1. Presented By:Thelma A. Cinco
PAGASA's
Major Services
and Products
Presented By:Thelma A. Cinco
PAGASA/DOST
Workshop on High Resolution Modelling using CCAM May 22, 2009

2. Background Information
PAGASA
mandated to provide public weather forecasts and advisories, typhoon and flood warnings, meteorological /climatological/ astronomical products, and other specialized services primarily for the protection of life and property, and in support of economic productivity
we from the CAB of PAGASA, the NMHC of the Phils. Mandated to provide public weather forecasts
and advisories, typhoon and flood warnings, meteorological/climatological/ astronomical products, and other specialized services primarily for the protection of life and property, and in support of economic productivity
Included in MDP specifically for disaster preparednes & mitigation.

3. Philippine geography & topography
Archipelago, composed of 7,100 islands with low lying areas
Due to its geographical setting, it is considered as one of the countries of the world most prone to extreme climatic events.
Among longest coastlines in the world with 32,400 kms (susceptible to storm surges)
Highly susceptible to sea level rise

4. PAGASA Approved Rationalization Plan
OFFICE OF THE ADMINISTRATOR
CLIMATOLOGY AND AGROMETEOROLOGY DIVISION
WEATHER DIVISION
ENGINEERING AND TECHNICAL SERVICES
FINANCIAL, PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT DIVISION
ADMINISTRATIVE DIVISION
HYDRO-METEOROLOGY DIVISION
RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT AND TRAINING DIVISION
PAGASA REGIONAL SERVICES DIVISIONS
(5)
FIELD STATIONS
Based on approved Rationalization Plan
PAGASA Approved Rationalization Plan

5. OBSERVATION NETWORKS Synoptic Stations 58 (w/repairs)
Agromet Stations (w/repairs)
Upper-air Stations (rehab)
Weather Surveillance Radar Dopplers
AWS new sites
MTSAT Receiving Facility
MODIS Receiving Facility
FY-2D
World Area Forecast System (WAFS)
NOAA Satellite Receiving Facility
WEFAX Receiving Facility
Climat stations (good)
CBRON, CBFEWS new sites
Ozone Monitoring
Background Air Pollution Monitoring (BAPMon) 5

6. Network of PAGASA Stations
Operational PAGASA Stations
57 Synoptic Stations
20 Agromet Stations
90 Climat/Rain Stations.

7. MAJOR SERVICES Weather Services Climatological and
Agrometeorological Services
Hydrometeorological Services
Space Technology Application

8. WEATHER SERVICES Operational Products Daily 24-hr Weather Forecast
Five-day Outlook for Selected Key Cities and Areas
Marine Shipping Forecast
Flight Documentation Folder (International, National or General Aviation Flights)
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin/Warning
Gale Warning

9. Climate Information, Monitoring and Prediction
El Niño/La Niña Advisories
Seasonal Rainfall Outlook
Monthly Situation and Outlook
Operational Products
Ozone Monitoring
Dry Spell Outlook
CLIMATE VARIABILITY / CLIMATE CHANGE-studies
Farm Weather Forecasts and Advisories (FWFA)
Climate Impact Assessment for Phil. Agriculture
Tropical Cyclone Warning And Advisories
AGROCLIMATIC SERVICES

10. Weather Causing Phenomena in the Philippines
NORTHEAST MONSOON (AMIHAN)
TROPICAL CYCLONE L L L L
SOUTHWEST MONSOON (HABAGAT)
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE

11. Climate Classifications: Type I
Two pronounced season dry from November to April and wet for the rest of the year. maximum rain period coincides with the peak of the southwest monsoon (July to September).
Type II
No dry season with a very pronounced maximum rainfall from November to April and wet for the rest of the year.
Type III
Season not very pronounced relatively dry November to April and wet for the rest of the year
Type IV
Rainfall more or less evenly distributed through out the year

12. Tropical Cyclones tracks in the Western North Pacific (WNP)
Tracks of tropical cyclones that formed in the Western North Pacific (WNP) during the period TC ( 1148 entered the PAR) 66% of TC in in WNP enter or formed in the PAR
*Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2006). Updating Tropical Cyclone climatology in the PAR., Phil. Met-Hydro Congress 2006.

13. Number of Tropical Cyclones
Monthly frequency of T.C. entering the PAR and crossing the Philippines ( ) 15 10
0.4 13 5
0.3 7 9 17
0.5 29 27
1.0 48 43
1.6
117 75
3.3
121 62
3.2
100 72
3.0 64 84
2.6 78
2.1 33 46
1.4 20 40 60 80
120
140
160
180
200
Number of Tropical Cyclones
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Months
Mean
Crossing Philippines
Number of Tropical Cyclones which
did not cross the Philippines
Peak month of T.C. activity is from July to October
Most number of T.C. crossing the Philippines are during October and November
*Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2006). Updating Tropical Cyclone climatology in the PAR., Phil. Met-Hydro Congress 2006.

14. Vulnerability to Extreme Weather Events
The Ormoc catastrophic flash flood (November 5, 1991): More than 5000 people perished. Unusually heavy, continuous rains brought by Trop.Storm Uring caused landslides and flashfloods and dam-break-like effect at the collapse of Anilao Bridge
Cherry Hill tragedy (August 1999): Three consecutive days of persistent moderate to heavy rains caused mud to cascade into the Cherry Hill leaving 378 houses damaged and 58 people killed
Baguio-La Trinidad landslides (July 2001): A record-breaking 24-hour rainfall of millimeters was registered at Baguio City causing widespread landslides and flashfloods, killing 85 persons in Baguio and La Trinidad area alone. Due to Typhoon Feria
Payatas garbage-slide (July 10, 2000): Continuous moderate to heavy monsoon rains over Metro Manila for several days caused the collapse of the Payatas garbage pile, resulting in 224 deaths and 100 houses destroyed

15. Extreme Weather Events: Tragedies after tragedies…
Camiguin flashfloods (November 7, 2001): Heavy continuous rains for about 10 hours caused flashfloods carrying landslide debris of boulders, uprooted trees, loose soil, etc. rushing from the mountainside burying 134 residents alive and damaging vegetation and structures.
Southern Leyte-Surigao disaster (December 2003): Several landslides and flash-floods in Mindanao and Southern Leyte caused by days of persistent rains resulted in 198 deaths in S. Leyte and Mindanao (Agusan- Surigao)
Aurora-Infanta floods (November-December 2004): Heavy rains triggered major landslides; cleansed the forests of its debris resulting in heavy damage and casualty downstream along rivers and coastal areas in eastern Luzon (1,068 dead, damage estimate - P7,615.98M)

16. Vulnerability to Extreme Weather Events
GUINSAUGON LANDSLIDE
The whole island of Leyte experienced more than 300% of normal rainfall in February
These extreme weather events have one thing in common – persistent torrential rains, causing landslides and flash floods, killing people and destroying properties along its path.

17. Plans for these 2 weeks workshop
Evaluation of the six available models run in CCAM at 60 Km resolution
Compute for the projected changes for the Philippines:
2041 to 2060 – near future
2081 to 2100 – end of the 21st century
Parameters
Precipitation
Maximum, Minimum and Mean Temperature
Relative Humidity, Mean Sea Level Pressure
Winds, Evaporation
Detection of tropical cyclones

18. Lastly… To learn how to install and use CCAM
To have a trial version of CCAM?

19. THANK YOU
“tracking the sky helping the country”