1. Diversifying the STEM Pathway: A Look at Successful Approaches
Thank you , Renny.
My name is Demi Michelau, and I’m the VP of Policy Analysis and Research, at the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education and co-author of Knocking at the College Door.
Before we get started, WICHE would like to thank ACT and the College Board for their generous financial support of Knocking at the College Door. Without their partnership and collaboration, these projections would not be possible.
AT THE COLLEGE DOOR
Thursday, April 27, 2017
#Knocking2016

2. Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates
Public and Private High School Graduates
Nation
Four Geographical Regions
50 States and DC
First-time projections for Guam/Puerto Rico
Public by Race/Ethnicity
For over 40 years, WICHE has produced projections of the numbers of high school graduates. We do the projections for public and private high school graduates for the nation, four geographical regions, 50 states and DC. For the first time, we made projections for Guam and Puerto Rico. We also do projections by race/ethnicity for public high school graduates.
I’d also like to mention a few details about the data.
We use most recent available data from federal data sources.
U.S. Department of Education public data files
Common Core of Data (National Center for Education Statistics)
Number of births by state and race/ethnicity through 2014, to predict the general trend of youth population through school year
Private School Universe Survey (PSS) for private schools
Race/ethnicity data are for Publics only
Most recent available enrollments data were for school years to
Most recent high school graduates counts were for to
We provide robust detail in the publication, but what this means is that our projections begin in the past – with school year by and large.
Methodology is relatively simple: We use a cohort survival ratio method. Which means that we observe, mathematically, the ratio of the number of students who are in a grade one year compared to the number in the earlier grade the year prior. We use an average from the most recent five years, and give the greatest weight to the most recent year.
We do not explicitly model or quantify the various factors that influence how students progress through school, such as grade retention or early promotion, movement between schools, locales or states, economic or other environmental factors. They are implicit in the enrollment and graduate counts and progression ratios.
You can find detail about the data and methodology in the appendix of the publication.

3. U.S. High School Graduates
So, let’s begin with the national trends for high school graduates.
The big national headlines are that despite the recent improvements in the official high school graduation rate, the sheer number of youth is moderating. This leads to a slowdown and even declines in the number of high school graduates. And, underlying the limited growth and eventual decreased number of high school graduates are long-predicted decreases in the number of White youth – including those who attend and graduate from private schools -- and growing non-White student populations.
The overall number will plateau for most of the next decade
The racial/ethnic mix of high school graduates will continue to shift significantly toward a more diverse population
Private high school graduates continue to decline in number and share

4. U.S. High School Graduates
Projections
Compared to SY
(Thousands)
3.44M
3.56M ('25)
3.30M
640 Hispanic
184 Asian/Pac. Isl.
32 Am. Ind./Alaska Native
474 Black
298 Private Schools
1,839 White
White
Hispanic
The chart on the left shows the populations of public school graduates by race/ethnicity, plus graduates of private schools, from the first projected year to the last. The top line shows the total and several counts over these 18 years. The line chart on the right indicates the year-over-year increase or decrease in the number of each population of graduates over those years, compared to their numbers from the last confirmed school year,
In total - after almost two decades of steady growth in the number of high school graduates averaging about 2% annually, the nation reached a high of about 3.44 million grads around 2013.
Between now and about 2025, there is virtually no increase projected, except for a few years of small increase around 2025, when the nation will produce about 3.5 to 3.6 million high school graduates. After 2025, the number of high school graduates nationally is projected to decrease steadily, to about 3.3 million (about 7 percent fewer by around 2030). These decreases in the outer years arise from long-predicted contraction of the White youth population, compounded by dramatic birth declines for all populations during and after the great recession.
White public school graduates are projected to decrease by 17 percent by the early 2030s, about a quarter million fewer graduates than in Barely a decade and a half ago around 2000, Whites represented 70 percent of all high school graduates. They are projected to be 52 percent of public school graduates by the end of the projections. Unforeseen increases in the number of non-White high school graduates could tip the balance to majority-minority within the span of these projections.
Hispanic high school graduates are the primary growth population, increasing almost 50 percent by 2025, from 640,000 in 2013 to almost 900,000. During the growth years, the additional number of Hispanic graduates more than offsets the declines of White graduates. But then even Hispanic graduates are projected to decrease in number between 2025 and the early 2030s, as a result of the recent birth declines, which were greatest among Hispanics.
Asian/Pacific Islander graduates are the only population projected to increase throughout, but they are only about 5 to 7% of the total number of graduates nationally, so their numbers don’t shift the overall trend of decline.
Black high school graduates are about 15 percent of the national total and they will be relatively steady in number throughout the projections.
The numbers for American Indian/Alaska Native students nationally are very small compared to other students populations, but overall there is a decline.
High school graduates from private religious and independent schools are projected to decrease by about 26 percent, to about 80,000 graduates, in reflection of their largely White student demographic, but also due to significant contraction among religious schools over the last decade or so.
We couldn’t produce separate counts for Hawaiian/Pacific Islander graduates or two or more races graduate, because of data limitations. But recent years indicated Hawaiian/Pacific Islander graduates are about 7 percent of the combined Asian total, or about 10,000 high school graduates in recent years. Graduates of multiple races have represented between 1 to 3 percent of non-Hispanic public high school graduates in recent years.
Black
Asian/Pacific Islander
Private schools

5. Significant Regional Variation
The national projections mask significant variation by region and among the states.
The national projections mask significant variation by region and among the states.

6. Regional Divisions
This slide is here to demonstrate to the audience how we define the regions.( It’s important to note that North and South Dakota are part of the WICHE region (the Census regions have the Dakotas in the Midwest). You can go through this slide fast.)

7. Significant Regional Variation
Total Public and Private High School Graduates
Here we see those regional differences. The number of graduates for each region you see here is the region’s high point.
The Northeast and Midwest reached their high points for high school graduates in school year The number of graduates from these regions have already begun decreasing and will continue to decline throughout the projected years.
The West region – which includes North and South Dakota because they are WICHE member states -- produces about 30 percent of the nation’s high school graduates. The West has long produced the most diverse classes of high school graduates and the greatest number of Hispanic and Asian/Pacific Islander graduates. But by the early 2020s the South region will surpass the West in the number of Hispanic high school graduates, and will rival the West in terms of diversity.

8. The West Tracks the National trend 30% of the Nation’s graduates
And now let’s look at the trends for the Western region.
The West’s share of the nation’s graduates is projected to be about 30 percent of the total throughout the projection period. The West is projected to reach its new high point in with about 860,000 high school graduates. It will remain the second-highest-producing region behind the South during the course of these projections, although it is expected to drop back slightly to about 789,000 graduates by the early 2030s.
Tracks the National trend
30% of the Nation’s graduates
Cedes position as #1 producer of Hispanic graduates to the South by 2025, but remains #1 producer of Asian/Pacific Islander graduates

9. High School Graduates in the Western Region
Projections
862K ('24)
832K
789K
White
Hispanic
The West region has long been the most diverse region, and produced the most Hispanic and Asian/Pacific Islander graduates of all the regions. Perhaps the most surprising for the West is the rapid contraction in high school graduates that is projected after 2025, slightly higher rates of decline than the nation overall. The West is impacted by reductions in the number of White high school graduates, but less so than the nation overall. Rather, the West’s projected declines in high graduate after 2025 arise from dramatic declines in the number of Hispanic graduates.
And, while Asian/Pacific Islander graduates are a growth population for the other regions, in the West their numbers remain at best stable and may even decline slightly.
The West produces almost half of the nation’s American Indian/Alaska Native high school graduates, and their numbers are projected to decrease somewhat over the course of the projections.
Black
Asian/Pacific Islander
American Indian/Alaska Native
Private Schools

10. High School Graduates in the Western Region
Change from SY
(thousands)
278 Hispanic
86 Asian/Pac. Isl.
14 Am. Ind./Alaska Native
42 Black
54 Private Schools
356 White
About 30 percent of the nation’s graduates will be from the Western region by 2030.
While White high school graduates are projected to decline by 10% percent by the early 2030s (about 38,000 fewer than 2013).
The number of Black high school graduates is relatively stable throughout the years projected, at about 36,000 per year (a decline of about 18 percent).
Hispanics are projected to increase from 278,000 to 281,000 (reaching a high point of 343,887 in ) – about 1% growth).
Asian/Pacific Islander graduates have modest growth at around 3%, increasing from 86,000 to 89,000.
American Indian/Alaska Native high school graduates are projected to decrease by about 26% to about 10,588 from 14,403 by the early 2030s.
The West should expect a decline in private high school graduates of about 25 percent, from 54,429 in 2013 to about 40,644 in the early 2030s.

11. Really Robust Increase
High School Graduates by State, Cumulative Percent Change, to
Decline
Moderate Increase
Robust Increase
Really Robust Increase
California (-4%)
New Mexico (6%)
South Dakota (12%)
Utah (29%)
Alaska (-2%)
Oregon (7%)
Arizona (13%)
Idaho (34%)
 Washington (8%)
Nevada (14%)
North Dakota (38%)
 Montana (9%)
Hawaii (17%)
Colorado (18%)
Wyoming (21%)

12. High School Graduates by State
Western Region
821K / year on average
4% by then 8% by
Non-White 3% to 57% of Public Total
California
426,400 on average, 14% by ‘32 Non-White  5% to 74% of Total
Washington
71,800 on average
Non-White  10% to 41% of Total
Arizona
66,900 on average, 14% by ‘32
Non-White  3% to 55% of Total
Finally, let’s take a quick peek at each of the states in the West. The Western region as a whole is shown again…
If a state is not projected to exceed the number of graduates in 2013, it does not have a new high -- you will only see the starting and ending number of graduates.
The states are shown in order or those producing the most graduates. As you can see, California is the top producer, with 13 percent of the nation’s graduates. It’s projected to decline overall but the share of the non-white population is increasing and is expected to by 74 percent of the total by the end of the projection period.
Next you see Washington, which was considered to be moderate increase category, but there is a fairly substantial increase in the share of the non-white population. And, while Arizona is expected to grow in the coming years, overall it will be down about 14% by 2032.

13. High School Graduates by State
Colorado
58,000 on average
Non-White  2% to 38% of Total
Utah
39,600 on average
Non-White  3% to 21% of Total
Oregon
36,500 on average, 7% by ‘32
Non-White  3% to 30% of Total
Nevada
24,700 on average, 12% by ‘32
Non-White  8% to 60% of Total
Idaho
21,000 on average
Non-White  8% to 26% of Total
New Mexico
20,200 on average,15% by ‘32
Non-White  6% to 77% of Total
The non-white populations in Colorado, Utah, and Oregon are all increasing around 2-3 percent, but of these, Utah is overall expected to grow in the short term much more rapidly (around 29 percent by 2025).
Nevada, Idaho, and New Mexico all show short term growth (with the most rapid being in Idaho) but again you see that downturn in the later years. The diversification, however, is seen at about the same rate in these three states. The notable difference here is in Nevada with fairly substantial growth in the Black population (although not very large numbers) and in New Mexico, there is growth in the near future among American Indians before the decline in numbers.

14. High School Graduates by State
Hawaii
14,600 on average
Non-White  3% to 89% of Total
Montana
10,000 on average
Non-White  5% to 18% of Total
South Dakota
9,200 on average
Non-White  14% to 26% of Total
North Dakota
8,900 on average
Non-White  20% to 32% of Total
Alaska
7,900 on average
Non-White  5% to 45% of Total
Wyoming
6,200 on average
Non-White  5% to 19% of Total
Finally, in some of the region’s small states, like Hawaii, Montana, and South Dakota, you see steady growth, but notice the increase in the non-White population in South Dakota. And notably, while overall the numbers are small in North Dakota, the increase is quite remarkable, and the increase in the non-white population is certainly noteworthy.
Our smallest states – Alaska and Wyoming – can expect about a 5 percent increase in the share of the non-White population, but while Alaska overall is expected to decline a bit in overall numbers, Wyoming can expect a fairly substantial increase.

15. www.knocking.wiche.edu Report State Profiles Download Data
You can obtain the projections in a variety of formats by going to our website at
You can get PDF copies of the report, which includes the state-by-state numbers in Appendix A.
You can download the projections as an Excel file on the Data page. And, you can view State, Regional and National Profiles about the projections and including other contextual indicators such as academic preparation, educational attainment and family incomes by race/ethnicity for the state.

16. For More Information
Demi Michelau Vice President, Policy Analysis and Research, WICHE or Peace Bransberger Senior Research Analyst, WICHE or #knocking2016