton %
19/09/2018

32. 3 PHASES Bottom 10 Kick Ratings (100+ Kicks)
Liam Jones Western Bulldogs -12.5%
Andrew Raines Brisbane Lions %
Josh Kennedy Sydney Swans %
Liam Picken Western Bulldogs -9.5%
Nathan Fyfe Fremantle -9.4%
Jake Melksham Essendon -9.3%
Lindsay Thomas North Melbourne -9.2%
David Hille Essendon -9.0%
Zachary Smith Gold Coast Suns -8.5%
Clinton Jones St Kilda %
19/09/2018

33. 3 PHASES Pressure 𝑃𝐹= 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒𝑠 𝑛 Set Position No Pressure
𝑃𝐹= 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒𝑠 𝑛
Set Position
No Pressure
Implied Pressure
Physical Pressure
K:H
5.29
1.48
0.98
0.39
Kick Eff
77.7%
72.4%
57.2%
26.9%
Hand Eff
98.0%
94.6%
85.2%
58.6%
Eff Disp Rate
80.9%
81.4%
69.8%
28.4%
Value
0.75
1.00
1.79
3.75
19/09/2018

34. 3 PHASES
19/09/2018

35. 3 PHASES Of 196 matches in 2011, 71 teams won all three phases
Win % (# Matches)
Contest
Kicking
Pressure
68.8% (132/192)
91.3% (94/103)
84.9% (90/106)
74.0% (145/196)
83.7% (108/129)
69.4% (136/196)
Of 196 matches in 2011, 71 teams won all three phases
70 won the match (98.6%)
19/09/2018