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Senior Adviser, Fluoride Action Network

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1 Senior Adviser, Fluoride Action Network
Major US-government funded brain study should end fluoridation worldwide Paul Connett, PhD Senior Adviser, Fluoride Action Network FluorideACTION.net NZ Parliament, Feb 22, 2018

2 A personal introduction
I am a retired professor of chemistry I taught chemistry at St. Lawrence University in Canton, NY from 1983 to 2006. I specialized in environmental chemistry and toxicology In July 1996, my wife asked me to review the literature on the fluoridation debate

3 Ellen Connett

4 I was director of the Fluoride Action Network from 2000 to 2015.
In 2010, I co-authored the book The Case Against Fluoride

5 James Beck, MD, PhD, retired professor of Physics from Calgary

6 HS Micklem, D Phil (Oxon), retired professor of Biology from Edinburgh

7 Contains 80 pages of references to the Scientific literature
Book published by Chelsea Green October, 2010 Can be ordered on Amazon.com Contains 80 pages of references to the Scientific literature

8 Outline of my talk US government-funded study should end fluoridation. This study is the “tip of the iceberg” of IQ studies. Using the public water supply to deliver ANY medicine is a reckless thing to do. Fluoridation ignores nature’s “guideline” for babies. Children are being over-exposed to fluoride in fluoridated communities. In addition to the brain, fluoride can harm other tissues at low levels. The evidence that swallowing fluoride lowers tooth decay is extremely weak. Most countries don’t fluoridate their water but their children’s teeth have not suffered. NZ should use the safer and cheaper ways of fighting tooth decay as practiced in Europe.

9 “Sweden rejected fluoridation in the 1970s…Our children have not suffered greater tooth decay ...and in turn our citizens have not borne the other hazards fluoride may cause. In any case,since fluoride is readily available in toothpaste, you don’t have to force it n people.” (2010) Arvid Carlsson Nobel Prize for Medicine in 2000

10 1. US government funded brain study should end fluoridation worldwide

11 The Bashash et al., 2017 study

12 This was a 12-year multi-million dollar funded study
The Bashash et al., 2017 study This was a 12-year multi-million dollar funded study

13 The funding agencies U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH)
U.S. National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Institute of Public Health, Ministry of Health of Mexico.

14 The affiliated institutions of the authors
University of Toronto University of Michigan School of Public Health Indiana University School of Dentistry Faculty of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, McGill University Center for Human Growth and Development, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor Harvard School of Public Health Icahn School of Medicine, Mount Sinai, NY, NY National Institute of Perinatology, Mexico City

15 The authors This study was done by a group of researchers who have produced over 50 papers on the cognitive health of children as related to environmental exposure to other toxics like lead and mercury.

16 Study details In this study the authors carefully controlled for many potential confounding factors such as: exposure to lead and mercury, Socio-economic status, Smoking, alcohol use and Health problems during pregnancy

17

18 Examined over 300 mother-offspring pairs
The study Examined over 300 mother-offspring pairs The mothers’ exposure to fluoride during pregnancy was determined via analysis of their urine (this is a measure of total fluoride exposure regardless of its source)

19 The study results The cognitive function (e.g. IQ) of the women’s offspring was measured at age 4 and again at 6-12 years For every 1 mg/L increase in the mother’s urine F level the children lost an average of 5-6 IQ points, a very large effect. A 1 mg/L difference in urine F would be roughly the difference between living in a fluoridated area of the USA compared to a non-fluoridated area.

20 Mother’s urine F versus child’s IQ (age 4 years)
Ken Perrott and those who follow him will claim that the wide degree of scatter in the data means the findings of this study are unreliable. That is an incorrect interpretation of this graph and the study. The effect size is very large (decrease by 5-6 IQ points per 1 mg/L increase in urine F) and is highly statistically significant. The fact that urine F can only explain a small amount of the variation of IQ does not invalidate the finding. Rather, it is a reflection that there are many other factors that affect IQ, most of which are essentially random with respect to F exposure. For example, individual genetics plays a huge role in IQ (it explains 80% or more of variation in IQ), therefore it would not be possible for F to explain more than the small remaining portion of variation in IQ. Most studies of other developmental neurotoxins like Pb and Hg find very similar low correlation coefficients, yet there is no debate that their findings are valid.

21 Same graph with expanded scale

22 The study results (cont.)
The findings were highly statistically significant, and were undiminished even after controlling for all measured potential confounders. For the testing at age 4, no lower threshold was found down to the lowest maternal urine F levels measured (0.2 ppm)

23 Relating Bashash to NZ The range of urinary fluoride levels in the Mexico City pregnant women are almost identical to the range found in Palmerston North by Brough et al, 2015 The exact median and quartile values for Bashash are 0.82 (0.64, 1.07) mg/L urine F. Brough found a median concentration of 0.82 (0.62, 1.03) mg/L urine F. Note the numbers in parenthesis are the 25th and 75th percentile values

24 Chris Neurath comments
 The exposures in the Bashash study are about as similar to those in New Zealand as you could get. NZ promoters can not argue that the Bashash study exposure levels were higher than in New Zealand, and therefore not applicable, because in fact they are exactly the same.

25 Brough et al., 2015

26 Same graph, with the ranges of exposure for pregnant women in NZ

27 What was the ADA’s response to this study?

28 What the principle author of the study said:

29 2. The 2017 Bashash study is the tip of the Iceberg of fluoride-IQ studies

30 IQ studies Since 1991, there have been 59 IQ studies (from China, India, Iran, Mexico and NZ). 52 of them have shown lower IQ among children in “high” fluoride villages compared to “low” fluoride villages.

31 The Harvard Meta-analysis
In 2012, Choi et al (the team included Philippe Grandjean) published a meta-analysis of 27 IQ studies

32 Harvard Meta-analysis of IQ studies
Environmental Health Perspectives, 2012 Oct;120(10):

33 Harvard meta-analysis of 27 studies
The Harvard team acknowledged that there were weaknesses in many of the studies However, they stressed that the results were remarkably consistent In 26 of the 27 studies average IQ in the “high fluoride” village was lower than the “low fluoride village Average lowering was 7 IQ points

34 Fluoridation proponents have argued that the concentrations in the “high” fluoride villages were not relevant to water fluoridation in the US.

35 They are wrong!

36

37 Water fluoridated in NZ at 0.85 ppm (average

38 Concentration versus Dose
When you are relating a study finding harm to your own community you to have to compare DOSES in mg/day not CONCENTRATIONS in mg/liter. Dose depends on how much water (how many liters) you drink. A high water consumer drinking water at 0.85 mg/Liter (ppm) could get more fluoride than a low water consumer at 2 mg/Liter (ppm)

39 For specific ages and bodyweights
A better comparison is to use DOSAGES Measured as mg /kilogram bodyweight /day NOTE: the same dose in mg/day will have a greater toxic effect on a 4 kg baby than on a 20 kg child

40 Gluckman and Skegg (2014) Health Effects of Water Fluoridation: a Review of the Scientific Evidence. A review commissioned by the Prime Minister of NZ’s Chief Science Advisor Sir Peter Gluckman and the Royal Society of New Zealand’s president Sir David Skegg (released August 22, 2014) 

41 “…the fluoride exposures in these studies were many (up to 20) times higher than any that are experienced in New Zealand or other CWF communities” Gluckman and Skegg, Aug 22, 2014

42 Water fluoridated in NZ at 0.85 ppm (average

43

44 Xiang et al. (2003 a,b) Compared IQ of children in two villages:
Low Fluoride Village Average F in well water = 0.36 ppm (Range = ppm) High Fluoride Village Average F in well water = 2.5 ppm (Range 0.57 – 4.5 ppm) Controlled for lead exposure and iodine intake, and retrospectively for arsenic Found a drop of 5-10 IQ points across the whole age range between the two villages

45 Xiang et al. (2003 a,b) Ave. Level = 2.5 ppm Ave. level = 0.36 ppm F
MALES Ave. Level = 2.5 ppm Ave. level = 0.36 ppm F

46 Xiang sub-divided the “High” fluoride village into 5 groups (A-E)
with fluoride concentrations ranging from 0.75 to 4.16 ppm

47

48

49

50 This data would suggest that IQ is lowered somewhere between 0
This data would suggest that IQ is lowered somewhere between 0.75 and 1.5 ppm Average in NZ = 0.85 ppm

51

52 Quanyong Xiang, Paul Connett, Chris Neurath and Bill Hirzy
outside the EPA Headquarters in Washington, DC Sept 8, 2014

53

54 A dose of 1.4 mg/day lowers IQ in Xiang study by 5 IQ points

55

56 Intake from the diet (NZ)

57 Intake from toothpaste

58 A dose of 1.4 mg/day lowers IQ in Xiang study by 5 IQ points

59 Why a loss of 5 IQ points is so serious at the population level

60 IQ and population Number of Kids With a Specific IQ IQ 100

61 IQ and population IQ Number of Kids With a Specific IQ Intellectually
impaired IQ 100 Very Bright

62 An IQ of 70 is a level of intellectual impairment at the threshold of warranting institutionanlisation or possibly, under current NZ disability policy, intensively supported non-institutional living.

63 IQ and population Number of Kids With a Specific IQ IQ

64 IQ and population IQ Number of Kids With a Specific IQ Intellectually
impaired IQ Very Bright

65 “Recently there have been a number of reports from China and other areas …that have claimed an association between high water fluoride levels and minimally reduced intelligence (measured as IQ) in children.… Gluckman and Skegg, Aug 22, 2014

66 …the claimed shift of less than one IQ point suggests that this is likely to be a measurement or statistical artifact of no functional significance” Gluckman and Skegg, Aug 22, 2014

67 This is incorrect. Gluckman and Skegg confused a drop of half a standard deviation (= 7 IQ points) with half an IQ point.

68 Gluckman and Skegg made a correction
Gluckman and Skegg made a correction. CORRECTED VERSION: “…the claimed shift of less than one standard deviation suggests that this is likely to be a measurement or statistical artifact of no functional significance”

69 There are two problems with this “correction
There are two problems with this “correction.” 1) Very few people will know what a standard deviation is for an IQ curve is (it is 14 IQ points) 2) Gluckman and Skegg have changed the premise of the sentence without changing the conclusion

70 Gluckman and Skegg, 2014 “…the claimed shift of less than one IQ point suggests that this is likely to be a measurement or statistical artifact of no functional significance” CORRECTED VERSION “…the claimed shift of less than one standard deviation suggests that this is likely to be a measurement or statistical artifact of no functional significance”

71 Gluckman and Skegg, 2014 CORRECTED “CORRECTED” VERSION “…the claimed shift of 7 IQ points suggests that this is likely to be a measurement or statistical artifact of no functional significance

72 Gluckman and Skegg, 2014 CORRECTED “CORRECTED” VERSION “…the claimed shift of 7 IQ points suggests that this is likely to be a measurement or statistical artifact of no functional significance Changing the shift from less than one IQ point to seven IQ points makes the conclusion preposterous!

73 IQ and population IQ Number of Kids With a Specific IQ Intellectually
impaired IQ Very Bright

74 On the individual level the last children in society who need their IQ lowered are children from low-income families – who are precisely those being targeted for fluoridation!

75 In other words, the children we are trying to help are going to be hurt most

76 Proponents of fluoridation have only offered one human study that they say negates all the other human studies that have found a lowering of IQ associated with fluoride exposure. This is the study from Dunedin by Broadbent et al., 2015

77 Broadbent study fatally flawed
Broadbent had very few controls: 991 lived in fluoridated area, and only 99 in non-fluoridated Broadbent et al did not use the proper measure of fluoride exposure. They should have used total F exposure. Instead they used only exposure from fluoridated water. In New Zealand during the 1970s, when the study children were young, F supplements were often prescribed to those living in unfluoridated areas. Estimates of the total F intake for those living in fluoridated areas and those in unfluoridated found that there was very little difference in total F intake, because of the F supplements (Hirzy, 2016; Osmunson, 2017).

78 Broadbent study fatally flawed
Therefore, the study essentially compared two groups, both with very similar total F exposure. The study had insufficient power to detect an effect. It is not surprising it found no difference in IQ. It also did not control for several important potential confounders: Lead; mother’s IQ; rural vs. urban; and manganese

79 3. Using the public water supply to deliver any medicine is a reckless thing to do

80 I hope we never again use the public water supply to deliver any medical treatment. In addition to depriving millions of people of their right to informed consent to medicine, it is reckless thing to do!

81 Fluoridation is a reckless practice
It is reckless to expose a whole population to a toxic substance. This takes no account of the fact that some people will be far more sensitive than others. It is reckless to add a known toxic substance to the public drinking water with no control over dose. To make matters worse, the fluoride used is not pharmaceutical grade but a hazardous waste product from the phosphate fertilizer industry!

82 Fluoridation level used in NZ
The average concentration used in NZ is 0.85 ppm. 0.85 ppm might seem a low concentration but in reality it is 170 – 850 times the level in mothers’ milk in NZ It is reckless to expose bottle-fed babies hundreds of times more fluoride than nature intended.

83 4. Fluoridation ignores nature’s guideline for new-born babies

84 Mothers’ milk protects our babies from early exposure to fluoride
Range of F levels in mothers’ milk in NZ = ppm (Chowdhury et al, 1990)

85 170 - 850 x level in NZ mothers’ milk
Water fluoridation removes nature’s protection when babies are bottle-fed with fluoridated water Average F in NZ = 0.85 ppm x level in NZ mothers’ milk

86 “One wonders what …an increase in the exposure to fluoride, such as occurs in bottle-fed infants …may mean for the development of the brain and the other organs…” 1978 Arvid Carlsson Nobel Prize for Medicine in 2000

87 5. The evidence that Children are being over-exposed to fluoride in Fluoridated communities

88 CDC, 2010 41%

89 In NZ "44.5% of 8–30-year-olds had some dental fluorosis, with the majority of fluorosis being questionable or very mild; moderate dental fluorosis was rare (2.0%), as was severe fluorosis (0.0%),” MOH, Oral Health Survey, 2009 (“Our Oral Health”)

90 Impacts up to 50% of tooth surface
Mild Dental Fluorosis Affects 8.6% of US teens

91 It would be reckless to assume that when fluoride is damaging the baby’s growing tooth cells it is not damaging other developing tissues.

92 6. In addition to the brain fluoride harms many other tissues
More on IQ studies

93 NRC (2006)

94 Fluoride harms many tissues
Fluoride damages teeth (dental fluorosis) Fluoride damages bones (skeletal fluorosis -first symptoms identical to arthritis) Fluoride is an endocrine disruptor Fluoride lowers thyroid function Fluoride accumulates in the human pineal gland Fluoride damages the brain…

95 “it is apparent that fluorides have the ability to
National Research Council (2006): Fluoride & the Brain “it is apparent that fluorides have the ability to interfere with the functions of the brain.”

96 7. The evidence that swallowing fluoride lowers tooth decay is extremely weak

97 In Ontario “The magnitude of [fluoridation’s] effect is not large
in absolute terms, is often not statistically significant, and may not be of clinical significance.” SOURCE: David Locker for the Ontario Ministry of Health & Long Term Care, 1999

98 In the York Review reported that they could find no “grade A” studies supporting the efficacy of fluoridation for fighting tooth decay

99 After 70 years there has been NO individual-based, Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) for water fluoridation!

100 In June 2015, The Cochrane Collaboration reported on a review of fluoridation’s benefits
The Cochrane Collaboration is   acknowledged internationally as the gold standard in evidenced based reviews of health science. 

101 The Cochrane Review (June 2015)
  The authors could find NO high quality research that showed that: 1) It provided any benefit to adults 2) It provided additional benefits over and above topically applied fluoride 3) It reduced inequalities among children from different socio-economic groups or that 4) Tooth decay increased in communities when fluoridation is stopped.  

102 The Cochrane Review (June, 2015)
In addition, the Cochrane team was not convinced that studies showing that water fluoridation reduces decay in children are applicable to today’s society, as nearly all the studies reviewed (dating back to the 1940’s – 1960’s) had a high risk of bias and were conducted prior to the availability of fluoride toothpaste and other sources of fluoride which we have today.

103 The largest survey of dental fluorosis and dental caries in the USA
In , the U.S. the National Institute for Dental Research collected dental fluorosis and dental caries data for 39,000 children from 84 communities

104 The largest survey of dental fluorosis and dental caries in the USA
This is the story of two relationships – one strong the other weak

105 NIDR DATA ( )

106 Dental Fluorosis versus level of fluoride

107 Tooth decay versus level of fluoride

108 The 2016 survey of dental statistics in NZ

109

110

111 their children’s teeth
8. Most countries don’t fluoridate their water but their children’s teeth have not suffered

112 The vast majority of countries worldwide do not fluoridate their water (including 97% of Europe) but their teeth are no worse than those that do

113 SOURCE: World Health Organization. (Data online)

114 The probable explanation for this lack of difference in tooth decay is the mechanism of fluoride’s action on the teeth

115 CDC, MMWR, 48(41); , Oct 22, 1999 “…laboratory and epidemiologic research suggest that fluoride prevents dental caries predominantly after eruption of the tooth into the mouth, and its actions primarily are topical…”

116 Robin Whyman concurs: “It is generally accepted that the principle caries protective effect from fluoride is topical” Robin Whyman is Clinical Director Oral Health Services at the Hawke's Bay District Health Board, Chair of the NZ Dental Council and past Chief Oral Health Advisors. He advised all the Health Select Committee members before the Hearings last year.

117 If fluoride works primarily on the outside of the tooth why swallow it?
Why put it in the drinking water and force it on people who don’t want it?

118 And why force this unpopular practice on the remaining unfluoridated communities in NZ (over half), many of which have fought hard for years to keep it out?

119 8. NZ should use the safer and cheaper ways of fighting tooth decay as practiced in Europe More on IQ studies

120 Scotland  Instead of water fluoridation, the Scottish Government has a Childsmile program, which: a) teaches toothbrushing in nursery-schools; b) provides healthy snacks & drinks in school; c) provides dental health and dietary advice to both children and parents, and d) provides annual dental check-ups and treatment if required including fluoride varnish applications.

121

122

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125 Childsmile Cost savings
“Glasgow researchers found that the scheme had reduced the cost of treating dental disease in five-year-olds by more than half between 2001 and 2010.” (BBC, Scotland)

126 Childsmile Cost savings
One of the reasons Childsmile saves money is that with early access to parents it reduces the incidence of Baby Bottle Tooth Decay, which often leads to extractions under general anathesia (GA)) which are very expensive).

127 In short our kids need MORE BRUSHING! MORE FRUIT AND VEGETABLES! LESS SUGAR! Less sugar means less tooth decay and less OBESITY Less obesity means less diabetes and fewer heart attacks In other words education to promote less sugar consumption is a very good investment!

128 to fight tooth decay and obesity.
We need EDUCATION not FLUORIDATION to fight tooth decay and obesity.

129 Baby Bottle Tooth Decay
More on IQ studies

130 Baby Bottle Tooth Decay
This condition is caused by babies sucking on bottles of fruit juice, sugared water, milk or even coca cola for hours on end.

131 Baby Bottle Tooth Decay
Note – the bottom teeth are less affected because they are protected by the tongue.

132 Baby Bottle Tooth Decay

133 Around the fluoridated world
Even though there is no difference in the prevalence of BBTD between F and NF communities (there is a difference between high income and low income families) Proponents of fluoridation use pictures of baby bottle tooth decay to promote fluoridation

134 Medical officer of health Dr
Medical officer of health Dr. Hazel Lynn holds up a picture of a child's teeth. Lynn said water fluoridation prevents tooth decay and is a safe practice. (Owen Sound, Sun Times, Jan 31, 2014)

135 In NZ In NZ the same misuse of data on BBTD is used to claim that there is a difference between GA extractions in young children between F and NF communities

136

137 A reality check 34 7 00.88% 11,600 16.35 74,100 208 800 Taranaki
Total # of GA surgeries for Age 5 children ( ) Population Number of Age 5 children % of Age 5 children having GA surgery ( ) Fluoridated Hawera 34 11,600 208 16.35 Non-fluoridated New Plymouth 7 74,100 800 00.88%

138 These kind of tactics Would not be necessary if science was on the promoters’ side – but it is not. That is why after 8 years there has been no detailed or documented response to our book The Case Against Fluoride.

139 Contains 80 pages of references to the Scientific literature
Book published by Chelsea Green October, 2010 Can be ordered on Amazon.com Contains 80 pages of references to the Scientific literature

140 SUMMARY

141 Fluoridation is: Unusual (most countries don’t do it),
Unnatural (the level of fluoride in mothers’ milk is extremely low), Unethical (it violates the individual’s right to informed consent to medical treatment) Unsafe (there are many health concerns) Unprotective of the unborn child and the bottle-fed infant Ineffective (evidence of benefit is very weak) Unnecessary (there are better ways of fighting tooth decay)

142 CONCLUSIONS

143 Water fluoridation is an obsolete practice and it is time to end it in NZ!

144 No government should be deliberately adding a neurotoxic (i. e
No government should be deliberately adding a neurotoxic (i.e. brain damaging) substance to the public water supply

145 I would recommend that you EITHER immediately stop fluoridation in order to protect your most precious resource

146 NZ’s most precious resource

147 OR ENACT a 5-year moratorium, while: a) Scientists confirm or refute the fact that fluoride lowers IQ at current exposure levels in fluoridated communities and b) NZ puts in place Childsmile programs throughout the country, while continuing to carefully monitor tooth decay

148 At the very least, MPs should oppose the bill that would make fluoridation mandatory, and leave the decision to local communities.

149 Annette King on DHBs "The Minister said that population health is best addressed by elected district health boards at a local level.  They are required by the Minister of Health, who has absolute say over what they do through the letter of expectation, to carry out the wishes of the Government of the day. So the idea that they have got some autonomy in making decisions around health is only very, very at the edges, if at all."Annette King, 1st Reading of Health (Fluoridation of Drinking Water) Amendment Bill

150 More on IQ studies RESOURCES

151 NRC (2006)

152 Contains 80 pages of references to the Scientific literature
Book published by Chelsea Green October, 2010 Can be ordered on Amazon.com Contains 80 pages of references to the Scientific literature

153 FluorideACTION.net Largest health database on fluoride in the world (click on “researchers”) Videos: Professional Perspectives on Water Fluoridation (28 mins) (click on FAN-TV)

154

155 FluorideACTION.net Other videos at FAN -TV Ten Facts on Fluoride (20 minutes) Interview with Chris Bryson (The Fluoride Deception); John Colquhoun; Hardy Limeback; Bill Osmunson and Bill Hirzy.

156 EXTRA SLIDES

157 Broadbent study fatally flawed
NOTE: The estimates of total F were made by Hirzy et al (2016) and by Osmunson et al (2017) and published in peer-reviewed journals. Using Broadbent’s own data, they estimated the difference in exposure between the fluoridated and unfluoridated children was only 0.2 mg/day and the mean intake was 0.6 mg/day. This small exposure difference would result in too small a difference in IQ to be detected in Broadbent’s study. In response, Broadbent admitted he had not used total F intake. He then said he did a new analysis using total F intake and said he could not detect an effect. That is exactly what his critics predicted: the difference in F exposure was too small to detect an effect on IQ.

158

159

160

161 3. The Fluoride Action Network And other environmental and health groups have taken US EPA to court

162

163 We are calling upon the US EPA them to end the deliberate addition of fluoride to the water supply under provisions in the Toxic Substances and Control Act (TSCA)

164

165 December 21, 2017: The Court denies EPA’s motion to dismiss our case

166 On Feb 7, 2018, denies EPA’s motion to limit our case to the administrative record, granting FAN full discovery

167

168 NIDR conducted the largest survey of tooth decay ever conducted in the US (1986-7)
The teeth of over 39,000 children in 84 communities were examined (Brunelle & Carlos, 1990). They measured tooth decay as DECAYED, MISSING and FILLED SURFACES (DMFS) There are 4 or 5 surfaces to a tooth – so this method is 4 to 5 times more sensitive than DMFT.

169 Average difference (for 5 - 17 year olds) in DMFS
Children (aged 5-17) who had lived all their lives in a fluoridated community 2.8 DMFS F Average difference (for year olds) in DMFS

170 3.4 DMFS NF Children (aged 5-17) who had lived all their
lives in a non-fluoridated community 3.4 DMFS NF Average difference (for year olds) in DMFS

171 3.4 DMFS NF 2.8 F DMFS The largest US survey of tooth decay
Brunelle & Carlos, 1990 3.4 DMFS NF 2.8 DMFS F Average difference (for year olds) in DMFS

172 3.4 DMFS NF 2.8 F DMFS The largest US survey of tooth decay
Brunelle & Carlos, 1990 3.4 DMFS NF 2.8 DMFS F Average difference (for year olds) in DMFS = 0.6 tooth surfaces

173 Playing with numbers: How you can make a small ABSOLUTE saving in tooth decay look Big!

174

175 TABLE 6 Mean DMFS of U.S. Children with Permanent Teeth By Age and Water Fluoridation Exposure
Life-Long Water Fluoridation Exposure Mean DMFS* No Water Fluoridation Exposure: Mean DMFS* Age Percent Difference 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 All Ages 0.03 0.14 0.36 0.64 1.05 1.64 2.12 2.46 3.43 4.05 5.53 6.02 7.01 2.79 0.10 0.14 0.53 0.79 1.33 1.85 2.63 2.97 4.41 5.18 6.03 7.41 8.59 3.39 70 32 19 21 11 17 22 8 18 *All means adjusted to age and gender distribution of total U.S. population ages 5-17. 1.) 3.39 – 2.79 = 0.6 Tooth surface out of 128 = 0.47% Tooth surfaces saved! 2.) Authors: 0.6/3.39 x 100 = 17.7 ~ 18 % Difference

176 In Ontario “The magnitude of [fluoridation’s] effect is not large
in absolute terms, is often not statistically significant, and may not be of clinical significance.” SOURCE: David Locker for the Ontario Ministry of Health & Long Term Care, 1999

177 Chris Neurath comments
I compared the NZ study urine F data to the Bashash study urine F data.  Importantly, both were in pregnant women, so they are directly comparable.  Both studies had almost exactly the same median urine F values and very similar interquartile ranges.  Therefore the distribution of urine F levels in both studies was very similar.  The exposures in the Bashash study are about as similar to those in New Zealand as you could get. NZ promoters can not argue that the Bashash study exposure levels were higher than in New Zealand, and therefore not applicable, because in fact they are exactly the same.

178 Same graph, with the ranges of exposure for pregnant women in NZ

179 Concentration versus Dose
When you are relating a study finding harm to your own community you to have to compare DOSES in mg/day not CONCENTRATIONS in mg/liter. Dose depends on how much water (how many liters) you drink. A high water consumer drinking water at say 0.85 mg/Liter (ppm) could get more fluoride than a low water consumer at 2 mg/Liter (ppm) e.g. Someone drinking 3 liters of water per day at 0.85 mg/Liters would get 2.55 mg/day Someone drinking I liter per day of water at 2 ppm would get 2 mg/day


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