1. A Mixed Geographically Weighted Approach to Decoupling and Rural Development in the EU-15
Commission of the UE Genedec project (FP )
Francesco Pecci University of Verona - Italy
Maria Sassi University of Pavia - Italy
107th EAAE Seminar "Modeling of Agricultural and Rural Development Policies".
Sevilla, Spain, January 29th -February 1st, 2008

2. Importance of the analysis
Rural development
reform
( )
CAP
reform
( )
Interventions locally based
Agricultural policy
Identification of areas
where the use of
support for Rural
developmet creates
the most value added
at the EU level
The need for …. Where….
Is a priority for the EU.
Integration
with
Health Check
communication
broad development policy
for rural areas
107th EAAE Seminar "Modeling of Agricultural and Rural Development Policies".
Sevilla, Spain, January 29th -February 1st, 2008

3. Two issues for the agricultural sector
1. Importance of the analysis
Identification of a
set of policy
sensitive indicators
Policy decisions can
be spatially varied
across regions
Territorial dimension of
their impact on
agricultural sector
Recognition of spatial
heterogeneity
107th EAAE Seminar "Modeling of Agricultural and Rural Development Policies".
Sevilla, Spain, January 29th -February 1st, 2008

4. Spatial heterogeneity Sevilla, Spain, January 29th -February 1st, 2008
1. Importance of the analysis
OLS
Location specific
A global parameters
DXki
As the understanding of spatial heterogeneity of agricultural productivity marginal respnses is desirable for policy decision I want to make this point more cliar.
Dbki
Dyi
Cov(xki,bki,)
107th EAAE Seminar "Modeling of Agricultural and Rural Development Policies".
Sevilla, Spain, January 29th -February 1st, 2008

5. Spatial heterogeneity Sevilla, Spain, January 29th -February 1st, 2008
1. Importance of the analysis
OLS
MGWR
Some spatial
non stationary
As the understanding of spatial heterogeneity of agricultural productivity marginal respnses is desirable for policy decision I want to make this point more cliar.
Global parameters
Local papameters
107th EAAE Seminar "Modeling of Agricultural and Rural Development Policies".
Sevilla, Spain, January 29th -February 1st, 2008

6. Outline Selection of a set of policy sensitive indicators
1. Importance of the analysis
2. Outline
Selection of a
set of policy
sensitive indicators
Key components of
the reform of the I & II
pillar of the CAP
Estimation of the
spatial non-stationary
parameters affecting
agricultural productivity
Mixed Geographically
Weighted Regression
Identification of groups
of regions with
homogeneous values
of SNS parameters
Kohonen SOM

7. Sevilla, Spain, January 29th -February 1st, 2008
Indicators
1. Importance of the analysis
Demographic
features
Innovation
(R&D and
human capital)
Regional socio-
economic attraction
capacity
2. Outline
3. Indicators
164 EU-15 regions
NUTSII
Regio, FADN
Infrastructure
Agricultural
diversification
Agricultural productivity
Labour
market
Farm Structure
Economic
development
Environmental
sustainability
EU intervention
107th EAAE Seminar "Modeling of Agricultural and Rural Development Policies".
Sevilla, Spain, January 29th -February 1st, 2008

8. Sevilla, Spain, January 29th -February 1st, 2008
Data processing chain
1. Importance of the analysis
3. MGWR
empirical model
2. VIF
1. Initial data
set
2. Object of the analysis
3. Indicators
6. GWR
4. Monte Carlo
test
4. Data processing chain
7. SVD
5a. Global
parameters
5b. Local
parameters
8. Spatial
non-stationary
parameters
10. Kohonen
SOM
classification
11.Regionalization
results
9. Spatial NS
parameters for
classification
107th EAAE Seminar "Modeling of Agricultural and Rural Development Policies".
Sevilla, Spain, January 29th -February 1st, 2008

9. Spatial Non-stationary Parameters
Results
Spatial Non-stationary Parameters
1. Importance of the analysis
Demographic
features
Innovation
(R&D and
human capital)
Regional socio-
economic attraction
capacity
2. Object of the analysis
3. Indicators
164 regions EU-15
Infrastructure
4. Data processing chain
Diversification
Agricultural productivity
5. Results: Non-stationary parameters
Labour
market
The variables affecting only locally the agricultural
productivity are not only agricultural but also
socio-economic and environmental variables
Farm Structure
Economic
development
Environmental
sustainability
EU intervention
107th EAAE Seminar "Modeling of Agricultural and Rural Development Policies".
Sevilla, Spain, January 29th -February 1st, 2008

10. Results: Cluster analysis EU-15
1. Importance of the analysis
2. Object of the analysis
3. Indicators
4. Data processing chain
5. Results: Non-stationary parameters
5.1. Results: Cluster analysis EU-25
107th EAAE Seminar "Modeling of Agricultural and Rural Development Policies".
Sevilla, Spain, January 29th -February 1st, 2008

11. Results: Cluster analysis EU-15
Farm structure, environmental sustainability, physical infrastructures
1. Importance of the analysis
Cluster 5
Diversification in inseparable activities, agric. Sustainability, physical inf.
2. Object of the analysis
Cluster 1
Physical infrastructure
3. Indicators
4. Data processing chain
5. Results: Non-stationary parameters
Cluster 4
Farmers diversification in other gainful act., unemployment, physical infrastructure, total subsidies
5.1. Results: Cluster analysis EU-25
Cluster 6
Diversification, agric. Sustainability, social infrastructures
Cluster 3
Agricultural diversification and sustainability, social infrastructure
107th EAAE Seminar "Modeling of Agricultural and Rural Development Policies".
Sevilla, Spain, January 29th -February 1st, 2008

12. Conclusions Data sources Modulation, regionalization
1. Importance of the analysis
Spatial non-stationarity
matters
Modulation, regionalization
multi-sector and multi-region
interventions
2. Object of the analysis
3. Indicators
4. Data processing chain
Role of the EU (Health Check)
and of the Member States and
Regions (policy design capacity,
Political will,
establishing networks)
Approaches to agricultural and
rural development policy
assessment: a better integration
between partial and GE
approaches
5. Results: Non-stationary parameters
Data sources
5.1. Results: Cluster analysis EU-25
6. Conclusions