1. Not Approved for Public Release
USAF Update to DTC SAB
Dr. John Zapotocny
Chief Scientist
AF/A3WX
14 Sep 2016
Not Approved for Public Release

2. Not Approved for Public Release
Overview
Mission Overview
USAF Model Roadmap
Clouds from NWP
Exploitation “apps”

3. Not Approved for Public Release
USAF Weather Mission
Air Force weather Airmen provide GLOBAL environmental support to DoD (Air Force and Army) and the Intelligence Community
Mitigate environmental impacts to operations
Resource protection to critical assets
Global Power
Global Reach
Air Ops
Agile Combat Support
“Air Force weather enables Joint Warfighters to anticipate and exploit the weather...for air, ground, space, cyberspace and intel operations.” – Mission Statement
Army Ops
Global Vigilance
Special Ops
Space Weather

4. Air Force Weather Tiered production flow
Not Approved for Public Release
Air Force Weather Tiered production flow

5. Modeling Requirements
Not Approved for Public Release
Modeling Requirements
High Fidelity Clouds & Aerosols are the Driving Requirements
Layers of
Model
(1 x 1 km or better grid spacing)
Modeled Clouds
Modeled Chemical
Constituents
Modeled Aerosols
DUST
Spatial resolution: Horizontal: 1 x 1 km, Vertical: 100m (SFC 5000’) 1km above
Temporal resolution: 1hr steps for 0-24hrs, 3hr steps for 12-72hrs, 6hr steps for hrs
Quantify aerosol/cloud “amount” on 1km grid for each layer of model
Predict slant path (visible/IR) detection by integrating layered cloud/aerosol forecasts
For visual acquisition, output defaults clear line of sight that accounts for aerosols as well as clouds.
For IR acquisition, output chemical constituent dependencies per sensor type, target temp,
background temp, etc. in addition to slant path clouds, aerosols. 5

6. GALWEM Global Air-Land Weather Exploitation Model
Not Approved for Public Release
GALWEM Global Air-Land Weather Exploitation Model
19 Nov 2014 USAF Director of Weather announced plans to adopt the Met Office Unified Model (UM) as the USAF authoritative global numerical weather model citing:
Improved support to oversees contingencies by using the same model as many coalition and international allies
Improved forecast quality and meets unique military requirements
Improved enterprise capability by running the UM’s advanced 4DVar data assimilation system
Improved interoperability by standardizing on UM output for machine-to-machine data transfers
30 Mar 2015 USAF Director of Weather assigned the name Global Air-Land Weather Exploitation Model (GALWEM) to the USAF specific implementation of the UM
Global Air Land Weather Exploitation Model

7. GALWEM Forecast Quality
Not Approved for Public Release
GALWEM Forecast Quality

8. GALWEM Transition Status
Not Approved for Public Release
GALWEM Transition Status
GALWEM IOC achieved 1 Oct 2015
Run 4x/day at 17km resolution using initial fields from UKMO
Used as primary NWP input by all forecasting squadrons
Products/Grids available via AFW-WEBS

9. Not Approved for Public Release
*557 WW
557th Weather Wing
**GALWEM
Global Air-Land Weather Exploitation Model Version of UKMO UM
***JULES
Joint UK Land Information Simulator
****PAIS
Point Analysis Intelligence System
USAF Model Roadmap
Implement CLASSIC (UKMO chemical and aerosol model) to support PAIS****
Replace GFS with GALWEM
GFS no longer available at 557WW*
Couple LIS-JULES*** to GALWEM
Decommission WRF 5km and 1.67km windows and implement first GALWEM
hi-res regional domain
12km GALWEM
Decision on Next Generation Atmospheric Model
17km **GALWEM operational
17 PFLOPS
52 TFLOPS
1 PFLOPS
FY14
FY18
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY19
FY20
FY16
FY17
FY15
Decommission WRF regional 45 and 15 km windows
Hybrid 4DVar Operational
Implement additional regional domains
(2-3 per CONOPS)
Demonstrate Model-explicit cloud prediction capability
GALWEM Ensemble added to GEPS
Implement GALWEM regional ensemble for over high priority AORs
Potential addition to NUOPC/NAEFS ensembles

10. USAF R&D/R2O Focus Areas
Not Approved for Public Release
USAF R&D/R2O Focus Areas
Cloud/Obscurant Apps
High resolution nowcasts/rapid update runs
Slant-path EO impacts
Flight Routing Optimization Apps
Low level aviation
Multi-sensor data fusion for high impact weather events
Hydrometerology Apps
Streamflow and flooding (OCONUS)
Monthly and Seasonal Outlooks and Impact Apps

11. Continued US involvement
Not Approved for Public Release
Continued US involvement
Ongoing NWP related collaborative opportunities:
National Earth System Prediction Center (N-ESPC) ensemble forecasts – NWS, Navy, USAF – contribute GALWEM ensemble members to create statistically improved national ensemble output
Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) – USAF intends to be contribute resources toward Joint Effort for Data Assimilation Integration (JEDI) – emphasis on cloud DA
Developmental Test Center (DTC) – Leverage standardized model verification, R2O in cloud data assimilation and forecasting, and validation of unique/specialized DoD apps

12. Questions?