1. Business Cycle Factsheet
Wouter Jonkers
Statistics Netherlands
February 21st, 2011
New York

2. Background
Monitoring business cycle in general and economic crisis in particular;
Main finding:
Most important lack not: number of indicators and timeliness;
But: “Statistical storytelling”

3. Background (2) Time Degree of integration Single Combined Integrated
Now/future
Tendency surveys
- Business Cycle Tracer
New products:
Radars
Coherent indicator sets
New indicators
Month
Short term statistics
Quarter
Quarterly national accounts
Year
Structural business statistics
National accounts

4. Components Business Cycle Factsheet

5. And now on line

6. General features
In statistical system between monthly statistics and national (quarterly) accounts
Realtime; “pictures” are never revised
Visualizations/interactive: easy to “read” and interpret

7. Selecting indicators: Business cycle tracer
Indicators must have a cyclical course
Balanced set
Sufficiently long time series
Timely available
Large adjustments undesirable
More or less coincident

8. Selecting indicators: Radars
Strong correlation with the target indicator
All main aspects covered
Timely available
Again: large adjustments/breaks undesirable
Normalised values: (Actual value-Long term average)/Standard deviation.

9. Thank you for your attention!

10. Business Cycle Tracer

11. Business Cycle Dashboard

12. Business Cycle tracer indicator

13. Exports Radar

14. Household Consumption Radar

15. Investment Radar