1. EXTRAPOLATE Ex-ante tool for ranking policy alternatives
Uganda Dairy Workshop
6 December 2005
Kampala, Uganda

2. Overview The issue, in context Policy analysis - EXTRAPOLATE
Stakeholders, constraints and outcomes
Policy issues
Using EXTRAPOLATE for policy analysis
The optimal combination of policy interventions
Impact

3. The issue, in context 1993 Dairy Master Plan
Liberalize milk marketing
Creation of a DDA
Privatize the Dairy Corporation
Need for comprehensive dairy policy to guide sector
Request from MAAIF & PMA Secretariat for help develop a dairy policy

4. The challenge to PPLPI
To ensure that smallholders’ constraints are addressed
policies based on equity, rather than just on profitability
To ensure that marginalized groups are represented
addressing the needs of the informal sector

5. The process
Broad stakeholder network (Govt; NGOs, producers and traders associations; private sector; NARS
Three stakeholder workshops (EXTRAPOLATE)
Dairy policy task force (MAAIF; PMA Secretariat; DDA; UBOS; NAGRC)
TCP Proposal to develop a policy
Supporting studies:
Analysis of livestock sector policy
Political economy of the livestock sector
poverty mapping (UBOS)
GIS layers (collaboration with ILRI)

6. Policy analysis
Analyse the effects of existing policies on different groups of producers and consumers
Predict the impact of changing institutional and market environments on existing policy outcomes
Predict the impact of policy changes on different groups of livestock producers and consumers

7. Policy analysis
Analyse the effects of existing policies on different groups of producers and consumers
Predict the impact of changing institutional and market environments on existing policy outcomes
Predict the impact of policy changes on different groups of livestock producers and consumers

8. Model for pro-poor policy analysis
Actual beneficiaries
Groups of potential beneficiaries
Constraints
Opportunity
Policy change
Key
Stakeholders
Trade-offs
Constraints

9. EXTRAPOLATE

10. EXTRAPOLATE: Stakeholders

11. EXTRAPOLATE: Constraints

12. EXTRAPOLATE: C → S s1 s2 s3
Score: 1-9 c1 8 5 c2 c3

13. EXTRAPOLATE: Outcomes
Outcomes are things that can be quantified that contribute
to the livelihood status of the stakeholders

14. EXTRAPOLATE: O → S s1 s2 s3 o1 o2 o3

15. EXTRAPOLATE: C → O o1 o2 o3 c1 c2 c3

16. EXTRAPOLATE: Current situation

17. EXTRAPOLATE: Policy changes

18. EXTRAPOLATE: P → C c1 c2 c3 p1 p2 p3

19. EXTRAPOLATE s1 s2 s3 c1 c2 c3 c1 c2 c3 o1 o2 o3 s1 s2 s3 p1 c1 o1 p2

20. EXTRAPOLATE s1 s2 s3 c1 c2 c3 c1 c2 c3 o1 o2 o3 s1 s2 s3 p1 c1 o1 p2

21. Stakeholder analysis - commodity chain
Informal
Formal
Source: ILRI 2003

22. Stakeholder groups Smallholder intensive (4) Smallholder extensive (2)
1-10 milking animals. Grade, including peri-urban
Smallholder extensive (2)
1-10 milking animals. Indigenous, low input
Mediumholder intensive (7)
11-30 milking animals. Grade & exotic
Mediumholder extensive (4)
11-30 milking animals. Indigenous, low input.
Large-scale producers (9)
> 30 milking animals. Grade & indigenous

23. Stakeholder groups Pastoralist (3) Agro-pastoralist (6)
> 30 milking animals. Cattle on the move
Agro-pastoralist (6)
> 30 milking animals. Semi-settled with crops
Informal traders (5)
Deals in raw unpackaged milk
Formal traders (8)
Deals in processed & packaged milk
Informal small processor (6)
Informal – small

24. Stakeholder groups Formal small processor (7)
Large processors and exporters (10)
(definition)
low-income rural consumer (1)
low income (definition) – rural
low-income urban consumer (1)
low income (definition) – urban
High income consumer (9)

25. Constraints Production and processing Consumption
Knowledge and skills
Access to fixed inputs
Cost and availability of variable inputs
Animal health and nutrition
Low-yielding cattle breeds
Consumption
Poor quality of milk and dairy products
Institutional constraints
Low demand
Market access
Quality control
Insecurity
Other constraints
Healthy labour force

26. Outcomes Increased production and sales Increased profit margins
Increased security of livestock assets
Improved nutritional status
Increased employment opportunities
Reduced environmental degradation

27. Policy issues Promote genetic improvement
Strengthen delivery of veterinary services
Provide appropriate extension services
Improved market infrastructure and information
Ensure quality control along the chain
Increase local consumption to build a strong domestic market
Promote efficiency in the input supply system
Increased access to credit facilities

28. EXTRAPOLATE – model diagram

29. EXTRAPOLATE – model elements

30. EXTRAPOLATE – model linkages

31. EXTRAPOLATE – model summaries

32. EXTRAPOLATE – model summaries

33. EXTRAPOLATE – analysis tools

34. EXTRAPOLATE – analysis tools
Wealthy producers/processors/consumers
Small-medium producers
Pastoralists and agro-pastoralists
Small processors & traders
Poor consumers

35. Promote genetic improvement
Small-medium producers
Pastoralists and agro-pastoralists

36. Strengthen vet service delivery

37. Provide appropriate extension services

38. Improve market infrastructure and info

39. Enforce quality control

40. Promote consumption

41. Improved access to inputs

42. Increase access to credit

43. Optimal combination of policies

44. Key elements of a pro-poor policy
Promote genetic improvement
Strengthen delivery of veterinary services
Provide appropriate extension services
Improved market infrastructure and information
Ensure quality control along the chain
Increase local consumption to build a strong domestic market
Promote efficiency in the input supply system
Increased access to credit facilities

45. Key elements of a pro-poor policy
This does NOT mean that genetic improvement and standards/regulation should be discouraged or dropped from the policy document – rather that when these broad policy outcomes are disaggregated into their component parts (laws, strategies, institutions etc.) great care needs to be taken to ensure that the poorer producers are not disadvantaged, and that their needs are also addressed.

46. Impact Already Expected more analytical approach to policy development
broader participation of stakeholders in the policy process
heightened awareness among stakeholders of how their constraints can be addressed by policy and institutional change
Expected
A suite of policies, and supporting legislation and institutional change, that address the needs of smallholder dairy producers and processors, and poor consumers
Increased capacity within the livestock sector to analyse and formulate policies, and tools available to assist with this

48. EXTRAPOLATE: Field development
Focus country
Topic
Partners
Uganda
Dairy
MAAIF; DDA; PMA; other stakeholders
Senegal
Small ruminants
PAPEL; DLS; herders organisations; private vets
Vietnam
Pigs
Hanoi Ag. Univ; DOAg.; GSO; NIAH; VSF
India (AP)
NRMPA; SBA; AHDept; NGOs
Peru
Camelids
CARE; CONACS; Min of Ag.; Planning Office