1. Don’t Believe Everything You Think: The 6 Basic Mistakes We Make in Thinking- Chapter 9
How We Simplify
Book by: Thomas Kida PowerPoint by: Sarah Holman
FYS

2. Table of Contents Heuristics, What is it?
How Do We Make Our Judgments?
“Neglecting Base Rates.”
The Flaw in Sample Size Ignorance
The “Conjunction Fallacy.”
Stereotyping is a Simplifying Strategy
Heuristic: Availability and the Media
“Anchors Away.”
Conclusion
Questions…
References

3. Heuristics, What is it? back
“Simplify, Simplify, Simplify.”
Used to simplify judgments considered “complicated” or complex.
Can lead to biased and inaccurate judgments.

4. How Do We Make Our Judgments? back
Determined by similarity.
“Instead, we base our judgment on an ambiguous personality description because we think it’s representative..” (p.168).
X Causes Y.
Physical evidence is not always there, but X and Y have similar characteristics.

5. “Neglecting Base Rates.” back
True positive and false positive rates are what can evaluate a test’s “diagnosticity.”
Anyone can fall victim to base rates.
Representation causes people to neglect base rates.
“Regression to the mean” states that extreme values slowly go back to the average. EX) Parents and Children Height.

6. The Flaw in Sample Size Ignorance back
Small samples are NOT as representative.
Does not represent every possibility.
EX) Students and course selection.
Small samples are not as accurate either.
The link above explains why samples are used and has some examples.

7. The “Conjunction Fallacy.” back
“That is, the conjunction, or concurrence, of two events cannot be more likely than either event alone,” (p.175).
We, once again, rely on similarity.

8. Stereotyping is a Simplifying Strategy back
We don’t have to think about how someone will “act.”
Tend to notice characteristics that support the stereotype.
“Imagine what labels do to our subjective judgments of others,” (p.176).

9. Heuristic: Availability and the Media back
Probability is judged by “…the ease with which similar events can be brought to mind,” (p. 176).
What’s easier to come to mind will be thought when considering probability.
Public opinion is linked to media
coverage.

10. “Anchors Away” back
We have an initial estimate, and then build onto it.
Other’s opinions can influence what we think.
Can affect personal and professional aspects of life.
Possibility of severe negative effects.

11. Conclusion back
Simplifying can “get us into trouble” but is not all bad.
Focusing primarily on similarity can result in missing out on important information.
Use similarity carefully.

12. Questions… back
What is Heuristics?
What elements of simplification do you find yourself using most often?
Is public opinion liked to media coverage?

13. References back
Kida, Thomas E. "Chapter 9." Don't Believe Everything You Think: The 6 Basic Mistakes We Make in Thinking. Amherst, NY: Prometheus, N. pag. Print.
"Stereotype Quotes." Famous Quotes about 'Stereotype' N.p., n.d. Web. 29 Sept
Kessler, Josh. "How Does the Media Influence Public Opinion?" Josh Kesslers Civic Issues Blog. N.p., 24 Jan Web. 29 Sept
Ditkoff, Mitch. "The Heart of Innovation: June 2014 Archives." The Heart of Innovation: June 2014 Archives. The Heart of Innovation, n.d. Web. 29 Sept