1. Climate-Smart Agriculture in Asia
Rob Bertram, Chief Scientist, U.S. Agency for International Development

2. Feeding 9 Million People
Productivity
Feeding 9 Million People
CEA 2013 based on FAO 2012
Sadler, M The Role of Resilient Supply Chains in the Face of Climate Change

3. IN KEY WAYS, THE NEXT 20 YEARS ARE ALREADY DETERMINED
Consumption will increase with prosperity.
Climate change:
GHG now in the atmosphere will drive changes up to 2030.
Population increase:
An extra billion people by 2025.
Urbanization: 2010 first year urban population exceeds rural population ~55% 2025.

4. climate change: What CAN we Expect?
Less reliable precipitation/seasonality
Higher temperatures
More Extreme events (drought, flood, storm)
Cold possible
Pests and Disease—new/emerging/rapid changes
Nitrogen fixation effects

5. Evolution of Climate Smart Agriculture
Launch of Alliance at UNGA, Sept 2014
Many countries, World Bank, IFAD,FAO
“Triple-win Concept”
Increased productivity and income
Increased adaptation
Reduced GHG footprint (mitigation)
Implications:
Developed countries
Developing countries, especially smallholders

6. Climate ALREADY Challenging for smallholder farmers
Annual monthly average blue water scarcity. Period:
Mekonnen and Hoekstra, Sci Adv 2016.
Ganges basin India, Limpopo basin Southern Africa

7. Cereals: Climate Resilient Research and Impacts
Heat Tolerant Maize in South Asia—CIMMYT, Purdue, NARS from India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Pioneer and 10 other seed companies.
Heat tolerant hybrids released:
700+ heat tolerant hybrids under testing.
17 hybrids out perform the best commercial varieties—achieved in three years!
Unanticipated outcome: some varieties preferred by women farmers.

8. Cereals: Climate Resilient Research and Impacts
Successful public-private partnership
Private company partners increased from 3 to 11 in Asia, 160 hybrids released in Africa.
Commercial
HTMA
Commercial
STMA

9. Stress Tolerant Maize during El Niño
This field in Murewa, Zimbabwe, was severely hit by El Nino induced drought and heat. The farmer’s daughter (Margaret) in this photo shows the difference between commercial variety (SC513) and the CIMMYT hybrid (CZH132018); the yield from these two hybrids from the farmer’s plot makes this difference even more obvious.
SC513
CZH132018
Murewa, Zimbabwe
Peter Setimela

10. Program for Research on Legume Productivity
Soy, groundnut, bean, mungbean, chickpea, pigeonpea, lentil, perennial shrubs
Outstanding attributes:
Nutrition: protein and mineral-rich food/feed
Poverty reduction: Source of income, esp. women
Environmental Sustainability: legumes fix nitrogen on farms, reducing need to purchase fertilizer
Heat and drought devastate legumes
Heat-tolerant beans developed, role in systems

11. Sustainable Intensification Research Program
The challenge is to achieve sustainable transformation via smallholder farmers
Existing and future technologies are essential
Farmer choice—seeds, fertilizer, breeds
Context for technology scale-up is crucial
Integration of multiple technologies is needed
Information—weather, market, extension
Reduce risk—catalyze investment at all levels
Put this in the context of the session – Existing technologies. Emphasize that we need to intensify agriculture if we’re going to meet our goals. No other option. But how we do it will be crucial.

12. Fertilizer efficiency
Legumes: productivity and sustainability gains
Legumes: productivity and sustainability gains
Maize yield
Sole maize + recommended fertilizer
Sole maize = 100%
Doubled-up pigeon
pea rotation +
½ fertilizer
Fertilizer efficiency
Profit
Improves water-use efficiency too!
Protein yield
Ground cover

13. Envisioning the Future: CA, Diversification, + PA =
11% Crop Yield
Increase
46% Energy
Decrease
1: Conventional Rice-wheat; 3: Zero-till Rice (DSR)-Wheat-Mungbean
2: Best managed and intensified Rice-Wheat-Mungbean; 4: Zero-till Maize-Wheat-Mungbean
After three years, an unequivocal yes.
High yields can be maintained, with major improvements in environmental footprint as well as higher profitability.
State government is investing accordingly, in part due to the high-quality analysis emerging from the research platform in Karnal.
71% Irrigation
Decrease
32% Profitability
Increase
Photo: CSISA research platform at CSSRI, Karnal, India.

14. The Nitrogen Fertilizer Problem
Overuse and Uneven Availability

15. CSA & Sustainable Intensification
Needs to be Climate-Smart
Increased productivity: land, labor, capital, decreased emissions intensity
Reduced risk, including climate risk
Co-adaptation through biomass/organic matter
Resource-use efficiency
Efficient, prudent use of inputs
Technologies—diverse and available
Resource management practices
Information/knowledge-intensive

16. Intensification vs. Extensification
South Asia
Yield
sub-Saharan Africa

17. Environmental goals depend on ag transformation!

18. CSA spanning value chains
Major opportunities for CSA… and profit!
Input market—resource use efficiency
Irrigation innovation/efficiency
Risk-spreading/service provision helps drive capitalization
Post-harvest loss reduction
Market efficiency—better informationfor farmers
Drying/processing innovations
Reduce post-harvest losses
Streamline trade to reduce transit times

19. Smallholders still need: Irrigation, Mechanization
Photo: Documentation Center of Cambodia (DC-Cam) /Makara Ouch

20. What should we “select” for?
Feeding the Future
Leverage new science for climate-resilient
crops and livestock
Reduce yield gaps strategically
Choices/info for farmers (seeds, weather information, prices, advisory services)
Resource use efficiency
Diversification—staple crop productivity link
Policies, infrastructure enable capitalization and market access
Measure gains-drive investment
USAID was instrumental in creating the Green Revolution more than 50 years ago when research, development, and technology transfer initiatives spurred agriculture production in South Asia, Latin America, and India, saving hundreds of millions of lives from global hunger and famine.
In fact, the term “Green Revolution” was coined in 1968 by former USAID Administrator William Guad.
During the Green Revolution nearly 50 years ago, 20-30% of the USAID budget supported agriculture. By 2006, our support had dwindled to only 3%.  
In July 2009, at the G-8 Summit in L’Aquila, Italy, global leaders—including President Obama—called for increased investment in agriculture and rural development in developing countries as a proven lever for combating food insecurity and as an engine for broader economic growth, prosperity, and stability.
Our efforts are just one part of a global effort, launched at the G20 in London in March 2009, to reverse decades of declining support for agricultural development.
Photo: Borlaug Foundation