1. Climate change impacts on broadacre farming – Peter Hayman

2. Brief from Mark….
temperature / rainfall impacts on farming systems in southern Australia:
Projected changes – 10, 20, 30, 50 years ahead
Likely effects on crop production
Possible responses
El Nino effect this year

12. Brief from Mark….
temperature / rainfall impacts on farming systems in southern Australia:
Projected changes – 10, 20, 30, 50 years ahead
Likely effects on crop production
Possible responses
El Nino effect this year

13. What destroyed the sand castle ? The wave or tide ?

16. Mark’s brief
10, 20, 30, 50 years ahead

20. For a 75% chance of meeting the 2􀃝C limit we can emit no more
than 1,000 billion tonnes of CO2 between 2000 and 2050.
By 2013 we had released 391 Billion Tonnes

22. Seven main changes 1. Mean temperature: 2. Extreme heat 3. Frost risk
4. Rainfall (autumn winter spring summer)
5. Rainfall intensity
6. Evaporation
7. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
Richard Eckard: Physical…Policy….Peripheral

23. Seven main changes
Mean temperature: faster growth – pest disease spectrum.
A lot of ecology is driven by temperature
Quicker development is a much greater issue for perennial crops than annual crops

26. Average maximum temperature (1957-2009)
September
October
Minnipa is hotter than Roseworthy
October much hotter than Sept
Increasingly people are using quicker varieties at Minnipa like Axe to affectively avoid moisture stress – drought avoidance
Data source is from SILO (Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence). Data analysis by SARDI Climate Applications.

27. Chance (%) of high temperatures
Minnipa
Roseworthy
Temp (C)
15-Sep
Minnipa Rose
15-Oct 30
3.6% %
16% % 35
0.2% %
3.5% %

28. Difficult to pick thresholds
No damage at 30, 20% loss at 32
Model becomes very sensitive to phenology.
Measurement and comparison is very sensitive to phenology.

29. TinyTag measuring temp/hum
Heat stress in wheat
TinyTag measuring temp/hum
Chamber
Heater
Thermostat control

31. Frost chamber at Australian Centre for Functional Genomics
Large GRDC investment in
phenotyping for frost tolerance in wheat and barley - short term ‘traffic light’ for varieties, long term foundation for breeding.

34. Testing Hypothesis of ENSO and spring days over 30
P values. <0.1 marked in bold

36. 40%
Mean 23°
Std 2.2°
60%
Mean 32°
Std 4.5°

37. Seven main changes 1. Mean temperature: 2. Extreme heat 3. Frost risk
4. Rainfall (autumn winter spring summer)
5. Rainfall intensity
6. Evaporation
7. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
Richard Eckard: Physical…Policy….Peripheral

38. Frost Quicker development Drying in spring
Change in weather patterns and inflow of polar air

40. Difficult to pick thresholds
No damage at 30, 20% loss at 32
Model becomes very sensitive to phenology.
Measurement and comparison is very sensitive to phenology.

43. Port Pirie GSR
(Met station 21043)

44. Port Pirie

45. Port Pirie
The 2013 GSR was decile 8

46. What destroyed the sand castle ? The wave or tide ?

47. Port Pirie
The 2013 column shows that between 2004 and 2013 there have been two decile 1 years, three decile 4, one decile 5, one decile 6, one decile 7, one decile 8 and one decile 9 year.

48. Port Pirie

50. "The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks
"The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks." - Dr. Wallace Broecker
However – confidence in warming, heat events
Rainfall is most worrying but also most uncertain