1. RESERVATION AVAILABILITY
WEEK 6:
RESERVATION AVAILABILITY

2. INTRODUCTION
The forecasting of room availability for the future is extremely important in the operational planning of a hotel. The three different types of forecasts we will discuss are:
The 10-day forecast
The 3-day forecast
The daily availability formula
Each of this calculations plays an important role in the day-to-day operation of the hotel. Included here is everything from planning how many staff members to schedule to how to order in the food & beverage area.

3. 10-Day Forecast
The 10day forecast is prepared by the front office manager. The forecast is then distributed to the other areas in the hotel, such as food & beverage and the housekeeping areas. Food & Beverage will use this forecast in planning the purchase of items used in this area as well as in scheduling employees to work. Based on the number of rooms reserved and the number of guests in, an accurately estimate of the number of meals to be sold over the three – meal periods can be made by the food & beverage looking at the trends that have occurred in the past. 

4. Example of 10day Forecast

5. The ten day forecast is going to project the number of rooms that will be occupied over each of the next 10days. This is accomplished by taking the number of rooms occupied last night and adding to this figure the number of reservations that have been taken for this date. Next the estimated number of check outs for the day is subtracted from this. Other factors that must be considered are the estimated number of reservations that will be received after the forecast is completed and the number of walk ins that are projected for the day

6. Three-Day Forecast

7. Daily Availability Formula
The daily availability formula is similar to the 10-day and 3day forecasts mentioned above. The major difference between the daily availability formula and the other forecasts is the amount of information utilized in the preparation of the daily formula. In the daily availability formula, the following items of information are used in its preparation.
Number of no shows
Number of cancellations
Number of under stays
Number of overstays
Number of rooms out of order

8. These items are forecasted for the day in question prior to the beginning of the days business.
The FOM needs this information to make decisions about the reduction of room rates for walk ins, to alert employees about the number of rooms that they will be responsible for selling on this day, and to work with other hotels in the area with regard to referral business. Without this information available first thing in the morning, it may not become apparent until after check out time how many rooms remain unsold. Many requests for lodging may have been turned away because of an erroneous belief that there would not be any rooms available. Information such as this could cause a reduction in the potential room revenue for the day.

9. When the daily availability formula is prepared, as it is in the 10-day and 3day forecast, it appears as follows:
Number of rooms in the hotel
Less: number of stay overs
Less: number of reservation
Equals: number of rooms available
There are a number of shortcomings in this method of preparing the daily availability formula. Missing is the consideration of the number of rooms that will be affected by such factors as were mentioned above. When these variables are taken into consideration, the formula will appear as follows:
Less: number of stay overs
Less: number of reservations
Plus: no of no shows
Plus: no of cancellations
Plus: under stays
Less: number of overstays
Less: number of out of order rooms
Equals: number of rooms available

10. One can calculate the number of stay overs by taking the number of rooms occupied last night and subtracting from it the number of rooms that are known to be checking out, based on the information given by guests.
Number of rooms occupied last night
Less: number of known check outs
Equals: number of stay overs
This stay over figure is, in all probability, incorrect because of two factors:
One that has the potential to increase it.
One that decreases the number of over stayers

21. Introduction