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Fly - Fight - Win 16 th Weather Squadron Evan Kuchera Fine Scale Models and Ensemble 16WS/WXN Template: 28 Feb 06 Air Force Weather Ensembles.

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Presentation on theme: "Fly - Fight - Win 16 th Weather Squadron Evan Kuchera Fine Scale Models and Ensemble 16WS/WXN Template: 28 Feb 06 Air Force Weather Ensembles."— Presentation transcript:

1 Fly - Fight - Win 16 th Weather Squadron Evan Kuchera Fine Scale Models and Ensemble 16WS/WXN Template: 28 Feb 06 Air Force Weather Ensembles

2 Fly - Fight - Win Overview Air Force Weather Operational Ensembles Community development efforts Future plans 2

3 Fly - Fight - Win AFW Operational Ensembles Goals for operational ensembles Reliable, sharp prediction of mission-impact phenomena Tailored products: both quick-look AND detailed Timely! Global Ensemble Prediction Suite (GEPS) 62 members from NCEP, CMC, FNMOC Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction Suite (MEPS) 10 members of WRF-ARW with diverse initial conditions and physics 144 hour “global” at ~25 km, 60 hour regional at 4 km 4 km or “storm scale” will be focus of this talk 3

4 Fly - Fight - Win 4 4 km MEPS domains Green—static running; Blue—relocatable with next upgrade Red—relocatable running now *(Still partly notional as of 1Jun12)

5 Fly - Fight - Win AFW Operational Ensembles Physics configurations No data assimilation, most recently available global model output is interpolated to the domain Only 26 vertical levels—does not seem to degrade quality (Aligo, et. al., 2008) 5 MemberSea ICLand ICIC/LBCLSMMicroPBL 1Navy SSTLISUMNOAHWSM5YSU 2Navy SSTLISGFSRUCGoddardMYJ 3Navy SSTLISGEMNOAHFerrierQNSE 4Navy SSTLISNOGAPSNOAHThompsonMYJ 5Navy SSTLISUMRUCThompsonMYJ 6Navy SSTLISGFSNOAHThompsonQNSE 7Navy SSTLISGEMNOAHGoddardYSU 8Navy SSTLISNOGAPSNOAHWSM5QNSE 9Navy SSTLISUMRUCFerrierQNSE 10Navy SSTLISGFSNOAHWSM5YSU

6 Fly - Fight - Win AFW Operational Ensembles Product Examples 6

7 Fly - Fight - Win Community Efforts Goals for working with the community Ensure AFWA-specific model diagnostics and post- processing routines become part of community code Participate in mock operational testbeds (data and personnel) to ensure ideas and experiences are exchanged Share data when possible Place GEPS derived probabilities onto NOAA NOMADS as part of NUOPC commitment Exploring potential to add operational CONUS 4 km data onto NOAA NOMADS as well Also for development/research when feasible (dev ftp server) 7

8 Fly - Fight - Win Community Efforts Purpose of diagnostics: Access data from the model for “post-processing” while it is available in memory (P99; Creighton) Reduces I/O load Enables tracking of maxima and mimima Given WRF parallelization, is generally cheap Targeted variables Simulated clouds/satellite and radar Clear and rime aircraft icing Precipitation Type/snowfall Surface visibility (fog/precip/dust) Severe weather (lightning/hail/tornado/winds) 8

9 Fly - Fight - Win Community Efforts Becky Adams Selin, AER 9 WRF composite reflectivity WRF diagnostic icing

10 Fly - Fight - Win Community Efforts Testbed participation in the last year: Hydrometeorological Prediction Center: focus on winter hazards during Jan/Feb 2012 Hydrometeorology Testbed (NOAA/ESRL and NCAR/DTC): focus on clouds and precipitation in western CONUS from Dec 2011 to Apr 2012 (P55; Jensen et al) NSSL/Storm Prediction Center: focus on severe convective weather during May/June 2012 Aviation Weather Center: focus on convective impacts to aviation during June 2012 10

11 Fly - Fight - Win Community Efforts 11 NSSL/SPC AWC

12 Fly - Fight - Win Future Goals for future development Ensemble member/system upgrades Increase physics package sophistication, add members, utilize SKEB Diversify SST and land surface ICs, explore EnKF Ensemble post-processing upgrades Diagnostics Create query-able database of all ensemble members Users can request joint probabilities, any time period of choice, etc Ex  probability of heavy snow AND strong winds concurrently Merging with climatology (P30; Hamilton) Ensemble of modeled climatology to reduce biases Apples to apples comparisons between forecast and climo 12

13 Fly - Fight - Win Summary Air Force Weather is executing operational ensemble prediction systems Timely, storm-scale products tailored to mission needs Partnering with larger WRF community Diagnostics contributed back to community code Participating in numerous testbeds Provide data when possible Future Interactive database Migrate to more advanced physics and initial conditions Merge products with climatology 13

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