1. Climate Trends in the Philippines
Ppresented by:
THelma A. Cinco 1

2. PAGASA-DOST
PAGASA - Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration.
The country’s national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHS) provider
MISSION:
To provide weather, flood, climate and astronomical products and services to promote the people’s safety and well- being & contribute to national development
Presidential Decree No. 78; December 1972 as amended by Presidential Decree No. 1149; August 1977
The Philippines, through the PAGASA, is a Member of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a specialized body of the United Nations. 2

3. PAGASA-DOST’s Observation Facilities & Equipment
NORTHERN LUZON (Tuguegarao)
MINDANAO (Cagayan de Oro)
VISAYAS (Mactan, Cebu)
NCR (Quezon City)
SOUTHERN LUZON (Legaspi)
5 Regional Centers
58 Synoptic stations
23 Agromet stations
80 Climat/Rain stations
AWS 10M wind mast
76 AWS 2M wind mast(ASTI)
ARG
381 total
6 Upper air stations
10 Doppler radars
(2 under construction)
2 Marine buoys
5 Telemetered major river basins
3 Satellite receivers 3

4. Highly Suceptable to Floodings and Inundation
Archipelago, composed of low lying small islands
70% of cities and municipalities are coastal areas
Highly susceptible to flooding and storm surges

5. ST. BERNARD LANDSLIDE Feb 2006 Landslide :Ginsaugon, Feb 2006
Philippines has not been spared of the weather-related disasters due Storms, Typhoons and very intense rainfall
ST. BERNARD LANDSLIDE Feb 2006
Landslide :Ginsaugon, Feb 2006
TY Reming (DURIAN) 2006
Typhoon Frank (Fengshen)
June 21, (MV Princess of the Stars)
TY Milenyo, Sept 2006

6. How is global warming manifested in the Philippines?

7. Philippines mean temperature
Observed Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines ( ) Departures from normal values
An increase of 0.65°C from (60 years)

8. Maximum & Minimum Temperature
Rate of increase almost 3 times higher compared with the maximum temperature

9. Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines Period: (1951 – 2008)
Trend in the frequency of days with maximum temperature above the mean 99th percentile (Hot days).
Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature above the mean 99th percentile (Warm nights)

10. Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines Period: (1951 – 2008)
Trend in the frequency with maximum temperature below the mean 1st percentile
Cool Days
Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature below the mean 1st percentile Cold nights

11. 11

12. Classification of Tropical Cyclones
10/13/15
Tropical depression - maximum sustained winds is from 45 to 63 kph;
Tropical Storm - maximum sustained winds is from 64 to 118 kph;
Typhoon – maximum sustained winds is greater than 118 kph.

13. Tropical Cyclone Frequency using 1°x1° (1948-2010)
10/13/15
Tropical Cyclone Frequency using 1°x1° ( )
Tracks of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific
Period: ( ) s. s.
Visited by an average
19 to 20 Tropical cyclones
EVERY YEAR
Tracks of tropical cyclones that formed in the Western North Pacific (WNP) during the period (1641 TC and 1154 or 70% entered or formed in the Philippine Area of Responsibly (PAR) (Data used: JMA Data set).

14. Trends of the number of tropical cyclone in the Philippines Period: 1948-2010
*Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2006). Updating Tropical Cyclone climatology in the PAR., Phil. Met-Hydro Congress 2006.

15. Map of the frequency of tropical cyclone per decade in the PAR Period: 1951-2010
In order for us to see the changes we map the frequency of tropical cyclones passing thru the 1 lat x 1 longitude degree per decade. The maps shows a multi decadal variabiliTyphoon. During the period , the maximum area of TC activiTyphoon is in the eastern part of the country, and then shifted in the northern Luzon in , and become lesser from and 2001 to 2010
*Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2011). Updating Tropical Cyclone Climatology in the Philippines. 15

16. Map of the frequency of tropical cyclone per decade in the Philippines
The maps shows the frequency of land falling/crossing TC’s per decade. During the earlier decades , , there are more number in the northern Luzon and becomes alternating onwards. Based from the trends, there will be more number of TC’s in northern Luzon by
*Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2011). Updating Tropical Cyclone Climatology in the Philippines. 16

17. Trends of the number of tropical cyclone in the Philippines with maximum sustained winds of 150 kph and above
Neutral year
El Niño year
La Niña year

18. Monthly frequency of T. C
Monthly frequency of T.C. entering the PAR and crossing the Philippines Period:

19. Tropical cyclone statistics in PH
DISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE
(TOTAL DAMAGE PHP 1 BILLION OR MORE) PERIOD:
TC NAME
Date of Occurrence
Total damage in Billion PhP
TY_PEPENG (Parma)
Sep 30 - Oct
TY PEDRING
SEP , 2011
TY FRANK (Fengshen)
Jun 18 – 23, 2008
TY JUAN (Megi)
Oct16 – 21, 2010
TS_ONDOY (Ketsana)
Sep 24 – 27, 2009
TY_RUPING
NOV 8-14, 1990
DISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE
Number of Casualties > 300
TC NAME
Date of Occurrence
Casualties
TS Uring *
Nov 1-6, 1991
5101
TS Sendong (Washi) *
Dec 15-17, 2011
1268
TY Nitang
Aug 31 – Sep 4, 1984
1029
TY Trix
Oct 17-23, 1952
995
TY Amy
Dec 6-11, 1951
991
TY Rosing
Oct 30-Nov 4, 1995
936
Increasing cost of Damage
*The passages of TS Uring and TS Sendong were characterized by flashfloods.
MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF A TC
TC NAME
Maximum 24-hour rainfall (mm)
Date of Occurrence
TY Feria
(Baguio)
July 4, 2001
TY Iliang
994.6(Baguio)
Oct 14, 1998
TY Trining
979.4 (Baguio)
Oct 17, 1967
TY Susang
781.4 (Baguio)
Oct 11, 1974
760.0 (Baguio)
Oct 27, 1991
TY Ditang
730.3(Baguio)
May 15, 1980
MAXIMUM GUSTINESS OF A TC
TC NAME
Maximum Wind (kph)
Date of Occurrence
TY Reming
320 (Virac)
Nov 30, 2006
TY Loleng
287 (Virac)
Oct 21, 1998
TY Anding
280 (Virac)
Nov 27, 1981
TY Sening
276 (Virac)
Oct 13, 1970
TY Wening
269 (Aparri)
Oct 27, 1974
TY Trining
269 (Masbate)
Dec 15, 1987 19

20. Observed24-hour rainfall – 455mm20

21. Trends in Extreme Daily Rainfall Intensity in the Philippines Period: (1951 – 2008)

22. IMPACTS OF ENSO ON PHILIPPINE RAINFALL
Legend:
Severe drought impacts
Drought impacts with major losses
Moderate drought impacts
Near normal to above normal condition
Way above normal condition
Potential for flood damage
Severe flood damage
RED colored years are EL NINO years, BLUE colored years are LA NINA years and BLACK colored years are NON_ENSO years 22

23. Monthly Mean Rainfall Distribution
Neutral
El Niño
La Niña
Wetter in the western part
Wetter in the eastern part 23

24. Monthly Rainfall Average by Climate Type

25. Climate Trends in Manila

26. An increase of 2.21 °C from 1901-2010 (110 years)
Manila
An increase of 2.21 °C from (110 years)

27. Manila

28. Manila 28

29. Manila

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